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Poll: Romney Opens 7-Point Lead in Florida
commentarymagazine.com/ ^ | 10/12/12 | Alana Goodman

Posted on 10/13/2012 12:27:52 AM PDT by Justaham

Mitt Romney’s 7-point lead in the TBT/Herald/Mason-Dixon poll is the latest sign of a Florida surge:

The survey conducted this week found 51 percent of likely Florida voters supporting Romney, 44 percent backing Obama and 4 percent undecided. That’s a major shift from a month ago when the same poll showed Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent — and a direct result of what Obama himself called a “bad night” at the first debate.

The debate prompted 5 percent of previously undecided voters and 2 percent of Obama backers to move to Romney. Another 2 percent of Obama supporters said they are now undecided because of the debate.

(Excerpt) Read more at commentarymagazine.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: 2012polls

1 posted on 10/13/2012 12:27:59 AM PDT by Justaham
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To: Justaham

Good deal! I wonder where he’s at in Ohio?


2 posted on 10/13/2012 12:31:26 AM PDT by tsowellfan
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To: Justaham

If they couldn’t turn the seniors against Romney/Ryan, they’re in serious trouble.

Things are solidifying like I thought they would. I couldn’t believe Obama wouldn’t get trounced, what with his lousy record.


3 posted on 10/13/2012 12:39:10 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Biden disrespect wasn't limited to Ryan. It was an insult to me and every other U. S. Citizen.)
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To: tsowellfan

OH is the place to be, apparently. It’s all about the big
O-HI-O


4 posted on 10/13/2012 1:51:59 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: Justaham

Personally, I never thought Romney was behind. That was simply the narrative the MSM and $150 million in campaign advertising did. I think Romney was ALWAYS 7 points ahead in Virginia and Florida.


5 posted on 10/13/2012 3:16:27 AM PDT by MuttTheHoople (Pray for Joe Biden- Proverbs 29:9)
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To: Justaham

Maybe the Jewish vote in Florida will finally have grown tired of 0bama.

This is going to get me flamed and probably be banned, but the Christian Right in the the Republican Party need to stop trying the save all the Jews souls by wanting to convert them.

In my opinion that has been the tool that the Dem’s have used to lock up their votes.


6 posted on 10/13/2012 3:47:36 AM PDT by hadaclueonce (you are paying 12% more for fuel because of Ethanol. Smile big Corn Lobby,)
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To: snarkytart

Ohio should be broken up and sold off.


7 posted on 10/13/2012 5:28:45 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: Justaham

Something smells this morning. The MSM touting Romney in the lead, it smells like a desperate attempt to get out the Obama vote by scaring them. And perhaps plant some complacency in the Romney voters that if they don’t vote, no big deal.


8 posted on 10/13/2012 5:50:07 AM PDT by MomwithHope (Buy and read Ameritopia by Mark Levin!)
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To: Gaffer

Had to check to make sure you weren’t from Michigan. ;) What do you dislike about Ohio?


9 posted on 10/13/2012 9:24:16 AM PDT by madison10
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To: madison10

It seems to me that Ohio is, based on news reports, political reports, jobs reports, etc. on the receiving end of a lot of federal money that is going there only for the purpose of swaying their votes. Frankly, I’m tired of hearing about Ohio, and I’m tired of seeing Ohio transplants here in Georgia.

Don’t get me wrong, there are lots of good people in Ohio, but there aren’t enough....I’m beginning to feel like it’s becoming just another California, but without the good weather and the beaches.

[Besides, any city (of Ohio) that would elect Jerry Springer for Mayor has to be fricking nuts in my book. That’s not a good advertisement for a state any way you cut it.]


10 posted on 10/13/2012 9:30:59 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: kingattax

Florida poll Ping


11 posted on 10/13/2012 9:57:07 AM PDT by left that other site (Worry is the Darkroom that Develops Negatives.)
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To: MomwithHope

“Something smells this morning. The MSM touting Romney in the lead, it smells like a desperate attempt to get out the Obama vote by scaring them. And perhaps plant some complacency in the Romney voters that if they don’t vote, no big deal.”

People here can’t have it both ways, though.

When O was “ahead”, people were complaining that they were cooking the polls to possibly depress GOP turnout and encourage the Dems to vote. Now that the polls show Mitt ahead, some people are saying its another scheme to influence turnout in the same way. They can’t both be true.

With this type of attitude, no matter what the polls show, someone can always say the results are some type of manipulative scheme. It’s a non-falsifiable attitude.

My own view is that the earlier polls with big leads for O had bad internals and oversampled Dems. But there’s no real reason for the MSM to manufacture a Romney surge at this point. This kind of thing doesn’t benefit Obama at all, so there’s no reason for them to falsely claim it unless the numbers were much closer to legit.


