Posted on 10/13/2012 12:27:52 AM PDT by Justaham
Mitt Romney’s 7-point lead in the TBT/Herald/Mason-Dixon poll is the latest sign of a Florida surge:
The survey conducted this week found 51 percent of likely Florida voters supporting Romney, 44 percent backing Obama and 4 percent undecided. That’s a major shift from a month ago when the same poll showed Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent — and a direct result of what Obama himself called a “bad night” at the first debate.
The debate prompted 5 percent of previously undecided voters and 2 percent of Obama backers to move to Romney. Another 2 percent of Obama supporters said they are now undecided because of the debate.
(Excerpt) Read more at commentarymagazine.com ...
Good deal! I wonder where he’s at in Ohio?
If they couldn’t turn the seniors against Romney/Ryan, they’re in serious trouble.
Things are solidifying like I thought they would. I couldn’t believe Obama wouldn’t get trounced, what with his lousy record.
OH is the place to be, apparently. It’s all about the big
O-HI-O
Personally, I never thought Romney was behind. That was simply the narrative the MSM and $150 million in campaign advertising did. I think Romney was ALWAYS 7 points ahead in Virginia and Florida.
Maybe the Jewish vote in Florida will finally have grown tired of 0bama.
This is going to get me flamed and probably be banned, but the Christian Right in the the Republican Party need to stop trying the save all the Jews souls by wanting to convert them.
In my opinion that has been the tool that the Dem’s have used to lock up their votes.
Ohio should be broken up and sold off.
Something smells this morning. The MSM touting Romney in the lead, it smells like a desperate attempt to get out the Obama vote by scaring them. And perhaps plant some complacency in the Romney voters that if they don’t vote, no big deal.
Had to check to make sure you weren’t from Michigan. ;) What do you dislike about Ohio?
It seems to me that Ohio is, based on news reports, political reports, jobs reports, etc. on the receiving end of a lot of federal money that is going there only for the purpose of swaying their votes. Frankly, I’m tired of hearing about Ohio, and I’m tired of seeing Ohio transplants here in Georgia.
Don’t get me wrong, there are lots of good people in Ohio, but there aren’t enough....I’m beginning to feel like it’s becoming just another California, but without the good weather and the beaches.
[Besides, any city (of Ohio) that would elect Jerry Springer for Mayor has to be fricking nuts in my book. That’s not a good advertisement for a state any way you cut it.]
Florida poll Ping
“Something smells this morning. The MSM touting Romney in the lead, it smells like a desperate attempt to get out the Obama vote by scaring them. And perhaps plant some complacency in the Romney voters that if they don’t vote, no big deal.”
People here can’t have it both ways, though.
When O was “ahead”, people were complaining that they were cooking the polls to possibly depress GOP turnout and encourage the Dems to vote. Now that the polls show Mitt ahead, some people are saying its another scheme to influence turnout in the same way. They can’t both be true.
With this type of attitude, no matter what the polls show, someone can always say the results are some type of manipulative scheme. It’s a non-falsifiable attitude.
My own view is that the earlier polls with big leads for O had bad internals and oversampled Dems. But there’s no real reason for the MSM to manufacture a Romney surge at this point. This kind of thing doesn’t benefit Obama at all, so there’s no reason for them to falsely claim it unless the numbers were much closer to legit.
I have always respected the Jewish religion, and have never sought to convert my Jewish friends, other than by practicing my Christian faith faithfully and answering their questions. After all, no matter what else, they ARE God’s Chosen People, and I have never seen anything biblical that cancels that promise. It is my personal belief that after death, Christ reveals Himself to practicing faithful Jews, and at that time they have the opportunity to accept Him as Lord and Savior. So, I agree with you, and I also don’t believe anyone would ban you for such a thought.
Romney needs to immediately expand his strategy to focus on rallying Senate candidates. Now is the time to roll out the coattails.
I was reviewing the last month's Rasmussen Senate polls, and it is a disaster. The entire GOP Senate campaign has totally collapsed.
I will be putting out a complete analysis later this weekend, but we're in worst-case scenario now and need an immediate turnaround strategy, or Romney will NOT have a united Congress to support him.
-PJ
My guess is that is outside the MoE.
The “Jews” who hate the Right are hardly Jews at all.
Springer was just another politician when he won the mayor’s job. He was not yet the Ringmaster of a Three Ring Circus of Freaks.
Romney is going to win in a landslide and will bring in many if not all of the candidates for Congress.
I am sure every poll of Senate races is oversampling D and women just as the presidential ones have.
I agree; based on my experiences with other types of scientists, I don’t think many pollsters are intentionally tipping the scales. It is well known that the entire population of people who will answer a pollster’s phone call is NOT the same as the entire population of people who will vote on Election Day. So, they have to model things to correct for that. Nobody is going to use a model unless it makes sense to them. This is where bias can come in.
Now, hopefully they are also heavily relying on data. That data is flawed for the same reasons the raw data they are collecting now is flawed, which leads to some complicated situations.
It doesn’t make sense at this point to rig the polls to make Romney look stronger than he really is in order to depress turnout. For one, there is no evidence that it will do that — a significant number of voters have sheep-like tendencies and will support the eventual winner. You can see this in polls taken shortly after an election asking for whom they voted. The actual winner nearly always polls much higher than he actually performed on election day.
Plus, it is bad business for a pollster to start intentionally producing fake numbers close to the election if they ever want to get business next election.
Finally, you get Suffolk University polling pulling out of Florida, NC and VA claiming they are seeing the same thing. Along the same lines, most of the reporting I’m seeing is focusing on Ohio and the smaller swing states. From my perspective, it sure looks like everyone with private information thinks Romney is going to win Florida and North Carolina — the campaigns are still going strong because they are such big prizes neither can afford the risk of coasting — Romney is going to win Virginia, at least if he’s doing well enough to have a shot at winning the whole thing and the same for Colorado, making Ohio the key state that will probably decide the election.
you mean the majority of all non-Confederate states.
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