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Beyond the Bradley Effect: What’s Really Happening in Election 2012
PJ Media ^ | 10-13-2012 | Roger L. Simon - Commentary

Posted on 10/13/2012 10:41:46 AM PDT by smoothsailing

October 13, 2012

Beyond the Bradley Effect: What’s Really Happening in Election 2012

Roger L. Simon

In the aftermath of the cringe-worthy debate performance by Vice President Joe Biden — dubbed Dr. Strangelaugh by James Taranto — it’s easy to be bewildered by where this bizarre election is headed.

And Biden’s behavior was not the first instance of “inappropriate affect” by one of the Democratic team. That clinical term for “emotional tone or outward emotional reaction out of harmony with the idea, object, or thought accompanying it” applies to the president’s curiously disconnected presentation in the first debate as well.

What’s going on with these guys? We can theorize forever about the etiology of this behavior (anger, narcissism, desperation, even self-sabotage) in either or both cases, but it’s finally more pertinent to speculate on what the result will be.

As someone who spent over three decades on the left as a liberal-progressive-whatever, I believe I have some sense of how they think and feel. And I have a strong suspicion that at this moment they are not feeling good, no matter what their protestations.

I further suspect some, it’s hard to say how many, are even beginning to question long-held views. How this will translate at the voting booth, it is again difficult to say. Political beliefs — most often inherited or adopted early in life — are notoriously difficult to change just in and of themselves. Add to that the perils of conflict and confrontation with family, friends, employers, and co-workers, not to mention the potential for disintegration of self-image, and you have a perfect prescription for inertia.

And yet we are a moment when more people than ever in recent memory are being forced to think. The economy, nearly everyone knows, is barreling toward the proverbial cliff and on top of that we now have the Benghazi terror killings replete with a metastasizing cover-up, rendering absurd the assertion that al-Qaeda (or its myriad clones) is dead or dying. The White House (Obama/Biden) and the State Department (Hillary/Billary) are already choosing up sides in an unseemly (actually horrifying if you think about its implications) game of liar’s poker.

Foreign policy/domestic policy — what’s a poor liberal to do? Well, there are always the social issues to drum up support, but it’s getting a little late in the game.

So back to those people who might be questioning their beliefs. What are they actually going to do in the voting booth? Human cowardice and habit being what they are, most will undoubtedly revert to type. But how many will quietly vote for Romney/Ryan?

A lot of talk has been bandied about over the so-called Bradley Effect, the theory that a number of California voters said they were going to vote for Tom Bradley — the longtime Los Angeles mayor — for governor of that state in a 1982 election because he was African-American, but really voted for his opponent who won.

This theory has been debunked and, frankly, I have no idea of its veracity. More importantly, however, I believe it is passé. Fewer than ever are interested in the color of Obama’s skin (well, maybe Al Sharpton and his claque) or — for that matter — in Mitt Romney’s religion. We have far, far more pressing issues in front of us at this moment.

For that reason, I think the number who vote for Romney/Ryan and then tell no one (at least in the short run) will be significant, so significant that this election may explode and be closer to a blowout than anyone, save a few, had expected.

We have, in essence, gone beyond the Bradley Effect, if that ever existed, to a Faux Ideology Effect (someone can think of a better term). Liberals can pretend to be liberals all they wish to friends, family, employers, and co-workers, but more and more of them will privately vote conservative. The country and the world hang in the balance. Time has long run out on liberal posturing. Thank Joe Biden for reminding us of that.


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS:

Dr. Strangelaff

1 posted on 10/13/2012 10:41:53 AM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: smoothsailing

That GIF is freaking me out. The boy definitely isn’t right in the head.


2 posted on 10/13/2012 10:45:59 AM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Sorry Algore. It was attitude, NOT altitude.)
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To: smoothsailing

oooh, its disturbing.

He reminds me of that computer animated head, Max Headrom? back in the 80s


3 posted on 10/13/2012 10:47:59 AM PDT by Texas4ever
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To: smoothsailing

Although I didn’t realize it at the time the more I think about this the more I believe that Ryan was really smart not to get in Biden’s way while he was making a total ass of himself and the Obama administration.


