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Obama leads 51-46 in Ohio (Dem oriented PPP)
PPP polling ^ | October 13, 2012 | PPP

Posted on 10/13/2012 6:27:43 PM PDT by Colonel Kangaroo

PPP's newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading 51-46, a 5 point lead not too different from our last poll two weeks ago when he led 49-45.

The key finding on this poll may be how the early voters are breaking out. 19% of people say they've already cast their ballots and they report having voted for Obama by a 76-24 margin. Romney has a 51-45 advantage with those who haven't voted yet, but the numbers make it clear that he already has a lot of ground to make up in the final three weeks before the election.

We've found a major improvement in Mitt Romney's image in most of the states that we've polled since the Presidential debate, but Ohio is an exception. His favorability now is a 45/51 spread, showing no improvement from his 45/49 breakdown two weeks ago. Obama meanwhile has seen a small spike in his approval rating, from 48/49 to 50/48.

The Vice Presidential debate may have given Obama at least a small boost as well. 46% of Ohio voters think Joe Biden won it to 37% who believe Paul Ryan was the victor. Biden's advantage is 44/32 with independents. 62% of both Democrats and Republicans say they're 'very excited' to vote this fall, reversing a trend we saw in some post-Presidential debate polling of GOP voters expressing more enthusiasm about the election this year.

One thing clear from our poll: Republican efforts to make a big deal out of Libya aren't succeeding. By a 51/43 margin, voters trust Obama more than Romney on dealing with that issue. Obama also has a 51/46 advantage on dealing with the economy that mirrors his overall lead.

One reason Romney might be struggling to get traction in Ohio even as he surges elsewhere is his record on the auto bailout. Voters in the state support it by a 54/37 margin, including 58/35 with independents. They think Obama would be better than Romney for the auto industry 50/43, and 79% of voters consider it to be an important issue including 42% who say it's 'very important.'

In the US Senate race Sherrod Brown leads Republican challenger Josh Mandel 49-42, little change from a 49-41 advantage two weeks ago. Brown has narrowly positive approval numbers on this poll with 45% of voters giving him good marks to 43% who disapprove. Mandel meanwhile continues to be unpopular with only 37% of voters expressing a positive opinion of him to 50% with a negative one. Mandel may have more to worry about in 2014- he trails a generic Democrat 40-39 for reelection as State Treasurer. This campaign- at least to date- has been pretty damaging to his image. Others notes from Ohio:

-The state's referendum to create an independent commission on redistricting looks a little bit more alive than it did two weeks ago, although it's still an uphill battle. 37% of voters support it to 44% opposed, compared to a 26/49 spread last time. The main movement has been among Democrats who've gone from favoring it only narrowly (37/34) to pretty strong support (58/24).

-John Kasich has a 42/41 approval spread and leads a hypothetical Democratic opponent 45-42.

-John Boehner's very unpopular in his home state with a 33/46 approval rating. Nevertheless Republicans lead the generic Congressional ballot 44-42.

-Rob Portman has a 35/25 approval rating. 40% of voters have no opinion about him.

Full results here


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates
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Given the pollster's background, I strongly doubt things are as rosy for Obama in Ohio as PPP has it. But I think we are kidding ourselves if we go to the other extreme and expect a Romney landslide. The fate of the election is still up in the air and it rests on the persuasion of a relatively small group of the less-informed and less-motivated.
1 posted on 10/13/2012 6:27:46 PM PDT by Colonel Kangaroo
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

I wonder how many out of state plates and people are wandering around that state.


2 posted on 10/13/2012 6:29:54 PM PDT by combat_boots (The Lion of Judah cometh. Hallelujah. Gloria Patri, Filio et Spiritui Sancto.)
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To: Colonel Kangaroo
One thing clear from our poll: Republican efforts to make a big deal out of Libya aren't succeeding.

Is this a Joey Buffoon Clown poll? These people are way out of touch with reality.

3 posted on 10/13/2012 6:32:20 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Dude! Where's my Obama "foam"?)
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To: combat_boots

There’s not a trick in the book that we should not expect to be tried in Ohio.


4 posted on 10/13/2012 6:33:05 PM PDT by Colonel Kangaroo
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To: FlingWingFlyer

Weird that the Romney campaign is taking commanding leads everywhere else, but this person singles out the Libya message ‘bot working’ in Ohio. Nope. No agenda from that person.


5 posted on 10/13/2012 6:35:14 PM PDT by ilgipper
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To: Colonel Kangaroo; LS

D 40
R 36
I 24

The poll oversampled Rats by 4.

