Posted on 10/13/2012 2:22:44 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Could Mitt Romney be riding a preference cascade in Florida that includes Hispanic voters? A new survey shows Barack Obama’s support rapidly eroding in a key Democratic constituency --- and this isn't a Republican internal poll, either:
An exclusive Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9 statewide poll shows many Hispanic voters dropping their support for Obama.
Last month, 52 percent of Hispanic voters polled said they would vote for the president. That has now dropped to 44 percent.
Romney picked up some ground among Hispanics, from 43 percent to 46 percent. And the number of undecided Hispanic voters has doubled from 5 to 10 percent.
Here's the graphic from the TB Times, which shows the dramatic shift:
A caveat is in order. The report doesn't include the poll data, so we can't see the modeling, and it also doesn't include the top-line number --- which I assume the TB Times wants to hold for tomorrow. However, the poll comes from the respected Mason-Dixon polling firm, which means that this is no GOP-consultancy push poll, and has to be taken with some seriousness.
That makes this very bad news for Obama. It’s possible for Mitt Romney to win Florida without winning Hispanics, but it’s got to be nearly impossible for a Democrat to do it. And a nine-point drop in one poll series is a very significant change, especially in a single month. With this kind of movement in this demographic, I’m assuming that Mason-Dixon will be reporting something pretty positive for Mitt Romney, who has had leads in the latest Florida polling this month.
And that prompts another question — if indeed Hispanics are moving away from Obama in Florida, what are they doing in other states?
In 2008, Hispanics went for 0bama in Nevada 76-22
Latest Polls for Nevada, I cannot get any internals for Dane and Associates.
Hispanics only
Suffolk/KSNV (RV)
66% Obama
30% Romney
Survey USA
54% Obama
41% Romney
Most mexicans i know hate black dudes more than white dudes
The Cuban community, mainly in Miami, aren’t voting Obama.
Every Hispanic I knew that is not an illegal and actually works for a living will not vote Obama. The illegals may well be another story. The Mexicans who become Americans have a pretty good work ethic for the most part and aren’t so supportive of their illegal brethren. One of my employees down there was insulted if someone called him a Mexican-American. He would tell them politely, “I am only an American now.” He was proud of that accomplishment as were others like him.
Once again, the modeling of the poll would be a large issue. If you poll illegals who get to stay because of Obama’s executive order, I would imagine there would be 100% support for Obama. Thing to remember is that without Democratic party support and education, they won’t bother to go vote. Nobody told them they could, until the Dems show up and say you can because Obama let you stay, isn’t he so great!!
I don’t trust any of these recent polls, as they do not take into consideration the hundreds of thousands of illegal DREAMers who will somehow find a way to vote.
Warning to GOP: do not get too overly excited about these recent polls. You need to fight like you are always 5pts down.
I haven't known a lot of Mexicans, (as opposed to Hispanics), but the ones I have known are gracious, generous and kind hearted people who don't much "hate" or even much resent anyone.
“Most mexicans i know hate black dudes more than white dudes”
I can confirm that. Have friends who won business in the Fabric district and the mexicans just have a low opinion of blacks, especially as it is within range of Skid Row. It’s hard to respect a certain race when they’re all/mostly homeless while the mexicans whether they are illegal or not, simply work and shut up.
That maybe true but my freeper handle should be “Overcrowded in So California”
All it takes to turn middle-school Hispanics off on Obama is to tell them that the Obama administration forced Americans to sell guns to Mexican drug cartels - WITHOUT any tracking devices on them - which means the guns could only be tracked AFTER they had killed innocent Mexicans.
To get them to understand how Obama can get away with this kind of crap, it doesn’t hurt to tell them that Univision had a report on this - and within days they forgot all about telling the world that innocent Mexicans had been killed... because Obama had offered an important UN position to the wife of Univision’s chairman...