4 posted on 10/13/2012 10:48:36 AM PDT by Aria ( 2008 wasn't an election - it was a coup d'etat.)
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To: Aria
Although I didn’t realize it at the time the more I think about this the more I believe that Ryan was really smart not to get in Biden’s way while he was making a total ass of himself and the Obama administration.

It was like watching a drunk trying to impress the ladies in the bar with his superior knowledge of anything and everything.

5 posted on 10/13/2012 10:56:07 AM PDT by N. Theknow (Kennedys=Can't drive, can't ski, can't fly, can't skipper a boat, but they know what's best for you.)
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To: smoothsailing
Biden suffered a brain aneurysm in 1988. Long-term effects now showing up?
6 posted on 10/13/2012 10:56:07 AM PDT by JPG (Make it happen)
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To: JPG
Biden suffered a brain aneurysm in 1988. Long-term effects now showing up?

That explains it then.

They must have removed it.

The brain that is, not the aneurysm.

7 posted on 10/13/2012 10:58:30 AM PDT by N. Theknow (Kennedys=Can't drive, can't ski, can't fly, can't skipper a boat, but they know what's best for you.)
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To: FlingWingFlyer

There is something very wrong with Biden.


8 posted on 10/13/2012 11:01:16 AM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: Texas4ever

9 posted on 10/13/2012 11:08:02 AM PDT by Jeff Chandler (Romney vs Obama, Round One: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oyNxHOZiQPA)
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To: Aria

My husband, brother-in -law and I were watching. They were frantically raging at the TV for Ryan to speak up and get aggressive. The more Biden interrupted, talked and acted out, the more it became obvious to me that Ryan knew this was coming, anticipated it, and hoped for it. He was giving Biden and Martha plenty of rope, by remaining calm, focused and informative. To me, Ryan’s face was like Christmas morning, knowing that the aggressive “mocking Joe” was the one who showed up, as they had prepared for.


10 posted on 10/13/2012 11:10:09 AM PDT by Toespi
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To: smoothsailing

The problem with the author’s theory is that it assumes that liberals can think and reason rationally.

It’s been some decades since anyone has offered any evidence to support that assertion.


11 posted on 10/13/2012 11:13:36 AM PDT by sitetest (If Roe is not overturned, no unborn child will ever be protected in law.)
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To: Toespi

Agree....he knew he would be out-numbered AND that Biden would be over the top. And that behavior was even more exaggerated by Ryan’s very calm demeanor. ROVE YOU MAGNIFICENT B*STARD !


12 posted on 10/13/2012 11:20:35 AM PDT by Blue Turtle
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To: Jeff Chandler

The closest thing I recall seeing to Biden’s actions Thursday I think—was on the old movie “The candidate” a political movie—when Robert Redford acted somewhat like this in a debate with his opponent in the senate campaign he was in . He smirked and laughed on stage a lot too.

Redford was NOT even really even TRYING to win the election in that 1972 movie—he was a “token” for some reason or another-—probably to get “exposure”.


13 posted on 10/13/2012 11:26:43 AM PDT by Rca2000 ( NEVER underestimate the power of "one little election", in WI.....)
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To: smoothsailing

Hey Joe — they have places where they put people who laugh when nothing’s funny.


14 posted on 10/13/2012 11:28:36 AM PDT by Maceman
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To: sitetest

LOL, point well taken!


15 posted on 10/13/2012 11:37:32 AM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: N. Theknow

He reminded me of a lounge lizard that you can’t wait to get rid of. I can’t imagine any woman would be impressed - makes my skin crawl.


16 posted on 10/13/2012 11:54:12 AM PDT by Aria ( 2008 wasn't an election - it was a coup d'etat.)
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To: Maceman

Hey Joe — they have places where they put people who laugh when nothing’s funny.

Yeah, it’s called a Bill Maher audience.


17 posted on 10/13/2012 12:00:54 PM PDT by Thickman (Obama - President Ubiquitous (a.k.a. P.U.))
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To: sitetest
The problem with the author’s theory is that it assumes that liberals can think and reason rationally.

