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ARG State Polls: NH R 50 O 46; FL R 49 O 46
ARG ^ | 10/12/2012 | Staff

Posted on 10/12/2012 8:21:37 AM PDT by nhwingut

Click on each state for survey details. Totals may not add up to 100% because of rounding.

(Excerpt) Read more at americanresearchgroup.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; fl; nh; polls
Mitt-mentum!!
1 posted on 10/12/2012 8:21:39 AM PDT by nhwingut
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To: nhwingut

Keep on smiling, Joe!


2 posted on 10/12/2012 8:24:44 AM PDT by GnL
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To: nhwingut

Florida - The party ID in the survey was D +3 (Dem 40, Rep 37, Independent 23). In 2008 it was also D +3 (Dem 37, Rep 34, Ind 29) and in 2004 it was R+4 (Dem 37, Rep 41, Ind 23).


3 posted on 10/12/2012 8:25:11 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: nhwingut

What a calming affect it has now that we can take off our tinfoil hats and start believing in all the polls. I, for one, am sleeping better.

Could it be that the pollsters have decided they were backing a lost cause and are now moving to protect their reputations. Methinks so.


4 posted on 10/12/2012 8:25:43 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: InterceptPoint

Yes - bit by bit they’re changing the party affiliation breakdown to result in publicly reasonable numbers. Hence they’re getting closer to reality.

The polls have always said the same thing when you account for party affiliation breakdown. Math is a wonderful thing.


5 posted on 10/12/2012 8:28:12 AM PDT by Principled (Vote Romney to stop Obama. Vote for conservative Reps and Senators to stop Romney. [ZET 7/30/12])
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To: InterceptPoint

I think Suffolk is right - Florida will go to Romney fairly easily. I also think that Virginia will go to Romney by about 3-5%.

The big wild card here is Ohio. We need to lock down that state.


6 posted on 10/12/2012 8:29:38 AM PDT by mrs9x
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To: nhwingut
From the link:

-------------------------------------------------------
Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 87% to 9% among self-described Democrats (39% of likely voters). Romney leads Obama 92% to 5% among self-described Republicans (33% of likely voters). And Romney leads Obama 52% to 42% among self-described independent voters (28% of likely voters).
--------------------------------------------------------
This is from the poll of October 9th. The results of this poll were Romney leading 48-47 with a D+6 sample!

With regard to the NH poll:
Obama won NH 54-45. According to the poll you posted, Romney's beating him there by a lot. That's stunning.

7 posted on 10/12/2012 8:30:56 AM PDT by Personal Responsibility (The Left blaming Jim Lehrer for the debate is like blaming Lincoln's assassination on the play.i of)
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To: nhwingut

So the correct meme is: ARG shows GOP losing, ARG is trash. ARG shows GOP winning, ARG is great. I submit that from past history, ARG is pretty much trash all the time.


8 posted on 10/12/2012 8:30:57 AM PDT by Ingtar (Everyone complains about the weather, but only Liberals try to legislate it.)
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To: nhwingut

Whats TN look like ???

Early voting starts Wednesday...


9 posted on 10/12/2012 8:38:10 AM PDT by Tennessee Nana
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To: Ingtar
I submit that from past history, ARG is pretty much trash all the time.

Their electoral vote calculator is a nice tool, though. I was able to determine that my previous prediction of a 360-178 Romney victory doesn't work very well. I have revised it to 358-180.

10 posted on 10/12/2012 8:43:50 AM PDT by Homer_J_Simpson ("Every nation has the government that it deserves." - Joseph de Maistre (1753-1821))
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To: Homer_J_Simpson

I could only come up with 352 for Romney - where are you getting the other 8?

My personal worst case prediction was 306 for Romney (6 weeks ago). I hope we are all right.


11 posted on 10/12/2012 8:53:25 AM PDT by monkeypants (It's a Republic, if you can keep it.)
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To: InterceptPoint

Even Long John Nate Silver is starting to back up in preparation to say “wow, the race really is shifting!” Most of these pollsters are real lowlifes.