This is odd.

“The key finding on this poll may be how the early voters are breaking out. 19% of people say they’ve already cast their ballots and they report having voted for Obama by a 76-24 margin. Romney has a 51-45 advantage with those who haven’t voted yet, but the numbers make it clear that he already has a lot of ground to make up in the final three weeks before the election.”


6 posted on 10/13/2012 6:35:37 PM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obamar)
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

hate to say it but I think Ohio is going to be in the Obama column.... they’ve hammered the airwaves with Obama ads and its having its impact.. the message of “why change now” is working... I know quiet a few people in Ohio and they can’t believe the number of people they know that are voting for Obama.


7 posted on 10/13/2012 6:35:43 PM PDT by Heff (Half this country is that stupid.)
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

Every poll, national and swing states, since debate has shown a Romney bounce of 4-7 points - including in Ohio. Yet this Dem poll shows an Obama gain?

This is a bogus poll meant to pump up left and stop Romney momentum. Won’t work.


8 posted on 10/13/2012 6:36:08 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: LS; Perdogg

Ping


9 posted on 10/13/2012 6:37:12 PM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

Every poll, national and swing states, since debate has shown a Romney bounce of 4-7 points - including in Ohio. Yet this Dem poll shows an Obama gain?

This is a bogus poll meant to pump up left and stop Romney momentum. Won’t work.


10 posted on 10/13/2012 6:37:12 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: ilgipper

Washington Post Exclusive: PPP Caught Doing Advocacy Polling

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2943462/posts


11 posted on 10/13/2012 6:37:24 PM PDT by hcmama
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To: Colonel Kangaroo
Stark comparison to what LS's numbers show.

How do we account for the difference between LS' numbers and these?

It seems a far stretch to say "well, the Dems are just casting their reduced number of absentee ballots more quickly than Republicans."

So something is funny in the numbers - no?

... I understand that the first response is going to be "PPP is totally biased, in the tank for Obama."

Maybe that is the answer - but is it sincerely the answer? What explains the contrast without sheer (even educated) speculation?

12 posted on 10/13/2012 6:37:47 PM PDT by HannibalHamlinJr
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To: KansasGirl

No way the electorate will be 40% D on election day.


13 posted on 10/13/2012 6:38:09 PM PDT by mrs9x
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

I call BS on this


14 posted on 10/13/2012 6:38:34 PM PDT by barmag25
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

Looking at the secondary questions, and the percentages on different issues, it is clear this poll is deeply flawed. It shows drastically different results among independents, positions on issues, etc. I think we can ignore this one unless we see similar results elsewhere.


15 posted on 10/13/2012 6:38:44 PM PDT by ilgipper
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To: ilgipper

According to PPP, Ohio is just a political oddity among swing states.


16 posted on 10/13/2012 6:39:20 PM PDT by hcmama
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To: HannibalHamlinJr

... PS ... in my post above I’m referring to the part of the poll that talks about early votes cast ... not the entire poll.


17 posted on 10/13/2012 6:39:26 PM PDT by HannibalHamlinJr
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To: HannibalHamlinJr

Rasmussen has 48-47 for O.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president


18 posted on 10/13/2012 6:39:26 PM PDT by Signalman
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

I think Romney better start focusing on states that could potentially replace Ohio’s EVs in the path to victory. Sounds like they’re enjoying Obama’s $18 billion corporate welfare payment way too much to vote against him.


19 posted on 10/13/2012 6:40:20 PM PDT by JediJones (ROMNEY/RYAN: TURNAROUND ARTISTS ***** OBAMA/BIDEN: BULL $HIT ARTISTS)
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

A PPP poll is about as credible as a Alexrod talking point ...


20 posted on 10/13/2012 6:42:13 PM PDT by Popman (November 7th...will be a good day for America..)
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To: HannibalHamlinJr

According to PPP’s Twitter feed their first nights of polling showed an incredibly tight race. The KOS/DU kooks went nuts. But on Saturday, everything turned around for Barak and Blowhole. They did “much better.”


21 posted on 10/13/2012 6:44:00 PM PDT by hcmama
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2944401/posts

Gravis Poll

R 46
O 45

D 36.4, R 33.1, I 30.5

This poll has a much better sample. Although it is more likely to be an even, or R + 1 or 2 on election day.

PPP is a lying Rat pollster and full of it!


22 posted on 10/13/2012 6:44:56 PM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obamar)
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To: KansasGirl; LS

Ohio is worrying the you know what out of me.