Not the hard core ideologists - they are lost souls. But there are plenty of people "in the middle" who don't really give much thought to these things....they vote Democrat, well....because they always did.

A guy on Rush put it very well: R/R are like the serious, be-speckled doctor who sits you down and soberly lays it on the line, "You can't keep living this way - it's gonna kill you." and shows you the test results and outlines a plan to help you out.

Obama and Biden are like the obnoxious and beer-bellied uncle who scoffs at the doctor's pronouncement and tells you to keep on doing just what you're doing.

I think a fair number of people are seeing the "terrible test results" and are considering taking them seriously.

18 posted on 10/13/2012 12:20:02 PM PDT by Mygirlsmom (Obama will fight for Big Bird with one hand and flip the bird to America with the other.)
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To: sitetest
The problem with the author’s theory is that it assumes that liberals can think and reason rationally.

Liberalism is often simply a pose, not an ideology. People adopt it to gain acceptance, not because they believe it. It's wonderful! marvelous! to vote for the colored guy, and share the experience with your friends. But this stuff is getting old, and frankly, the dude is seriously scary. It's like choosing a doctor for your own child when he is seriously ill, posturing doesn't cut it, you want the guy who can do the job.

19 posted on 10/13/2012 12:23:11 PM PDT by Lonesome in Massachussets ( Message to President Obama: Mene, mene, tekel, upharsin)
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To: smoothsailing
And Biden’s behavior was not the first instance of “inappropriate affect” by one of the Democratic team

Libtards are motivated primarily by their emotions rather than reason. This debate was a perfect example of the behavior of a man of reason (Ryan) vs and emotionalist (Biden).

20 posted on 10/13/2012 12:46:15 PM PDT by mjp ((pro-{God, reality, reason, egoism, individualism, natural rights, limited government, capitalism}))
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To: Mygirlsmom
Dear Mygirlsmom,

I'm hopeful that Gov. Romney will win, but I don't think it will be by much. Even 55% would be miraculous.

That means nearly half the people who vote will be voting for an atrocity. That suggests to me that over two-fifths of the population is devoid of higher intelligence. Entirely, completely, utterly devoid. IQ = 40.

And the folks in the middle 10%, that it took this entire election season for them to figure it out, that suggests to me an IQ <= 70. Over half the population is borderline retarded, or much, much worse.


sitetest

21 posted on 10/13/2012 12:53:36 PM PDT by sitetest (If Roe is not overturned, no unborn child will ever be protected in law.)
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To: N. Theknow
"It was like watching a drunk trying to impress the ladies in the bar with his superior knowledge of anything and everything."


22 posted on 10/13/2012 1:00:09 PM PDT by Emperor Palpatine ("On the ascent of Olympus, what's a botched bar or two?" -Artur Schnabel)
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To: smoothsailing
We have, in essence, gone beyond the Bradley Effect, if that ever existed, to a Faux Ideology Effect (someone can think of a better term). Liberals can pretend to be liberals all they wish to friends, family, employers, and co-workers, but more and more of them will privately vote conservative. The country and the world hang in the balance. Time has long run out on liberal posturing. Thank Joe Biden for reminding us of that.

It's looking more and more like the Giuiani/Dinkins effect. David Dinkins, a communist black much like the Illegal, ran NYC so far into the ground in the 1970's that even liberal New Yorkers held their noses and secretly voted for Rudy, giving him a huge win. That must may be what will happen this time.

23 posted on 10/13/2012 1:21:59 PM PDT by libstripper
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To: libstripper

I think that’s what the writer is getting at.

Maybe the Public/Private Effect is another way of saying it.

What a person will say or do in public is not what they will actually do in private.

If true, even partially, we may witness something approaching a landslide on Nov. 6th! :)


24 posted on 10/13/2012 1:58:42 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: FlingWingFlyer
Obama would be another 3 or 4 points if it were not for the “I don't want to say I'm not voting for the A) African American B) Brother C) Colored guy depending on whether the respondent is a disaffected White liberal; an African American or an old White Democrat.
25 posted on 10/13/2012 2:01:43 PM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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