Obama’s got no problem with the drug cartels, because he thinks (and operates) just like they do. And innocent people are the victims - both American and Mexican.
One of my sons’ Hispanic friends is 18 and says he will vote for Obama because even though Romney would be better on the economy, he thinks Obama is so great on foreign policy. I think my boys will ask him if it’s good foreign policy to secretly arm the enemies of Mexico (the drug cartels). And they want to give him a link to the speech by Lara Logan, showing what a dangerous disaster Obama’s foreign policy has been, to energize and embolden belligerent Islamist terrorists all over the world.
The new information about the protocols followed when an embassy is attacked would also be good for this guy to know about - how the intelligence and military leadership watched live video of the attack and heard the cries for help for 6 hours and couldn’t do anything to help because Obama wouldn’t give orders to help. This administration not only refused to give additional security to this ambassador when he repeatedly told them how urgent it was - they also said what security he had couldn’t use bullets, AND they watched the attack happen live and wouldn’t lift a finger to help.
I think my sons will ask this young man who needs enemies, with a “defender” like that.
Venezuelans and Colombians are also mostly against Obama.
Thanks SeekAndFind.
Cubans and Puerto Ricans are of course the two major Hispanic groups in Florida. If it were up to older Cubans from Miami, Romney would be President, while young Puerto Ricans from Orlando tend to be liberal and to vote Democratic.
Yet there are immigrants from over a dozen other Latin American countries to varying degrees, with each community subject to political currents that are hard for outsiders to recognize and understand let alone measure through polling.
With those caveats, Romney could be leading among Hispanics in Florida because, in the debate, he alone showed the confidence and strength that Hispanics especially value in political leaders. Obama's weaknesses on defense and foreign policy issues are also negatives for him, as are unemployment, Florida's continuing high rate of foreclosures, and the depressed level of construction activity, which was formerly a major outlet for Hispanic entrepreneurship.
Moreover, even Puerto Ricans in Florida may now be receptive to a conservative message. Notably, in 2008, the island elected Luis Fortuno, a reformist GOP conservative as Governor. Fortuno -- who by rights ought to be nationally known -- turned around the Puerto Rican economy by cutting taxes and spending and attacking crime and corruption.
Perhaps 2012 will mark the emergence of a conservative trend among Puerto Ricans living in Florida. If so, it will help elect Romney and may reshape state politics by further consolidating GOP control of the state government.
I wonder if any of them remember Trayvon and the white hispanic.
The Hispanic vote splits vary quite a bit from state to state. GOP does very well in Florida with Hispanics, and horribly in California. New Mexico, despite having a majority Hispanic population, sometimes votes GOP (witness Tea Party Governor Susana Martinez and former Senators Gary Johnson and Pete Domenici
Cuban Americans are the most strongly Republican ethnic group.
Mexican Americans were identified in Thomas Sowell’s Ethnic America as being the the most dependent on Government support, as compared to immigrants from any other country of origin (the was a few decades ago).
I remeber also noting happily that in his book the Filipinos were an excellent performing immigrant group, in terms of using little Government assistance. They are really much more Asian rather than Hispanic though.
Puerto Rico has a high rate of Government dependency among its population, and Puerto Ricans, both in Puerto Rico and on the mainland vote strongly in the Democrats favor.
Not surprising at all.
Many of those folks down here have immigrated from Cuba, Venezuela, El Salvador, etc. They’ve seen Communism up close and personal like, and needless to say, they aren’t fans.
Where I live on the Dade/Broward border, I can’t think of one American of Hispanic descent that I know personally is voting for The Empty Chair. Not one. Anecdotal evidence, yes, but I never ignore what my eyes and ears tell me.
Did you forget the #1 Venezuelan You Go Chavez? LOL! He said he would vote for uncle obie if he could. Don’t see why that’s a problem. He should be able to get an absentee ballot somewhere.
Helping keep mankind warm for 65 years. (In a deep Hemi rumble sort of way.)
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