12 posted on 10/13/2012 11:15:49 AM PDT by Kingosaurus
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To: hadaclueonce

I have always respected the Jewish religion, and have never sought to convert my Jewish friends, other than by practicing my Christian faith faithfully and answering their questions. After all, no matter what else, they ARE God’s Chosen People, and I have never seen anything biblical that cancels that promise. It is my personal belief that after death, Christ reveals Himself to practicing faithful Jews, and at that time they have the opportunity to accept Him as Lord and Savior. So, I agree with you, and I also don’t believe anyone would ban you for such a thought.


13 posted on 10/13/2012 11:16:19 AM PDT by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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To: Justaham
At one point, Mack and Nelson were tied for the Senate. Now, Mack is in freefall.

Romney needs to immediately expand his strategy to focus on rallying Senate candidates. Now is the time to roll out the coattails.

I was reviewing the last month's Rasmussen Senate polls, and it is a disaster. The entire GOP Senate campaign has totally collapsed.

I will be putting out a complete analysis later this weekend, but we're in worst-case scenario now and need an immediate turnaround strategy, or Romney will NOT have a united Congress to support him.

-PJ

14 posted on 10/13/2012 11:28:26 AM PDT by Political Junkie Too ( It doesn't I naturally when you're not natural born.)
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To: Justaham

My guess is that is outside the MoE.


15 posted on 10/13/2012 11:59:16 AM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: hadaclueonce

The “Jews” who hate the Right are hardly Jews at all.


16 posted on 10/13/2012 12:01:24 PM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: Gaffer

Springer was just another politician when he won the mayor’s job. He was not yet the Ringmaster of a Three Ring Circus of Freaks.


17 posted on 10/13/2012 12:03:19 PM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: Political Junkie Too

Romney is going to win in a landslide and will bring in many if not all of the candidates for Congress.

I am sure every poll of Senate races is oversampling D and women just as the presidential ones have.


18 posted on 10/13/2012 12:06:08 PM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: Kingosaurus

I agree; based on my experiences with other types of scientists, I don’t think many pollsters are intentionally tipping the scales. It is well known that the entire population of people who will answer a pollster’s phone call is NOT the same as the entire population of people who will vote on Election Day. So, they have to model things to correct for that. Nobody is going to use a model unless it makes sense to them. This is where bias can come in.

Now, hopefully they are also heavily relying on data. That data is flawed for the same reasons the raw data they are collecting now is flawed, which leads to some complicated situations.

It doesn’t make sense at this point to rig the polls to make Romney look stronger than he really is in order to depress turnout. For one, there is no evidence that it will do that — a significant number of voters have sheep-like tendencies and will support the eventual winner. You can see this in polls taken shortly after an election asking for whom they voted. The actual winner nearly always polls much higher than he actually performed on election day.

Plus, it is bad business for a pollster to start intentionally producing fake numbers close to the election if they ever want to get business next election.

Finally, you get Suffolk University polling pulling out of Florida, NC and VA claiming they are seeing the same thing. Along the same lines, most of the reporting I’m seeing is focusing on Ohio and the smaller swing states. From my perspective, it sure looks like everyone with private information thinks Romney is going to win Florida and North Carolina — the campaigns are still going strong because they are such big prizes neither can afford the risk of coasting — Romney is going to win Virginia, at least if he’s doing well enough to have a shot at winning the whole thing and the same for Colorado, making Ohio the key state that will probably decide the election.


19 posted on 10/13/2012 12:06:43 PM PDT by lgwdnbdgr
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To: Gaffer

you mean the majority of all non-Confederate states.


20 posted on 10/13/2012 4:33:40 PM PDT by BrianE ("Dead at 25 buried at 65 the average American" - Benjamin Franklin 1776)
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To: hadaclueonce

who and what is the Christian Right?


21 posted on 10/13/2012 4:35:51 PM PDT by BrianE ("Dead at 25 buried at 65 the average American" - Benjamin Franklin 1776)
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To: BrianE

One at a time. One at a time.


22 posted on 10/13/2012 4:53:07 PM PDT by Gaffer
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To: MuttTheHoople

lets not forget the voter fraud here in FL.

The media has to account for it;s voter fraud thus tint the polls.

McCain won our state on the night in 2008 and yet because of early voting and th elefts vote early vote often and with Crist in charge then they got this state.

I’ve seen not one yard sign in my area, my county st johns county, st augustine or in Flagler county and Duval county where Jacksonville is.


23 posted on 10/13/2012 6:04:28 PM PDT by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: Gaffer

LOL, that is what we say here about OH.

OH is the CA of the midwest,.

