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Latest developments in Iran: Ayatollah Khamenei decried "These sanctions are barbaric" ^

Posted on 10/13/2012 2:34:50 PM PDT by Orange1998

More worrisome signs are emerging of deteriorating economic conditions in Iran. Here are some of the latest news quotes:

1. Crude output is slowing.

NYT: - Daily oil production in Iran, the most important component of its economy, fell in September to the weakest level in nearly a quarter-century, according to monthly data released on Friday by the International Energy Agency. The agency forecast declines in Iran’s ability to produce oil for years to come if Western sanctions were not lifted

2. Trade in general has come under severe pressure. This is likely having a terrible impact on the population, particularly the poor.

Reuters: - Data from maritime intelligence publisher IHS Fairplay showed the overall number of vessels calling at Iranian ports in the year to early October was 980. That figure for more than three quarters of this year compares with 2,740 ships for the whole of 2011 and 3,407 for 2010.

Of that total, the number of visits by container ships - which carry consumer goods ranging from foodstuffs and household items to clothing and toys - was 86 so far this year, compared with 273 for the whole of 2011 and 378 in 2010.

The world's top container firm Maersk Line said this week it had stopped port calls to Iran, citing the risk of damaging trade opportunities especially in the United States.

"Lower shipping volumes may also mean that importing vital commodities will be increasingly hard, leading to possible riots over inflation," said Alan Fraser, Middle East analyst with security firm AKE.

Only eight refrigerated cargo vessels carrying fresh produce including bananas called at Iranian ports so far this year, down from 16 in 2011 and 36 in 2010, the IHS Fairplay data showed. Even fishing trawlers unloading their catch have slumped to five from 14 last year and 20 in 2010.

Starved of dollars as the sanctions curb oil exports, Iran bought large amounts of grain earlier this year using other currencies. Nevertheless dry bulk ships, which can carry cereals and commodities such as coal and iron ore, have also made fewer port calls with 100 arrivals so far compared with 352 in 2011 and 406 in 2010.

3. We are beginning to see the first signs of social unrest. But given the brutality with which the authorities are likely to respond, the protests have been largely subdued.

The Telegraph: - Economic hardship has triggered the first street protests in Iran for three years as Tehran struggles to cope with UN, US and EU measures imposed to punish the country for violating resolutions restricting its nuclear programme. Western officials believe that sanctions have put the regime under pressure. "There has been a wider effect on the economy and that affects people and businesses."

In a rare public concession that the regime was struggling with the sanctions, Ayatollah Khamenei decried the measures this week. "These sanctions are barbaric," he said. "This is a war against a nation. But the Iranian nation will defeat them."

4. Foreign firms are exiting Iran to avoid losing business with Western nations.

Reuters: - Iran has faced an exodus of international companies providing marine-related services including certification of its fleet, which is vital for securing insurance and ports access. Earlier this year, sanctions pressure also led to the near collapse of an Iranian-led shipping venture with an Indian firm.

5. Auto production is declining sharply.

NYT: - On Thursday, the Iranian Students’ News Agency reported a 42 percent drop in automotive production in the past six months compared with the same period a year earlier, without providing an explanation. But the rial’s severe drop has made imports of auto parts far more expensive. Last February, Peugeot, the French automaker that is a partner of Iran Khodro, Iran’s leading domestic automaker, withdrew from the country because of the strengthened Western sanctions.

6. The EU is about to impose harsher sanctions that will be focused among other things on financial transactions.

WSJ: - European firms will be banned from contracting any ships to transport Iranian oil—even if they are from outside the bloc. There will be a ban on marine equipment sales and European firms will be prohibited from constructing oil tankers for Iran.

But the most effective measures may be in the financial sector. Even for trade that is still allowed, there will be tight thresholds on transactions with Iranian banks that can go ahead without authorization.

The level of the threshold will depend on the sector, with humanitarian trade in food and medicines having a ceiling of €100,000. But for many other items, any tr ansaction over €10,000 with an Iranian bank will need pre-approval, diplomats said.

7. There are stories of increased tensions within the Iranian government, although so far there isn't much evidence to substantiate such claims. A rift within the government could trigger wider, potentially violent internal conflicts (as discussed here).

NBC: - [A Western intelligence] official told NBC News there are some signs of “tension within the Iranian regime” over the issue.

"We’ve picked up some small signs of wavering on the nuclear policy," the official, who did not want to be named, said. "But I don’t want to exaggerate it."

This situation needs to get resolved soon. One can only hope these events do not result in a massive humanitarian crisis, because the current situation has all the makings of one.

TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS: apauling; apaulogist; iran; sanctions; sourcetitlenoturl
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Sanctions are finally taking hold and Iran currency RIAL is going to be worthless soon. I believe Iran will have no choice but to make a deal to lift sanctions.
1 posted on 10/13/2012 2:34:55 PM PDT by Orange1998
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To: Orange1998
Or they can follow North Korea and sell out to gangster regimes wherever they can find them. Gee I wonder what they will do.
2 posted on 10/13/2012 2:40:43 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: hinckley buzzard

Iran is not a third world country. They will never revert to N.Korea style living.