12 posted on 10/12/2012 8:58:03 AM PDT by Viennacon
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To: nhwingut

I know that Romney is now ahead in FL and pretty much will sweep the south. Now that being said, is there a real possibility that he could win NH?


13 posted on 10/12/2012 9:01:33 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: monkeypants

Additional 6 you mean? How about Iowa?


14 posted on 10/12/2012 9:03:51 AM PDT by Homer_J_Simpson ("Every nation has the government that it deserves." - Joseph de Maistre (1753-1821))
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To: nhwingut; Impy; fieldmarshaldj; Clintonfatigued; AuH2ORepublican; nutmeg
NH is in the bag for Glove; Sununu, Sr. has done a terrific job in rebuilding the NH GOP. I love the way he's been pitbulling the MSM.

Atonement for Souter, one could say.

15 posted on 10/12/2012 9:05:55 AM PDT by GOPsterinMA (The Glove don't fit, but it's better than a burqa.)
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To: monkeypants

Man...if we can get NH it makes it awfully close and gives us a few routes to 270 w/o OH. We would then need IA. Lets just hope we just win OH. I am just hoping that all the undecideds break for Mitt which usually happens.


16 posted on 10/12/2012 9:08:18 AM PDT by thepatriot1 (...brought to you courtesy of the Red, White and Blue)
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To: Personal Responsibility

NH has alot of independents, which might explain Mitts lead. But I am still suspect.


17 posted on 10/12/2012 9:12:36 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: monkeypants; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; ...

Drudge has a link on his home page saying that 0bama has only CA, DE, DC, IL, MA, MD, NY, RI, and VT locked up.


18 posted on 10/12/2012 9:17:50 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: KC_Conspirator

The party ID in the survey was R +6 (Dem 29, Rep 35, Independent 36). In 2008 it was also D +2 (Dem 29, Rep 27, Ind 45) and in 2004 it was R+7 (Dem 25, Rep 32, Ind 44).


19 posted on 10/12/2012 9:18:59 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: GOPsterinMA
NH is in the bag for Glove; Sununu, Sr. has done a terrific job in rebuilding the NH GOP. I love the way he's been pitbulling the MSM.

Atonement for Souter, one could say.

Good thought.

20 posted on 10/12/2012 9:22:52 AM PDT by aposiopetic
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To: aposiopetic

Thank you.


21 posted on 10/12/2012 9:24:28 AM PDT by GOPsterinMA (The Glove don't fit, but it's better than a burqa.)
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To: Perdogg

Thats an interesting swing, but considering the economy, the electorate may be more like 2004.


22 posted on 10/12/2012 9:25:49 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: GOPsterinMA

Rand Paul is coming to NH to campaign for RR.


23 posted on 10/12/2012 9:27:29 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Perdogg

Excellent!


24 posted on 10/12/2012 9:31:11 AM PDT by GOPsterinMA (The Glove don't fit, but it's better than a burqa.)
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To: thepatriot1
You can watch this site for the Ohio returns on the absentee ballots and the early voting is also being counted in those numbers so they change daily or every couple of days in each county.

On Background, Ohio usually shows heavy totals for the Democrats who vote early or by absentee, While the Republicans vote in mass on election day. If only election day was counted in 2008 John McCain would have won the state.

The Democrat numbers are way down from total in 2008. They may be ahead but they are way behind because the Republicans have increased their numbers throughout all the state counties. Knowing that Repbulicans come out to vote on election day, this spells trouble for Obozo.

So, Republican enthusiasm is very important and the word from my friends and family on the ground there is that Ohio has very few Obozo signs and stickers on the cars. Romney signage is popping up in the Northeastern Ohio area and IN MY OLD County, Summit, the Romney campaign is all out of signage and they are saying it's like that all over. The carpet bombing of ads is beginning throughout the state for Romney and my mother was telling me they're devastating for Obozo.

25 posted on 10/12/2012 10:21:11 AM PDT by thingumbob (I'm a bitter clinger...I dare you to take my gun)
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To: GOPsterinMA
NH is in the bag for Glove

Who's "Glove"? Do you mean Romney-Ryan?