Why I do not know as I would have thought OH would be more conservative but I guess that OH has a few big cities and that is where the loons get their support.
CA I believe is very conservative on the east part of the state but it’s the big cities and the coast which have been infested by the locusts.


24 posted on 10/13/2012 6:08:38 PM PDT by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: Political Junkie Too
what is Mack showing against dimwit Nelson please?

I'm in north east FL where I;ve never seen a Nelson sign and where he will get hardly any votes but I;m sure the south east part of the state which is not the south nor hardly like FL will vote for him.

I also saw a poll showing big mouth lost her marbles Baghdad Bob Wassermann was in a close race and Col Allen west was pulling away so not sure what you're looking at.

I and many others here wish those 3 counties or at least Palm and Broward should just go on their merry way and leave our state and set up a new state.

Broward is the north east, full of ignorant liberal , ex union retirees and illegals, full of corruption and a waste and drain of our state.

25 posted on 10/13/2012 6:25:14 PM PDT by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: Justaham

Even if most polls had a 15 point lead for Romney in Florida, Colmes,Juan and Beckel would ridicule the results. And how many times has Juan Williams said on various Fox News shows that Obama has a 5/6 point lead in every swing state?


26 posted on 10/13/2012 7:59:30 PM PDT by Who_Ate_My_Dog
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To: manc
See my thoughts on the Senate races here.

-PJ

27 posted on 10/13/2012 9:06:01 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ( It doesn't I naturally when you're not natural born.)
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To: arrogantsob
See my thoughts on the Senate races here.

-PJ

28 posted on 10/13/2012 9:07:30 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ( It doesn't I naturally when you're not natural born.)
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To: manc
What is this bizarre equation of Ohio with California? Makes no sense at all. Ohio for one thing has a totally republican government. For another, it has a solvent government. Population is stable with slow net outmigration, but little in the way of incoming illegal alien concentrations. Nuts and fruits do not gather here from other states.

There is nothing to compare with SanFrancisco, SanDiego or LA. Our "big" city is now Columbus, less than a million people. Cleveland is now below 400,000. Akron, Cincinnati, and Toledo also have lost population steadily.

With the dispersion of the remaining population to smaller cities and towns the quality of life is improving for most of us pretty rapidly. There is no exodus of businesses since Kasich won the statehouse. Jobs are moving in, especially in healthcare.

If you want to gripe about Ohio for some obscure personal reason, fine, but California, it ain't.

29 posted on 10/13/2012 10:13:20 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: Justaham

I think this is the gradual shift we are going to see in Ohio and Vir. as well.


30 posted on 10/14/2012 12:02:44 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: hadaclueonce
Christians try to save all people.

I don't see how trying to save Jews helps the Democrats.

31 posted on 10/14/2012 12:04:25 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Kingosaurus

Agreed. The debates sealed the deal with many people, they just wanted to be sure Romney could do the job.


32 posted on 10/14/2012 12:06:02 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: arrogantsob
I believe is what is being underestimated is the ability of the GOP to get out their vote.

That is what made the difference in the WI recall election.

33 posted on 10/14/2012 12:08:27 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: manc

I think many are not going to get Romney signs out of caution from reaction by pro-Obama voters.


34 posted on 10/14/2012 12:10:46 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: BrianE

“who is the Christian Right?”

This is the guy I was referring to it is Pat Robertson.

In my humble opinion made more people afraid of the Republican Party than anyone.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pat_Robertson


35 posted on 10/14/2012 4:00:52 AM PDT by hadaclueonce (you are paying 12% more for fuel because of Ethanol. Smile big Corn Lobby,)
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To: fortheDeclaration

See post 35


36 posted on 10/14/2012 5:01:11 AM PDT by hadaclueonce (you are paying 12% more for fuel because of Ethanol. Smile big Corn Lobby,)
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To: hadaclueonce

oh ok though i never understood the term or why people use it, i simply label him as just another individual despite his beliefs, Thanks.


37 posted on 10/14/2012 9:22:00 AM PDT by BrianE ("Dead at 25 buried at 65 the average American" - Benjamin Franklin 1776)
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To: Political Junkie Too

Until the polls poll the correct ratio of D/R/I I don’t pay them much attention. It is very unlikely that many, if any, of those you use do this. Even Rasmussen does not.

In addition, 91% refuse to tell them anything hence a huge % of conservatives are never even considered. So none of this changes my mind that there is going to be a huge RR blowout.


38 posted on 10/14/2012 1:51:37 PM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: fortheDeclaration

That and people’s determination to vote will make the difference.


39 posted on 10/14/2012 7:44:10 PM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: arrogantsob

Yes indeed!


40 posted on 10/14/2012 11:34:53 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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