:/


23 posted on 10/13/2012 6:48:31 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: KansasGirl

CORRECTION: the Gravis poll is Rat +6.

Democrat
36.4%
Other
33.1%
Republican
30.5%


24 posted on 10/13/2012 6:49:31 PM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obamar)
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

Gravitas just two days ago had Romney up one with a +6 D sample. Don’t buy this for a minute. This outfit is by far the most biased for reasons OTHER than the D/R split. I won’t go into their questions again, but I’m confident in the earlier poll. This is not an outlier. It’s a fraud.


25 posted on 10/13/2012 6:51:08 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

BTW, the way you KNOW this poll is bogus is the Brown/Mandell number: every other recent poll has this tied or has Mandell ahead, but this one has an 8-point Brown lead. So, I submit to you the right # here is Romney by 3, and yes, if he wins OH by 3 it will be a very big win nationally.


26 posted on 10/13/2012 6:52:56 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: KansasGirl
The poll oversampled Rats by 4...and undersampled Independents by a good four or five points probably, and with I's going five points for Romney, this would about make the difference......
27 posted on 10/13/2012 6:56:36 PM PDT by Intolerant in NJ
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

Hmmm? I wonder who the families of the four who were murdered in Libya would favor in this goofy poll? The Ohian people, and the rest of the people in the country, better wake up and realize that this administration can’t be trusted to tell the truth.


28 posted on 10/13/2012 6:56:36 PM PDT by eeriegeno (<p>)
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To: HannibalHamlinJr
Here is how you test: last two polls by Ras and (I forget other group) had Mandell tied and/or up one. This one has him down eight.

So, that tells me the real number is Romney by about 3.

To answer your question about contrast---and remember, Gravitas had Romney up one in OH 48 hours ago---you need to look at their QUESTIONS. In the previous OH PPP poll, they asked: (now, remember this is OHIO):

"What is your opinion of Elizabeth Warren?" (!!)

"Who is more responsible for killing Osama bin Laden, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?"

"What is your opinion or Julian Castro?"

"What is your opinion of Martin O'Malley?"

In case you don't recognize these people, they were speakers at the DEMOCRAT convention and only DEMOCRATS would even know who they are. I bet 20% of all Ohioans don't know who Elizabeth Warren is. Yet the PPP Poll did not ask about Mandell that time.

I think these people are as reliable as the old Zobgy internet polls.

29 posted on 10/13/2012 6:59:59 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS

What do you make of this?

“The key finding on this poll may be how the early voters are breaking out. 19% of people say they’ve already cast their ballots and they report having voted for Obama by a 76-24 margin. Romney has a 51-45 advantage with those who haven’t voted yet, but the numbers make it clear that he already has a lot of ground to make up in the final three weeks before the election.”


30 posted on 10/13/2012 7:00:45 PM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obamar)
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To: KansasGirl

And even that sample is D-heavy.


31 posted on 10/13/2012 7:01:18 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: snarkytart

So, we should elevate this one over Gravis which, with a +6 has a Romney lead? And we should give this credibility when Ras has Obama up one with a +3 D advantage? I say nay nay.


32 posted on 10/13/2012 7:03:59 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: snarkytart

So, we should elevate this one over Gravis which, with a +6 D advantage has a Romney lead? And we should give this credibility when Ras has Obama up one with a +3 D advantage? I say nay nay.


33 posted on 10/13/2012 7:04:18 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: HannibalHamlinJr

Well, the early votes aren’t officially counted until election night. So it seems to me, this 3-1 garbage is just an exit poll, which always seems to favor Democrats.


34 posted on 10/13/2012 7:05:46 PM PDT by Jaguarmike
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To: LS

Yes, you’re right but, ooooo I can’t shake 2008 in my head.


35 posted on 10/13/2012 7:08:47 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: snarkytart
Believe me, I know. I worry that 30% of those new Republican voters will vote D. But it just doesn't seem to make any sense.

If this was any outfit but PPP, I'd be worried. Ras at D+3 is oversampling Ds and still only has Obama +1 and still not at 50. The absentee numbers are tightening, but Rs still have decisive, often dominant leads or turnarounds from 04. But I'll admit, could be surprised on election night.

More than likely, though, it's the Ds who will be surprised.

36 posted on 10/13/2012 7:12:58 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

WaPo caught PPP with their hand in the cookie jar. These people are frauds. Outed by less dishonest fellow libs.


