Skip to comments.New Study Shows Obama's Emotional Connection to Voters Eroding While Romney's Improves
Posted on 10/13/2012 3:21:50 PM PDT by smoothsailing
San Mateo, CA (PRWEB) October 12, 2012
A breakthrough new study released today by an innovative brand research firm reveals that since the first presidential debate Republican candidate Mitt Romney has strengthened his emotional connection to American voters, while President Barak Obama lost ground.
The results of a new Presidential Emotional Connection Study released today by Motista shows that while President Obama continues to enjoy the emotional advantage over Romney, shifts in voters emotional connection with the candidates might projectbeyond typical polls of likely voterswho will get the turnout needed to win the election.
The study shows that among one of the most powerful emotional driversconfidence the future will be betterRomney has gained a significant edge since the debate.
Emotionally connected voters are most likely to turn out for their candidates on Election Day because they feel the candidate impacts them personally, said Alan Zorfas, founder of Motista. When you look at candidates as brands, you can quantify which factors are likely to have the biggest impact on voting behavior.
The study from Motista a firm that provides consumer intelligence to help Fortune 1000 marketers understand and measure how emotion impacts their brands shows how these top emotional factors will impact voter behavior by quantifying the most powerful emotions motivating voters to act. This goes beyond whether a voter perceives a candidate to be likable, qualified or even cool.
With the campaign in a virtual dead heat, shifts in emotional connection could very well be the deciding factor, Zorfas said. President Obama has the characteristics of a strong brand. When you compare Obamas party base with Romneys party base, Obamas supporters are more emotionally connected to the candidate, and his greatest advantages are measures of coolness, being admired, entertaining, and his authenticity.
But, the news post-debate is that on a single critical factor confidence the future will be better Romney leapfrogged Obama, Zorfas said.
On this key factor, the emotional connection to Obama among his party base dropped 11.1%, the biggest change for Obama. At the same time, Romney surged 6.5% with his party base, giving the Republican challenger a 12.9% advantage post-debate. 60% of Romneys party base connects with Romney on this measure, vs. 47.5% of Obamas party base. Romney also gained on other top drivers like feel secure and feel free and independent.
This is so important because while Obama enjoys an edge on other emotional drivers like happiness and belonging with others, with the race is in a dead heat any shift could tip the scales one way or the other, said Zorfas. Beyond perceptions of the candidate, these connections are what motivate people to vote.
The Motista study shows that before the debate, 37.8% of Obama Democrats were emotionally connected to the President, compared to only 26.5% of Romney Republicans to their nominee. Post-debate, Obamas emotional support remained flat (36.6%) while Romney grew to 33%, a virtual tie on emotion with supporters.
The report also shows that those voters who are emotionally connected to a candidate have a stronger intent to vote. For example, voters who are emotionally connected to Romney are 25% more likely to definitely vote for the candidate than those who see merely see the candidate as qualified, but dont feel emotionally connected.
Emotionally connected voters are also almost twice as likely to have recently forwarded information about the candidate to a friend or relative. Theyre 2.5 times more likely to follow the candidate on Facebook or Twitter. And, theyre over 3 times more likely to have donated. The emotionally-connected party base acts, reinforced Zorfas. And this is the key to turnout.
By assessing candidates as brands and applying scientific rigor as we do with our clients brands, we move beyond likability scores or perceptions of candidate attributes that might not drive the vote, said Zorfas. While voters may perceive Obama to be more personable or Romney to be more likely to reduce the deficit, how people link these items to their own personal feelings about future, family, society and the pursuit of happiness is what drives them to the voting booth.
Motista surveyed 2,600 likely voters across two waves. First, the survey was fielded between 9/24-10/2, two weeks after the Democratic National Convention. A second wave was fielded 10/4-10/7, the period right after the first debate. The population is nationally representative for geography, age, gender and ethnicity. The study has a margin of error of 3.98 at a 95% confidence level.
Motista also looked at independents that are less committed to either candidate. We believe the debate format provided independent voters who are now tuning in an opportunity to engage the candidates and their stances in a more direct way, Zorfas said. This group is going through a learning process that might lead them to make an emotional connection with the candidates. Obama enjoys an incumbent advantage of simply being better known.
The report shows that 17.4% of independents feel emotionally connected to Obama. This stayed steady at 17.6% post-debate. Romney actually dropped 10 points with 16.2% feeling connected pre-debate, falling to 6% post-debate.
While emotion is the strongest driver of action, this group is still using their left brain to think about their options. In marketing, this segment might not be a great target. In elections, making an emotional connection in the final weeks could make or break a campaign, said Zorfas.
Download the Motista Presidential Emotional Connection Study brief at http://www.motista.com. Alan Zorfas can be reached at email@example.com.
Summary of key findings:
Motista was formed in 2007 to help Fortune 1000 companies quantify and act on emotion with consumers. Motista works with leading brands in financial services, hospitality, restaurant, consumer electronics and retail. The company has fielded over 500,000 surveys with consumers validating its connection model for measuring the impact of emotional connection on business outcomes.
Our Affirmative Action Pres__ent has failed.
My emotions toward him are pretty strong..
Anyone who feels an emotional connection with Obama has some serious mental problems.
I don’t know about that ... I have some very strong emotions towards zero
“Anyone who feels an emotional connection with Obama has some serious mental problems.”
Au contraire, mon ami. If Buckwheat were found guilty of treason and hanged, I’d be overflowing with emotion watching the whole procedure.
And I hope to be overflowing with emotion on Nov. 6. I will seriously cry tears of joy when (okay - if) Romney wins! And I am NOT a Romney fan but he sure is way better than Odumbo!
Hopefully they asked about other "drivers" such "Do you enjoy being a dependent ward of the state" and "Do you enjoy living on the Democrat plantation?" so Democrats didn't feel left out.
You wouldn't know it by the signage or bumper stickers because there are none. I can count on one hand and have fingers left over the number of Obammer signs I have seen. There are a smattering of Romney signs and that's it.
And remember, this is an area that's been through its share of extra elections lately--during the Walker recall there were signs EVERYWHERE...heck there's still probably more Walker signs left over on lawns than there are signs for the Presidential candidates.
Are we in this area just plain sick of elections? Perhaps. I just find it extremely odd. But I hope those who crawled over broken glass to stick it to the Dems who were attacking our Governor are not the ones who are fatigued.
We visited Seattle recently. I expected Obama signs to be everywhere. Never saw a one.
“I live in a southwestern Milwaukee suburb. There are pockets of Milwaukee proper all around me. As I drive around I am astonished to realize that there’s a national election in just 4 weeks. You wouldn’t know it by the signage or bumper stickers because there are none. I can count on one hand and have fingers left over the number of Obammer signs I have seen.”
Funny. I’ve driven thru Denver downtown adjacent twice this week. It is left-wing central. Four years ago, these drives would have been littered with Obama signs. I saw one Obama sign. Two Romney signs. The Romney signs were defensively posted so noone could identify what house they were with. That way, noone got egged. The Obama sign was in a front yard.
~ Rick Wilson
I live in SW Pa. There’s signage for local and state races around, but nothing for national. I think it’s a good sign. Romney supporters don’t want the vandalism and former Obama supporters are either embarrassed or just aren’t interested.
Excellent, I hadn’t seen that before. Thanks!