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Poll: Romney Rise in Fla. Helps Mack Close the Gap
National Journal ^ | October 13, 2012

Posted on 10/13/2012 12:49:28 PM PDT by SMGFan

For the past six weeks, the presidential race in Florida has been neck-and-neck, and Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson has led Republican Rep. Connie Mack by a comfortable margin in that state's Senate race. But a new Mason-Dixon poll conducted this week in the wake of Mitt Romney's strong debate performance shows the Republican presidential nominee opening up a 7-point lead in the Sunshine State, and his party's Senate nominee now trails within the margin of error.

The poll, conducted Oct. 8-10 for the Miami Herald, Tampa Bay Times, Spanish-language El Nuevo Herald and two in-state cable news TV stations, shows Nelson with a slight lead over Mack, 47 percent to 42 percent. Four percent of likely voters prefer another candidate, while 7 percent are undecided. The poll surveyed 800 likely voters, for a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.5 percentage points.

That represents a slight tightening in the race from mid-September, when Nelson led Mack by 8 percentage points, 48 percent to 40 percent.

The Mason-Dixon poll is not the only word on the Senate race since the first presidential debate, however. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll released earlier this week showed Obama maintaining a scant, 1-point lead on Romney, and Nelson with a double-digit advantage over Mack.

Mack has said that if Romney carries Florida, the party's standard-bearer would drag him over the finish line and into Nelson's Senate seat. But this week's polls suggest Romney needs to run up the score and win the state in convincing fashion in order for his coattails to carry Mack with him.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls
Let there be Senate coattails like Reagan's in 1980!
1 posted on 10/13/2012 12:49:33 PM PDT by SMGFan
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To: SMGFan
If Romney finishes strong, which he appears able to do, then he will have long coattails. He could well bring in a senate majority, although I doubt a 60 vote majority. Still. far better than Hairy Reid screwing up the mess even further.
2 posted on 10/13/2012 12:53:45 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: SMGFan

Is there anyone from Florida who can explain why Connie Mack is not doing better in Florida? The idea that he needs to be dragged across the finish line by Romney/Ryan’s coattails dose not inspire confidence in his candidacy, IMHO.


3 posted on 10/13/2012 1:00:25 PM PDT by Gumdrop
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To: hinckley buzzard

Who knows, Mitt Romney might even have enough pull to carry Todd Akin over the line in Missouri, and we might, MIGHT, actually be able to ditch Claire McCaskill.

Harry Reid may have strong, even almost impregnable, defense against being removed from office, but that did not save Robert Toricelli, former Senator of New Jersey. If there is good and sufficient reason, ANYONE may be given the boot. And surely there is plenty to go after Dingy Harry, just nobody has the will to pull the trigger of serious investigation of his money laundering activities.

And walk up later to put “paid” on his record.


4 posted on 10/13/2012 1:06:35 PM PDT by alloysteel ("You have attributed conditions to villainy that simply result from stupidity".)
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To: Gumdrop

There has been sharp, really HARSH negative advertising by Bill Nelson and those working on his behalf, directed against Connie Mack IV, attributing a poor regard for personal finances, an arrest record for disorderly conduct and DUI, and various misdemeanors and confrontations with the law by his rival. Not known if these allegations have any basis in fact, but they sure get repeated a lot. The Mack family has a philosophy of “Never complain, never explain.”

Bill Nelson is in a corner, supporting unpopular political decisions and legislation, and he is desperately trying to direct attention elsewhere.


5 posted on 10/13/2012 1:14:15 PM PDT by alloysteel ("You have attributed conditions to villainy that simply result from stupidity".)
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To: alloysteel
There has been sharp, really HARSH negative advertising by Bill Nelson and those working on his behalf, directed against Connie Mack IV, attributing a poor regard for personal finances, an arrest record for disorderly conduct and DUI, and various misdemeanors and confrontations with the law by his rival. Not known if these allegations have any basis in fact, but they sure get repeated a lot. The Mack family has a philosophy of “Never complain, never explain.”

How did a lousy campaigner with a long history of personal indiscretions end up being FL's GOP candidate for the Senate?

6 posted on 10/13/2012 1:24:18 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: Zhang Fei
How did a lousy campaigner with a long history of personal indiscretions end up being FL's GOP candidate for the Senate?

The Florida GOP has a long record of selecting the candidate, by primary election, not necessarily for their ability to WIN an election, so much as for their record of not annoying the money boys that finance such elections. Thus, either the nominee for a particular office self-finances his campaign, or smooches enough butts to attract sufficient support to gain at least a plurality.

As you might imagine, some ringers have gotten through the process (Charlie Crist comes to mind), and some pretty solid contenders have been turned out cold (Bill McCullom). The RPOF will NOT support anyone of too rigorously conservative nature (note their tepid support of Allen West), and they often do not reward their most industrious workers with higher office (Katherine Harris, Florida's Secretary of State during the 2000 vote recount debacle).

The state party does not have much rigorous internal discipline, unlike the Florida Democrats, who manage to keep putting DWS back in office.

7 posted on 10/13/2012 1:40:04 PM PDT by alloysteel ("You have attributed conditions to villainy that simply result from stupidity".)
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To: alloysteel
Excellent analysis. Spot on. Of late, Mack's ads have become sharper, more negative..taking aim at Nelson's votes. Early on, they were softer, nicer. I think Mack held his powder for the last few weeks.

FYI, about a month ago, the TampaBayTimes ( left-wing rag) said that for Nelson to win, he would have to run about 3-4 points BETTER than Obama in the state.

IF Mitt does really well, then I think we can recall the three Supreme Court justices..Now that would be a trifecta.

8 posted on 10/13/2012 2:13:02 PM PDT by ken5050 (Barack Obama: An empty suit sitting in an empty chair...)
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To: SMGFan
Let there be Senate coattails like Reagan's in 1980!

Amen, and Amen!

9 posted on 10/13/2012 5:17:12 PM PDT by SuziQ
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