Posted on 10/13/2012 2:34:50 PM PDT by Orange1998
More worrisome signs are emerging of deteriorating economic conditions in Iran. Here are some of the latest news quotes:
1. Crude output is slowing.
NYT: - Daily oil production in Iran, the most important component of its economy, fell in September to the weakest level in nearly a quarter-century, according to monthly data released on Friday by the International Energy Agency. The agency forecast declines in Iran’s ability to produce oil for years to come if Western sanctions were not lifted
2. Trade in general has come under severe pressure. This is likely having a terrible impact on the population, particularly the poor.
Reuters: - Data from maritime intelligence publisher IHS Fairplay showed the overall number of vessels calling at Iranian ports in the year to early October was 980. That figure for more than three quarters of this year compares with 2,740 ships for the whole of 2011 and 3,407 for 2010.
Of that total, the number of visits by container ships - which carry consumer goods ranging from foodstuffs and household items to clothing and toys - was 86 so far this year, compared with 273 for the whole of 2011 and 378 in 2010.
The world's top container firm Maersk Line said this week it had stopped port calls to Iran, citing the risk of damaging trade opportunities especially in the United States.
"Lower shipping volumes may also mean that importing vital commodities will be increasingly hard, leading to possible riots over inflation," said Alan Fraser, Middle East analyst with security firm AKE.
Only eight refrigerated cargo vessels carrying fresh produce including bananas called at Iranian ports so far this year, down from 16 in 2011 and 36 in 2010, the IHS Fairplay data showed. Even fishing trawlers unloading their catch have slumped to five from 14 last year and 20 in 2010.
Starved of dollars as the sanctions curb oil exports, Iran bought large amounts of grain earlier this year using other currencies. Nevertheless dry bulk ships, which can carry cereals and commodities such as coal and iron ore, have also made fewer port calls with 100 arrivals so far compared with 352 in 2011 and 406 in 2010.
3. We are beginning to see the first signs of social unrest. But given the brutality with which the authorities are likely to respond, the protests have been largely subdued.
The Telegraph: - Economic hardship has triggered the first street protests in Iran for three years as Tehran struggles to cope with UN, US and EU measures imposed to punish the country for violating resolutions restricting its nuclear programme. Western officials believe that sanctions have put the regime under pressure. "There has been a wider effect on the economy and that affects people and businesses."
In a rare public concession that the regime was struggling with the sanctions, Ayatollah Khamenei decried the measures this week. "These sanctions are barbaric," he said. "This is a war against a nation. But the Iranian nation will defeat them."
4. Foreign firms are exiting Iran to avoid losing business with Western nations.
Reuters: - Iran has faced an exodus of international companies providing marine-related services including certification of its fleet, which is vital for securing insurance and ports access. Earlier this year, sanctions pressure also led to the near collapse of an Iranian-led shipping venture with an Indian firm.
5. Auto production is declining sharply.
NYT: - On Thursday, the Iranian Students’ News Agency reported a 42 percent drop in automotive production in the past six months compared with the same period a year earlier, without providing an explanation. But the rial’s severe drop has made imports of auto parts far more expensive. Last February, Peugeot, the French automaker that is a partner of Iran Khodro, Iran’s leading domestic automaker, withdrew from the country because of the strengthened Western sanctions.
6. The EU is about to impose harsher sanctions that will be focused among other things on financial transactions.
WSJ: - European firms will be banned from contracting any ships to transport Iranian oil—even if they are from outside the bloc. There will be a ban on marine equipment sales and European firms will be prohibited from constructing oil tankers for Iran.
But the most effective measures may be in the financial sector. Even for trade that is still allowed, there will be tight thresholds on transactions with Iranian banks that can go ahead without authorization.
The level of the threshold will depend on the sector, with humanitarian trade in food and medicines having a ceiling of €100,000. But for many other items, any tr ansaction over €10,000 with an Iranian bank will need pre-approval, diplomats said.
7. There are stories of increased tensions within the Iranian government, although so far there isn't much evidence to substantiate such claims. A rift within the government could trigger wider, potentially violent internal conflicts (as discussed here).
NBC: - [A Western intelligence] official told NBC News there are some signs of “tension within the Iranian regime” over the issue.
"We’ve picked up some small signs of wavering on the nuclear policy," the official, who did not want to be named, said. "But I don’t want to exaggerate it."
This situation needs to get resolved soon. One can only hope these events do not result in a massive humanitarian crisis, because the current situation has all the makings of one.
Iran having nuclear weapons is "rational"? And we shouldn't try to stop them b/c "Israel doesn't like it"? Are you on the right website?
If odumbi wins, the Ayatollah will recieve megatons of Israeli flying fish.
Israel are perfectly capable of handling Iran.
Here is time line of North Korea. Not much said when Bush removed N. Korea from the Terrorism list. I could not believe he allowed this to happen.
29 January 2002: U.S. President George W. Bush in his State of the Union Address named North Korea as part of the axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world and posing a grave danger.
11 October 2008: The US removes North Korea from its State Sponsors of Terrorism list.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea_Nuclear_Program_Chronology
:’D
100% agree. We shouldn't send any American troops to attack a conservative country on behalf of a socialist one.
Not when you don’t know what the numbers on the Y axis mean.
It needs a Farsi translation.
Is the Calvary coming.
Are you? This is a pro-gun ownership site, even supporting gun ownership for neighbors we don't like. Atomic weapon ownership is the national equivalent of gun ownership. Politically we can't nuke Iran unless they have them. If Iran-sponsored terrorists nuked NYC, 1) mostly Democrats would be nuked, and 2) both Iran and the Democrat party would cease to exist.
You can't be serious.
Politically we can't nuke Iran unless they have them.
You want this to escalate to nuclear war?
If Iran-sponsored terrorists nuked NYC, 1) mostly Democrats would be nuked, and 2) both Iran and the Democrat party would cease to exist.
You can't make an omelet without breaking a few eggs, right?
You said”Stop the war mongering”
Don’t believe everything you read. Lots of businesses run on the black market in Iran. Most all of their oil is done in other currencies and outside of the embargo. They knew this was going to happen.The people will get screwed but guess what they have nothing they can do about it.
Obama is such a child in his understanding of international diplomacy that we are closer to war in 10 or more country’s. Stopping the manufacturing of a nuclear device by a country that wants to start world war 3 is not war mongering. Having a device supplied to the Mexican gangs that is smuggled into our country and kills millions has to be kept from happening. If that means helping BEBE I guess I’m for a little war mongering.
"I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States".
No where does it say he/she will defend another country. Let Israel take care of Iran, they are very well capable.
Keep smoking your pot with Ron Paul as the Iranian nuke weapons are smuggled in to our country by the Mexican gangs. Enjoy the buss as millions of Americans that are incinerated.
Got many friends? How about someone who can count on you in a pinch?
I like Israel and I support war, but what they want to do to Iran is not legal, which is why they have no international coalition of support. If they start it, they can suffer all the consequences on their own.
Come on do you really believe a Third World country has the capability.
You can be a friend without fighting their fight. Say a loud mouth bully is picking on your friend and you know full well he can take care of himself. The fight is on and your friend knocks the bully down and out are you going to jump in and kick the bully.
The only possible involvement, if someone jumps in the fight in unfair advantage.
Israel if fully capable of taking care of Iran.
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