3 posted on 10/13/2012 2:48:38 PM PDT by Orange1998
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To: Orange1998
"These sanctions are barbaric"

Well let's see here.

You got your beheadings. And pedophilia. Female mutilation. Slavery. Female subjugation. Dhimmitude. Nazi apologetics. Terrorism. Stonings. The "72 virgin" thingy. Rape gangs. Honor killings. And you worship a black rock.

(That sure is barbaric of us to take away your Pop Tarts and Pringles, eh?)
4 posted on 10/13/2012 2:51:50 PM PDT by shibumi (Cover it with gas and set it on fire.)
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To: Orange1998
I believe Iran will have no choice but to make a deal to lift sanctions.

Iran giving Obama a hint to 'lets make deal' to get the sanctions lifted and give him an election boost, then blow it all off in 3 months.

5 posted on 10/13/2012 2:51:52 PM PDT by AU72
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To: Orange1998

The problem is easily resolved.

They know exactly what they have to do.

6 posted on 10/13/2012 2:53:05 PM PDT by Venturer
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To: Orange1998

All of these articles reinforce what crazy Joe said and make Obama look good. Where are they getting their info? Yes the regime and they will type what they are told. Iran will create a bomb, nothing wil stop them until their buildings are smoldering thanks to BEBE.

7 posted on 10/13/2012 2:55:49 PM PDT by crosslink (Moderates should play in the middle of a busy street)
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To: Orange1998

You mean like the “deal” Japan made on 12/7/1941 as a result of US sanctions?

8 posted on 10/13/2012 2:56:43 PM PDT by 353FMG (The US Constitution is only as effective as those who enforce it.)
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To: Orange1998
He's on the talking points distribution too???
9 posted on 10/13/2012 2:57:09 PM PDT by NonValueAdded ("Why not eliminate the middle man and have whoever feeds Obama his lines debate Romney directly?")
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To: Orange1998

Go to hell Ayatollah Khamenei

10 posted on 10/13/2012 3:00:08 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: Orange1998
Ayatollah Khamenei decried "These sanctions are barbaric"

... and we know barbaric

11 posted on 10/13/2012 3:00:31 PM PDT by Lonesome in Massachussets ( Message to President Obama: Mene, mene, tekel, upharsin)
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To: 353FMG

Exactly. Iran is being pushed to the edge.

12 posted on 10/13/2012 3:44:55 PM PDT by Orange1998
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To: Orange1998

Cuba hasn’t surrendered after 52 years sanctions. Sanctions are primarily useful for softening up a battleground ahead of military aggression.

13 posted on 10/13/2012 3:47:49 PM PDT by Reeses
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To: crosslink
The charts do not lie. Here is a 70 day chart. I don't care who get the credit if it saves one American life. Stop the war mongering.
14 posted on 10/13/2012 3:50:24 PM PDT by Orange1998
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To: Reeses

Cuba, North Korea standard of living is nothing like Iran. The people will revolt and the government will lash out with desperate measures.

15 posted on 10/13/2012 3:54:31 PM PDT by Orange1998
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To: Orange1998

That a nice graph. It means little unless you happen to read Farsi. I would guess that less than 1% of FReepers do.

16 posted on 10/13/2012 3:57:38 PM PDT by FreedomPoster (Islam delenda est.)
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To: FreedomPoster

Yes Persian Calender. Just knowing time frame of 70 days and X Y charts is enough to understand.

17 posted on 10/13/2012 4:02:51 PM PDT by Orange1998
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To: Orange1998

Actually, Iran Sanctions Aren’t Working

By Dina Esfandiary (Source: RFE/RL)

Sanctions have certainly weakened the economy. They have cut off Iran’s access to the international financial system, making it difficult for Iran to sell and receive payment for its oil. But the collapse of the rial is not as simple as that.

Iran’s economy has been mismanaged for years. The only effort made to redress it — the removal of the subsidy program in 2010 — only worsened the situation by contributing to rising inflation and unemployment. Because of this, the Iranian public appears to be having a crisis of confidence in the government’s ability and will to tackle the country’s economic problems. This is exacerbated by the fact that there seems to be no end in sight to Iran’s problems. In fact, the U.S. and the EU are working on further measures to tighten the squeeze on Iran.

18 posted on 10/13/2012 4:09:52 PM PDT by EBH (0bama is guilty of willful neglect of duty.)
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Reading the whole article it basically says Iran sanction is working. The title is misleading. Instead of “smart sanctions” it sanctions across the board.

19 posted on 10/13/2012 4:17:44 PM PDT by Orange1998
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To: Orange1998
The people will revolt

Because they can't get iPhones? Iran spends a small amount of their GDP on their military, mainly for deterrence. They think building an atomic weapon is a cheap way to juice up their stature without spending as much GDP on their military as the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. What they want to do is actually rational, but Israel doesn't like it.

20 posted on 10/13/2012 4:19:08 PM PDT by Reeses
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