Skip to comments.ARG State Polls: NH R 50 O 46; FL R 49 O 46
Posted on 10/12/2012 8:21:37 AM PDT by nhwingut
Click on each state for survey details. Totals may not add up to 100% because of rounding.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanresearchgroup.com ...
Keep on smiling, Joe!
Florida - The party ID in the survey was D +3 (Dem 40, Rep 37, Independent 23). In 2008 it was also D +3 (Dem 37, Rep 34, Ind 29) and in 2004 it was R+4 (Dem 37, Rep 41, Ind 23).
What a calming affect it has now that we can take off our tinfoil hats and start believing in all the polls. I, for one, am sleeping better.
Could it be that the pollsters have decided they were backing a lost cause and are now moving to protect their reputations. Methinks so.
Yes - bit by bit they’re changing the party affiliation breakdown to result in publicly reasonable numbers. Hence they’re getting closer to reality.
The polls have always said the same thing when you account for party affiliation breakdown. Math is a wonderful thing.
I think Suffolk is right - Florida will go to Romney fairly easily. I also think that Virginia will go to Romney by about 3-5%.
The big wild card here is Ohio. We need to lock down that state.
Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 87% to 9% among self-described Democrats (39% of likely voters). Romney leads Obama 92% to 5% among self-described Republicans (33% of likely voters). And Romney leads Obama 52% to 42% among self-described independent voters (28% of likely voters).
This is from the poll of October 9th. The results of this poll were Romney leading 48-47 with a D+6 sample!
With regard to the NH poll:
Obama won NH 54-45. According to the poll you posted, Romney's beating him there by a lot. That's stunning.
So the correct meme is: ARG shows GOP losing, ARG is trash. ARG shows GOP winning, ARG is great. I submit that from past history, ARG is pretty much trash all the time.
Whats TN look like ???
Early voting starts Wednesday...
Their electoral vote calculator is a nice tool, though. I was able to determine that my previous prediction of a 360-178 Romney victory doesn't work very well. I have revised it to 358-180.
I could only come up with 352 for Romney - where are you getting the other 8?
My personal worst case prediction was 306 for Romney (6 weeks ago). I hope we are all right.
Even Long John Nate Silver is starting to back up in preparation to say “wow, the race really is shifting!” Most of these pollsters are real lowlifes.
I know that Romney is now ahead in FL and pretty much will sweep the south. Now that being said, is there a real possibility that he could win NH?
Additional 6 you mean? How about Iowa?
Atonement for Souter, one could say.
Man...if we can get NH it makes it awfully close and gives us a few routes to 270 w/o OH. We would then need IA. Lets just hope we just win OH. I am just hoping that all the undecideds break for Mitt which usually happens.
NH has alot of independents, which might explain Mitts lead. But I am still suspect.
Drudge has a link on his home page saying that 0bama has only CA, DE, DC, IL, MA, MD, NY, RI, and VT locked up.
The party ID in the survey was R +6 (Dem 29, Rep 35, Independent 36). In 2008 it was also D +2 (Dem 29, Rep 27, Ind 45) and in 2004 it was R+7 (Dem 25, Rep 32, Ind 44).
Atonement for Souter, one could say.
Thats an interesting swing, but considering the economy, the electorate may be more like 2004.
Rand Paul is coming to NH to campaign for RR.
On Background, Ohio usually shows heavy totals for the Democrats who vote early or by absentee, While the Republicans vote in mass on election day. If only election day was counted in 2008 John McCain would have won the state.
The Democrat numbers are way down from total in 2008. They may be ahead but they are way behind because the Republicans have increased their numbers throughout all the state counties. Knowing that Repbulicans come out to vote on election day, this spells trouble for Obozo.
So, Republican enthusiasm is very important and the word from my friends and family on the ground there is that Ohio has very few Obozo signs and stickers on the cars. Romney signage is popping up in the Northeastern Ohio area and IN MY OLD County, Summit, the Romney campaign is all out of signage and they are saying it's like that all over. The carpet bombing of ads is beginning throughout the state for Romney and my mother was telling me they're devastating for Obozo.
Who's "Glove"? Do you mean Romney-Ryan?
Sorry... I was up way too late again last night. I'm a bit slow today... ;-)
Yes, “Glove” = Mittens. :)
Credit to Impy for thinking it up.
if obambi loses VA OH NH, he can only get to 268. So NH is key.
if obambi Wins OH, he needs 15 more from:
i think this is correct.
We just need to keep an eye on the polls as we get nearer to election day. I know they are becoming more accurate, but I still am nervous about voter fraud. Romney needs a good sized lead to overcome this.
I am in King County in Washington State and I am seeing NOTHING for Obama at all. Not saying Obama won’t win here, just noting what a big difference it is from 2008.
I'm guessing Obama was perceived to be be the more libertarian choice over GWB. Four years of Leftist reality have made Romney look like the more libertarian option, this time.
Young voters are especially vulnerable to Leftist deception - they naturally lean libertarian and are easily scared into thinking the big, bad social conservatives are coming to take away their birthdays. The Democrats are experts at playing libertarian - while presiding over the most suffocating expansion of government power in the history of the free world. It would be so easy to head off such stupidity, but the RNC never seems to have any kind of successful outreach to college-age voters. The attitude seems to be "They'll learn, eventually."
Obama is having an effect on individual races within Illinois as well:
Illinois is zombie-like in its approach to politics, yet here we are with six GOPers all of them on the TEA Party side of the aisle very competitive.
Keep in mind that this is after Madigan created a no-lose Democrat district map.
Sure would be nice if Christie could help deliver NJ for Mitt.
Or even in DE.
My prediction from a couple of month ago was CA, HI, IL, DC, MD, DE, and perhaps PA since the voter ID law was delayed.
Thanks for pinging these articles.
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