Sorry... I was up way too late again last night. I'm a bit slow today... ;-)

26 posted on 10/12/2012 10:45:23 AM PDT by nutmeg (I'm with Sarah Palin and Ted Cruz: Romney / Ryan 2012)
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To: nutmeg; Impy

Yes, “Glove” = Mittens. :)

Credit to Impy for thinking it up.


27 posted on 10/12/2012 10:51:04 AM PDT by GOPsterinMA (The Glove don't fit, but it's better than a burqa.)
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To: thepatriot1; GOPsterinMA

if obambi loses VA OH NH, he can only get to 268. So NH is key.

if obambi Wins OH, he needs 15 more from:

NV 6
CO 9
IA 6
WI 10

i think this is correct.


28 posted on 10/12/2012 11:01:52 AM PDT by campaignPete R-CT (and we are still campaigning for local conservatives in central CT.)
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To: Perdogg

We just need to keep an eye on the polls as we get nearer to election day. I know they are becoming more accurate, but I still am nervous about voter fraud. Romney needs a good sized lead to overcome this.


29 posted on 10/12/2012 11:07:57 AM PDT by Catsrus
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To: thingumbob

I am in King County in Washington State and I am seeing NOTHING for Obama at all. Not saying Obama won’t win here, just noting what a big difference it is from 2008.


30 posted on 10/12/2012 11:16:10 AM PDT by CityCenter (It's too late, Obama yeah, it's too late.)
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To: thingumbob
The carpet bombing of ads is beginning throughout the state for Romney and my mother was telling me they're devastating for Obozo.

I've been wondering when that would start up. Here in Idaho I've seen about 1 Obama ad a day (all on national networks, no local buys of course) and 1 Romney ad total. Come to think of it, I've seen only a handful of R/R signs and no Obama signs either, just local candidate signs. Virtually no new bumper stickers either.

Being in a state that's locked up for a party definitely cuts back on the noise :)
31 posted on 10/12/2012 11:20:31 AM PDT by verum ago (Some people must truly be in love, for only love can be so blind.)
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To: thingumbob

Great site!!


32 posted on 10/12/2012 11:30:36 AM PDT by thepatriot1 (...brought to you courtesy of the Red, White and Blue)
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To: Personal Responsibility
Obama won NH 54-45. According to the poll you posted, Romney's beating him there by a lot. That's stunning.

I'm guessing Obama was perceived to be be the more libertarian choice over GWB. Four years of Leftist reality have made Romney look like the more libertarian option, this time.

Young voters are especially vulnerable to Leftist deception - they naturally lean libertarian and are easily scared into thinking the big, bad social conservatives are coming to take away their birthdays. The Democrats are experts at playing libertarian - while presiding over the most suffocating expansion of government power in the history of the free world. It would be so easy to head off such stupidity, but the RNC never seems to have any kind of successful outreach to college-age voters. The attitude seems to be "They'll learn, eventually."

33 posted on 10/12/2012 11:39:36 AM PDT by Mr. Jeeves (CTRL-GALT-DELETE)
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To: Perdogg

Obama is having an effect on individual races within Illinois as well:
http://capitolfax.com/2012/10/12/poll-all-six-congressional-races-super-tight/

Illinois is zombie-like in its approach to politics, yet here we are with six GOPers all of them on the TEA Party side of the aisle very competitive.

Keep in mind that this is after Madigan created a no-lose Democrat district map.


34 posted on 10/12/2012 3:33:17 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: Perdogg

Sure would be nice if Christie could help deliver NJ for Mitt.


35 posted on 10/12/2012 6:15:39 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: SoFloFreeper

Or even in DE.


36 posted on 10/12/2012 6:19:23 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Perdogg

My prediction from a couple of month ago was CA, HI, IL, DC, MD, DE, and perhaps PA since the voter ID law was delayed.

Thanks for pinging these articles.


37 posted on 10/12/2012 6:57:08 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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