Posted on 10/12/2012 7:46:28 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
The possibility that Mitt Romney could win the popular vote while Barack Obama wins the vote in the Electoral College has been discussed throughout this campaign. In recent days, we've seen pieces from Nate Silver, Nate Cohn, Harry Enten and RCP's Scott Conroy exploring the issue. Obama Campaign Manager Jim Messina has even referenced the potential discrepancy, urging reporters to look at the state polls rather than the national surveys.
How likely is this, really? History suggests "not very," unless the race is extremely close. This is because the Electoral College and the popular vote almost always line up reasonably well.
Take a look at the following chart.
It lists presidential races going back to 1952 (prior to 1952, the ensuing exercise is difficult to apply because of the "Solid South"). The second column lists the state from which the candidate who won the popular vote received his 270th electoral vote.
That’s a bit abstract, but think of it this way: In 2008, Barack Obama won Washington, D.C., by 86 percentage points, his largest margin of victory anywhere. That gave him his first three electoral votes. The next largest margin was in his home state of Hawaii, which he won by 45 points. That gave him four more electoral votes, for a total of seven.
Continuing this exercise (Obama won Vermont by 37 points for a total of 10; he won Rhode Island by 28 for a total of 14 . . .), we come to Colorado as the state that gave him the clinching electoral vote -- number 270.
The third column is the national margin for the candidate who won the popular vote. The fourth column is that candidate’s margin of victory in the state that provided him electoral vote number 270
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
You are quite correct. I’ve been reading a lot of Civil War history recently and there’s a bunch of lame duck session covered. However, that flaw in the Constitution was settled by the 20th Amend.
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Most plausible 269-269 scenario is Obama wins OH PA MI WI NH, Romney wins FL NC VA CO NV IA
I don’t think that’s quite right. NH only has 4 EVs. So giving him the 1 EV from Maine plus CO, Romney needs 12 more EVs. NH/IA or NH/NV would only get him 10. NV/IA would be exactly 12. And WI has 10, so WI plus any of the other 3 would do it.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
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