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Obama, Heller lead in Nevada [Enter Gary Johnson 48/47]
PPP ^ | October 10, 2012 | PPP

Posted on 10/13/2012 4:26:47 AM PDT by GonzoII

October 10, 2012

Obama, Heller lead in Nevada

PPP's newest Nevada poll finds Barack Obama's lead in the state falling to 4 points at 51-47. He had led by a 52-43 margin in the middle of last month. That five point decline for Obama is consistent with what we've been seeing in most of our national and state level polling since last week's debate.

Romney's seen a big improvement in his favorability rating. The last time we polled on that in August he was at 46/49 in Nevada and now he's improved a net 7 points to 50/46. The good news for Obama is that his own approval, at 49/48, is slightly better than it was in August as well when he was at 48/49. Romney's climb is more about his own image improving than a decline for Obama.

Romney's big gain over the last month has been with white voters, who he's going from leading 52-45 with to 55-42. He's made gains across the party spectrum, notably increasing his crossover support with Democrats from 10% to 16% and cutting Obama's lead with independents from 15 points down to 7 points.

The main groups fueling Obama's continued lead are Hispanics, who give him a 67-32 advantage, and young voters who favor him 67-33.

When Gary Johnson's included he gets 3% and actually takes mostly from Obama, pulling his lead over Romney down to 48/47. That could be something worth keeping an eye on.

In the Senate race Dean Heller holds a small lead over Shelley Berkley with 47% to her 44%. Independent American Party candidate David Lory VanderBeek gets 4%. Nevadans give Heller narrowly positive approval numbers, with 44% of voters happy with the job he's doing to 42% who disapprove. Berkley's suffering from high negatives with just 40% of voters rating her favorably to 51% who have an unfavorable opinion. Heller's winning independents 47-37 and taking 85% of the Republican vote to Berkley's 76% of Democrats.



TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Nevada
KEYWORDS: romney2012
"When Gary Johnson's included he gets 3% and actually takes mostly from Obama, pulling his lead over Romney down to 48/47. That could be something worth keeping an eye on."
1 posted on 10/13/2012 4:26:53 AM PDT by GonzoII
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To: GonzoII

PPP is a bullcrap poll, they have no credibility.


2 posted on 10/13/2012 5:14:06 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: GonzoII
The Johnson part shows you how flawed the PPP analysis is. The only possible answer to his 3% is that the Democrats who don't want to vote for Obama say "Johnson" even though they don't have any idea who he is. They only care that he is not Obama. If this is the case Johnson will help elsewhere.
3 posted on 10/13/2012 5:15:52 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: GonzoII

Gary Johnson is going to capture most of his votes from people who always abhor voting for the 2 major parties or potheads. The other messageboards I frequent are full of people who are voting Johnson and voted Nader or Peroutka in the recent past.


4 posted on 10/13/2012 5:25:50 AM PDT by Jake8898
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To: Jake8898

which will be around 2.0%. In 2008, 2.2% voted for “other”


5 posted on 10/13/2012 5:44:11 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ...

In 2008, 0bama won Nevada in two counties, Clark (by 19%) and Washoe (by 12.5%) which is a combined 18% of Obama’s gross margin. McCain won the rest of Nevada by 20%. If Romney keeps 0bama below 16% in those two counties assuming he does not underperform McCain in the rest of State, Romney will win Nevada.


6 posted on 10/13/2012 5:46:23 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: jmaroneps37

Well, after Biden was such a d!ck the other night, maybe they think they’re voting for THAT Johnson!


7 posted on 10/13/2012 5:56:53 AM PDT by Alas Babylon!
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To: GonzoII

These days lots of liberals like the libertarian candidates. Much of it due to drug legalization plus saying you are a libertarian sounds more cool

So I can see Gary Johnson helping us by stealing from JugEars


8 posted on 10/13/2012 5:57:21 AM PDT by dennisw (Government be yo mamma - Re-elect Barack Obama)
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To: Perdogg

Reno, Nevada. October 8, 2012. Washoe County registered more than 3,500 voters in the past week for the November 6th election, and the County surpassed the previous record of 231,400 for the General Election in 2008 with a current 234,113 registered voters.

Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats 90,331 to 87,960, with 55,822 nonpartisan and minor party voters now registered in the County.

http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/repository/print_pr.php?article=10446


9 posted on 10/13/2012 6:38:35 AM PDT by sf4dubya (I rebelled against my parents by becoming a conservative. REJECT THEN STOP SOCIALISM THIS NOV!)
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To: GonzoII

If Shelly Berkley cared about Pro-Life Issues, it would say so on her “Issues” page.

I’m only contributing to Pro-Life Senate candidates, in close races, around the nation.

Gary who?


10 posted on 10/13/2012 6:43:28 AM PDT by G Larry (Which of Obama's policies do you think I'd support if he were white?)
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To: sf4dubya

If you apply the Suffolk University/KSNV poll (oversampled RV poll) to the 2008 results 0bama leads in Nevada by 0.1%.


11 posted on 10/13/2012 6:44:24 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Perdogg

I trust Rasmussen more. This PPP poll is garbage meant to motivate money to Berkley.

The facts:

+100k AVs Dem over GOP in Clark County
Washoe is almost 50/50 split

That means every single GOP voter in the state has to vote for Romney in order to make up the SEIU deficit in Clark, plus we need a good chunk of Dems to stay home or switch to Romney.

I am in Nevada and I plus many others are working our asses off to redeem this state’s reputation. I want to bang my head on my desk every time I get off the phone with a stubborn “punish the GOP” Paulbot.


12 posted on 10/13/2012 6:56:10 AM PDT by sf4dubya (I rebelled against my parents by becoming a conservative. REJECT THEN STOP SOCIALISM THIS NOV!)
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To: GonzoII

PPP the most discredited push poll Operatopn outside of Zogby - landslide operation !


13 posted on 10/13/2012 7:10:21 AM PDT by ncalburt (Axelrod Psych OPS has gone to 24/7 non stop - "The election is over " status until Nov)
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