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Nate Silver: Romney now a 60/40 favorite in Florida after addition of Mason-Dixon poll.
New York Times ^ | October 12, 2012 | Nate Silver

Posted on 10/11/2012 9:03:20 PM PDT by Arec Barrwin

Florida now in Romney column per Nate Silver (60.1% chance of winning) -- as is Colorado.

Romney is surging hard.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; fl2012; florida; obama; romney
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To: C. Edmund Wright
"If Nate Silver were back peddling any faster, he would need a damned back up beeper...."

What I can't understand, is that this supposed whiz kid can't understand, is aggregating dated polls is useless, and wrong. It makes him wrong, it makes the RCP wrong...

Whereas the Bickers-Berry Univ. of Colorado model simply ignores polls, uses a meta econ mode instead, and gets 8 straight.

41 posted on 10/12/2012 7:24:02 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, CO, IA OR NV = 281EV)
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To: BradyLS
"I think GOP presidential candidates need to visit states like that for at least one solid stop to show the faithful and independents that the candidate is willing to step into the lion's den and show voters that they are not forgotten or considered a hopeless cause."

Grand Rapids. No brainer.

42 posted on 10/12/2012 7:32:23 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, CO, IA OR NV = 281EV)
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To: Arec Barrwin

Until the first Obama debate, there were essentially no yard signs that I’ve seen in Boulder County. Since the debate, Romney signs have sprouted everywhere, but no Obama signs have been put up. Even more interesting, lots of down-ticket signs have sprouted as well, including a large number of signs for Democrats. Many of the Democrat yards look like a forest of signs. But not a single one of these Democrat forests sprout an Obama sign! These folks are either ashamed that they’re going to vote for Obama or they’re going to sit out that race. Maybe a few will even vote for Romney.


43 posted on 10/12/2012 8:12:13 AM PDT by catnipman (Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!)
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To: Arec Barrwin; kingattax

More good news for FL.


44 posted on 10/12/2012 9:47:44 AM PDT by left that other site (Worry is the Darkroom that Develops Negatives.)
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To: left that other site

even the alligators arent voting for obozo


45 posted on 10/12/2012 10:43:21 AM PDT by kingattax (99 % of liberals give the rest a bad name)
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To: catnipman

I have seen the same thing here in NH. The loyal dems in the neighborhood have the signs up for the liberal US congressional and state reps, but no Obama signs.

I think they MAY secretly vote for Romney or not at all.


46 posted on 10/12/2012 10:52:38 AM PDT by woodbutcher1963
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To: kingattax

And those alligators are smarter than liberals.

Never underestimate the power of the reptilian brain.


47 posted on 10/12/2012 11:27:53 AM PDT by left that other site (Worry is the Darkroom that Develops Negatives.)
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To: StAnDeliver
What I can't understand, is that this supposed whiz kid can't understand, is aggregating dated polls is useless, and wrong. It makes him wrong, it makes the RCP wrong...

You are onto something bigger than just Nate Silver and polling - these pointy headed Ivy League liberals live in a faculty lounge classroom world, where they control all the inputs - and the results - and they tend to think the real world works that way. Of course, it does not. It is this blindness about life in general that leads to the sheer sophistry of buying into the RCP polls, which as you say, are all built on phony building blocks.

48 posted on 10/12/2012 12:08:58 PM PDT by C. Edmund Wright ("You Might Be a Liberal" (YMBAL) Coming out Sept 1 by C. Edmund Wright)
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To: goldstategop

Nate Silver is a former dKOS poster.

He is vastly under estimating ROmney’s changes, which he now pegs at 38%!!!

That’s right, Romney has been ahead in national polls for a week now, yet he is at 38!! in Nate Silver’s probability meter. It’s a laughable joke. Even RCP is better than that.
They flipped to Romney lead.

Romney has leads in CO, NV, VA, NH as well as FL. This is enough for a win, even without OH, but he will win OH as well.


49 posted on 10/12/2012 6:29:55 PM PDT by WOSG (REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA. He stole America’s promise!)
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To: woodbutcher1963

“I have seen the same thing here in NH. The loyal dems in the neighborhood have the signs up for the liberal US congressional and state reps, but no Obama signs.”

My suspicion is that this is probably happening across many parts of the country, maybe even most parts excepting some of the cores of the die-hard Communist cities.

An enterprising journalist (if there was even ONE such critter left in the entire country) could get a very interesting story out of this phenomena, exploring such issues as to what it means, whether it’s ever happened in the past, why people are refusing to put up Obama signs, how many put up signs four years ago but won’t now, and what it means with respect to how they may or may not be changing their vote from four years ago, and what it might mean for Obama’s re-election chances.

(I realize, of course, the futility of expecting that there might be at least one enterprising journalist left in our country.)


50 posted on 10/12/2012 7:17:13 PM PDT by catnipman (Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!)
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To: catnipman

I hate to say this, but signs for well-known candidates are useless. The signs for the local candidates are the only ones that matter, in terms of actually helping campaigns.

That said, there’s been plenty of anecdotal evidence that ‘the thrill is gone’ for Obama.


51 posted on 10/12/2012 9:06:40 PM PDT by WOSG (REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA. He stole America’s promise!)
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To: WOSG

“I hate to say this, but signs for well-known candidates are useless. The signs for the local candidates are the only ones that matter, in terms of actually helping campaigns.”

That makes sense, but the point is that in 2008 there were massive number of Obama yard signs, and now there are none. The “thrill” is indeed gone.


52 posted on 10/13/2012 10:40:11 AM PDT by catnipman (Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!)
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To: catnipman

I agree on that. Obama signs are much rarer.

Was out of town and saw some 4x8 Romney/Ryan signs driving back on country roads, Texas... I’ve seen more Romney/Ryan than I saw McCain/Palin.

And the other signal - crowd sizes - looking good for Romney.
He’s getting 10,000+ crowds at swing state events daily this past week. Impressive!

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2944725/posts


53 posted on 10/14/2012 2:48:59 PM PDT by WOSG (REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA. He stole America’s promise!)
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