Posted on 10/12/2012 10:33:39 AM PDT by libh8er
Presidential candidate Mitt Romney is poised to win one of Maine’s electoral votes if the results of a poll released Thursday hold true through the Nov. 6 election.
Maine’s 2nd Congressional District in the northern part of the state supports Romney over President Barack Obama by five percentage points, 49 percent to 44 percent, a result that according to a story by Politico is outside the NMB Research poll’s margin of error. On a statewide basis, Obama leads 48 percent to 44 percent, which means he would get two of Maine’s four electoral votes. Obama would presumably also win the 1st District, giving him a third electoral vote in Maine.
Maine is one of only two states in the country that splits its electoral vote by congressional district. If Romney wins in the north, he would receive one of Maine’s four electoral votes, which given the closeness of the race could conceivably tip the results in Romney’s favor. According to a New York Times polling analysis blog called FiveThirtyEight, the probability that Maine’s second congressional district could decide the election stood at 0.7 percent as of Thursday, a scenario that ranked 10th as a probable outcome among battleground states. The likelihood that the electoral vote could be decided in first-place Ohio, by comparison, was about 44 percent, according to the blog. Maine has not voted for a Republican in a presidential election since 1988.
Politico reports that Glen Bolger of NMB Research polled 500 likely voters on October 7 and 8, giving the poll a margin of error of about 4 percent. It was unknown how many of the people polled were from the 2nd District.
Awesome. Every single EV counts!!
But 0 only being at 48 statewide ism not good news for his campaign.
That one EV could make a difference in some scenarios and wouldn’t it pull the rug out from under the Democrats’ push to count EVs by congressional districts?
Awesome! Way to go team RomneyRyan keep it up!
Awesome. Every single EV counts!!
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Absolutely. Take nothing for granted. Fight for everything.
I live in Maine’s second congressional district, and I’m thrilled by this news.
I’ve seen more Romney lawn signs than Obama lawn signs, so I figured Romney has a chance in this part of Maine.
One house has not only a Romney sign, but also a vintage wooden chair with a golf club propped upon it. On Tuesday, I drove down another street and there was a chair on the side of the road with a huge sign in bold letter which said, “EMPTY CHAIR.”
Southern Maine is closer to Massachusetts and has a number of Mass. transplants who live there (and they brought their liberal voting patterns with them).
In 2010, Maine elected a TEA Party conservative, Paul LePage, as governor, it was this district....the second congressional district....that put LePage over the top. Maine also elected a GOP Senate and GOP House in 2010, the first time this happened since the early 1960’s.
I saw both Romney ads and Obama ads on TV during the Summer Olympics, but I haven’t seen another ad from either campaign until Monday night, October 1st. Shortly before 9:00 PM, there was a Romney ad called “Why I Changed My Vote.” It featured about four women who voted for Obama in 2008 but each woman said that in 2012 they are planning to vote for Romney.....then they explained why they were doing so. It’s the only ad I saw.....I wish they would run this ad every ten minutes. It was great....definitely NOT squishy.
He's still campaigning in all 57 states, nonetheless.
Don’t be shocked if Romney carries both congressional districts in the state of Maine. He is likely to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and several other states that are now considered “likely Obama.”
I’m looking for a Romney/Ryan LANDSLIDE!0000oooooooo......___
I’d like to see every state adopt Maine’s system- it would put every state in play and give more clout to rural and small-town voters.
Wow Obama could lose the entire state of Maine, just as he is losing NH.
It’s so fun to see the states drip drip dripping away from that fraud:
IN
NC
FL
CO
VA
On and on...or as Obama would say - FORWARD!
What a dunce reporter! It is mathematically impossible to win the two electors selected statewide and lose both congressional districts. Under Maine's system, there is no way it can split 2/2.
The meltdown the lefties had when Pennsylvania was seriously considering adopting such as system last year was a sight to behold. In the end, our Quisling State GOP Chairman did some arm twisting to prevent it from even advancing to the legislative floor for serious debate. Instead, they gave us a voter ID law as a booby prize.
A single fudgepacking judge got that law suspended last week.
What a dunce reporter! It is mathematically impossible to win the two electors selected statewide and lose both congressional districts. Under Maine's system, there is no way it can split 2/2.
The meltdown the lefties had when Pennsylvania was seriously considering adopting such as system last year was a sight to behold. In the end, our Quisling State GOP Chairman did some arm twisting to prevent it from even advancing to the legislative floor for serious debate. Instead, they gave us a voter ID law as a booby prize.
A single fudgepacking judge got that law suspended last week.
In 08 there were lots of obama signs in Steuben and Milbridge. There are no signs this year. No bumper stickers either. Maybe the cost of fuel for all those boats have cut through the “hope & change” fog.
I can report that none of my neighbors, 90% democrat, all very excited about Obama in 2008, have mentioned his name once in conversations over the past couple months - and they are an educated but not rich, opinionated group.
Nobody talks politics at all. In 2008, everyone was yelping and yapping.
I suspect shame is a significant feeling amongst many educated Maine moderate democrats who voted for O here in 2008.
A vote for Obama coming out of Maine is very different from a vote for Obama coming out of ObamaPhone inner cities.
It's the dreamy, idealistic vote. Not much dreamy or idealistic came out of the past 4 years, unless you hate this country. Mainers don't.
They'll never vote for Romney because of the dissonance it would create within their own identities, but nor will they turn out for Obama anywhere near the way they did in 08.
Given the current 4 point poll, retaking Maine is conceivable if the surge turns into a 2008 style phenomenon ... that is ... if RR becomes a bandwagon campaign.
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