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If Romney Wins, Here's Who He'll Have to Thank
Barrons ^ | Jim McTague

Posted on 10/13/2012 2:51:31 PM PDT by oblomov

An analysis by a savvy demographer points to the states Romney is likely to take—and why he's on the path to victory. Sizing up population growth in key GOP states.

The presidential race has grown closer since Mitt Romney and Barack Obama squared off in the first of three debates, with the Republican challenger edging ahead in the polls in several key states. But Romney never was the underdog depicted by the mainstream press, and Obama's path to victory is much steeper than his campaign team appreciates; they've long felt they have it in the bag.

Former GOP demographer John Morgan Sr. says Obama's biggest problem is that the national temperament leans Republican, as evidenced by the 2010 midterm elections, where Republican victories were both widespread and deep. The party not only captured the U.S. House of Representatives, it also scored big victories at the state-government level, even in places like Pennsylvania that are perceived as predictably Democratic.

Political scientists generally discount the predictive power of midterms—and with good reason—but this time may be different. Turnout for these contests generally is short of its potential by 30% to 40%, which is too low to be reflective of the nation's mood, the argument goes. And a party that is out of power typically scores gains in a midterm because its adherents are frustrated, angry, and consequently more energized than the incumbent party. This was true in 2006 when Democrats took back Congress from the GOP. In 2010, a backlash against Obamacare by Republicans certainly was the biggest factor in their rout of the Democrats.

But Morgan reasons that the 2010 election was not your run-of-the-mill midterm. "It was historic," he says, comparing it to epic GOP victories in 1894 and 1924.

(Excerpt) Read more at online.barrons.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Editorial; Philosophy; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012swingstates; demographics; election; romney; romney2012; trends
The momentum is with Romney now. This article puts this election in context of demographic trends.
1 posted on 10/13/2012 2:51:35 PM PDT by oblomov
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To: oblomov

link is subscription only


2 posted on 10/13/2012 3:07:24 PM PDT by TonyInOhio ("But, the Obama has no clothes!")
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To: oblomov

I have worked with John Morgan. He is one of the shrewdest political demographers to ever come down the pike.


3 posted on 10/13/2012 3:10:35 PM PDT by Rockingham
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Comment #4 Removed by Moderator

To: PMAS

I did a word search. No “Palin.” Invalid article.


5 posted on 10/13/2012 3:16:07 PM PDT by Cyber Liberty (Obama considers the Third World morally superior to the United States.)
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To: oblomov

Re: population growth in red states: thanks, Dems for screwing up your states so bad you are on the road to single digit EV counts. It was almost worth the influx of lefties. Almost.


6 posted on 10/13/2012 3:20:34 PM PDT by UltraV (I use the term Leftist not liberal, because a true liberal would not support government censorship.)
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To: PMAS

Why did you post the whole thing? We should go to the source. They did the work, they deserve the credit for it.


7 posted on 10/13/2012 3:22:49 PM PDT by UltraV (I use the term Leftist not liberal, because a true liberal would not support government censorship.)
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To: oblomov

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111903463204578048870829726606.html?mod=BOL_twm_fs#articleTabs_article%3D1

Here’s the link to the article.


8 posted on 10/13/2012 3:23:43 PM PDT by UltraV (I use the term Leftist not liberal, because a true liberal would not support government censorship.)
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To: TonyInOhio

Select a key phrase and Google it.

“Former GOP demographer John Morgan Sr. says Obama’s biggest problem”

Works for me.


9 posted on 10/13/2012 3:35:19 PM PDT by DUMBGRUNT (The best is the enemy of the good!)
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To: UltraV

The link said for subscribers only, that’s why


10 posted on 10/13/2012 3:53:06 PM PDT by PMAS (All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing)
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To: PMAS

It was in print mode, all you had to do was google it. Besides, that doesn’t make it any better.


11 posted on 10/13/2012 3:54:11 PM PDT by UltraV (I use the term Leftist not liberal, because a true liberal would not support government censorship.)
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To: UltraV

I was just trying to help, no reason to get testy - besides I don’t use Google (for good reason).


12 posted on 10/13/2012 3:56:17 PM PDT by PMAS (All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing)
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To: UltraV

By the way, welcome to FreeRepublic, FRiend


13 posted on 10/13/2012 3:57:47 PM PDT by PMAS (All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing)
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To: oblomov

I want to give credit to Kevin DuJan of hillbuzz.org who has been working non-stop to get Obama out of office.


14 posted on 10/13/2012 4:44:51 PM PDT by diamond6 (Freerepublic.com and Hillbuzz.org are my go to sites for conservative news.)
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To: Cyber Liberty

Agreed. Also the author got it wrong regarding historical GOP elections. It was 1920 that the GOP got 62 House seats and 10 Senate seats in the Harding landslide, not 1924.


15 posted on 10/13/2012 4:48:34 PM PDT by princeofdarkness ( Nobama. No more. No way. November 2012.)
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To: Cyber Liberty

What’s Palin got to do with any of this?


16 posted on 10/13/2012 6:03:25 PM PDT by GunRunner (***Not associated with any criminal actions by the ATF***)
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To: GunRunner

Apparently nothing, huh?


17 posted on 10/13/2012 6:24:37 PM PDT by Cyber Liberty (Obama considers the Third World morally superior to the United States.)
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To: PMAS

Some FReepers continuously have their panties in a bind. LOL!!


18 posted on 10/13/2012 7:25:08 PM PDT by diamond6 (Freerepublic.com and Hillbuzz.org are my go to sites for conservative news.)
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thanks for posting the whole article.


19 posted on 10/13/2012 11:22:54 PM PDT by vbmoneyspender
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To: oblomov

The very critical point being overlooked here is that the country has always leaned Republican, if you consider that to mean the values espoused by the GOP. The “Silent Majority” has always been there.

The only way that the Democrats have ever won the majority of votes is because the Republican “leadership” has “mis(mal)managed” power when they had it.

Have you not felt the frustration of knowing that any competent high-school student could hand the Democrats their lunch at any given point in time.

THERE IS NO POSSIBLE WAY THAT WE COULD BE IN THE DEPLORABLE STATE THAT WE FIND OURSELVES IN, RIGHT NOW, WITHOUT THE CONNIVANCE OF BOTH PARTIES.


20 posted on 10/14/2012 4:59:27 AM PDT by David Isaac
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To: diamond6

“Some FReepers continuously have their panties in a bind. LOL!!”

Certainly seems that way.


21 posted on 10/14/2012 6:29:18 AM PDT by PMAS (All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing)
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