37 posted on 10/13/2012 7:18:19 PM PDT by sitetest (If Roe is not overturned, no unborn child will ever be protected in law.)
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To: Colonel Kangaroo
The New Republic: Romney's Best Polling Day Yet
38 posted on 10/13/2012 7:19:41 PM PDT by TonyInOhio ("But, the Obama has no clothes!")
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To: HannibalHamlinJr

Use some common sense here. Republicans have requested 23.4% of early ballots and dems 30 percent. The other 46 % are unaffiliateds. This is hard data from the spreadsheet. For obama tohave a 76 to 24 lead among early voters, one must assume he gets all 30 % of the dems requesting ballots plus ALL THE OTHER 46% UNAFFILIATEDS REQUESTING BALLOTS WHICH IS JUST ABSURD ON ITS FACE.


39 posted on 10/13/2012 7:20:20 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: LS
Hey LS -

Thanks, but my question isn't about the inaccurate poll, it is specifically about reconciling the below italicized sentence with your early ballot request numbers in Ohio. It's out of mere curiosity, I'm not worried about Ohio.

If both things are true - your numbers, and the numbers referred to below, then we are looking at a wild statistical aberration, which can not be explained by asking leading questions about Liawatha (I'm from MA), nor can it be explained even if they were using as much as a D+10 Model. The question is about early ballots cast D76 to R24 vs your reports of early ballot request partisan breakdown.

"The key finding on this poll may be how the early voters are breaking out. 19% of people say they've already cast their ballots and they report having voted for Obama by a 76-24 margin. "

See what I'm getting at? Nothing to do with the questions asked during the polling, and too great a statistical anomaly vs your numbers re: partisan breakdown of early ballot requests. That's what I'm trying to reconcile.

40 posted on 10/13/2012 7:21:04 PM PDT by HannibalHamlinJr
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To: LS

If you look at internals they have Obama getting 11% of Repubs. And Romney only getting 5% of Dems.

However, in the last 3 presidential elections (even in 2008) the Dem never pulled more from GOP base. It was always GOP winning over Dems. (according to Jay Cost)

Yet after 4 years of Obamanomics we are to believe Obama will beat Romney 2-1 in pulling from base?

IMO, that is the skew.

If base vote were same (90-10), which most every national poll shows, Romney would be tied.


41 posted on 10/13/2012 7:21:29 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

Are they trying to tell us that nothing has changed in Ohio with the polling since the First debate of Romney/Obama and now the VP debate too?

I think they must be having push polls.


42 posted on 10/13/2012 7:27:40 PM PDT by Gumdrop
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To: nhwingut

For ppp to get Obama such strong base support (not matched in other Ohio polls) they had to poll a lot in Cleveland and Columbus.


43 posted on 10/13/2012 7:28:52 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: Heff

Anyone who believes or gets nervous about a PPP poll really needs to be locked up in an insane asylum. The are unadulterated scam artists completely in the business in trying to fabricate momentum.

All other Ohio polls are trending in our favor. Zero is in big trouble.


44 posted on 10/13/2012 7:29:29 PM PDT by AdamBomb
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To: Colonel Kangaroo; Jaguarmike; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; ...

Important stuff here

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/08/21/one-more-reason-i-dont-blog-ppp-polls/


45 posted on 10/13/2012 7:29:51 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

Great, for the 220,374th time FR declares the election over.
Can we begin to at least try and use common sense when these silly polls come out?

THINK! What is PPP national vote? Is it tied, is Romney ahead? If so then it is impossible for Obama to be ahead five points in a state like Ohio. Is Obama under 50% nationally? If so he can’t possibly over 50% in a state like Ohio.

My poll, at least as accurate as PPP says Romney carries Ohio 52 to 47.


46 posted on 10/13/2012 7:31:27 PM PDT by Patrick1 (“Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.”)
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To: AdamBomb

http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/06/ppp-battleground-polls-skewed-in-favor.html

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/08/21/one-more-reason-i-dont-blog-ppp-polls/


47 posted on 10/13/2012 7:31:43 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Perdogg

Thank you :)


48 posted on 10/13/2012 7:31:47 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: Perdogg

Why does RCP even factor in PPP if they are that skewed an bias?!


49 posted on 10/13/2012 7:38:48 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: LS

I have no doubt it will tighten as we get closer with early voting. The goal is to just prevent the utter domination of 2008 in that regard by the Dems. I see no way they make up the difference unless no GOP do the in-person early voting later.


50 posted on 10/13/2012 7:40:23 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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