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Why Joe Walsh Might Win the 8th (IL Congressional Dist)
5 NBC Chicago ^ | Friday, Oct 12, 2012 | Edward McClelland

Posted on 10/13/2012 7:54:55 PM PDT by tricky_k_1972

Why Joe Walsh Might Win the 8th

Why Joe Walsh Might Win the 8th

It ispossible that Rep. Joe Walsh, Tea Party-Ill., will hold on to his seat.

A poll conducted this week by We Ask America has him leading challenger Tammy Duckworth, 47.8 percent to 45.1 percent. (The previous poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling in late September, had Duckworth ahead, 52-38.)

This is not supposed to happen. House Speaker Michael Madigan drew this seat not just for a Democrat, but specifically for Duckworth. One of the reasons Duckworth lost to Peter Roskam in 2006 was that she didn't live in the district, and was unwilling to move, because her house had been modified to accommodate her disability. The house is in the new 8th District. After that defeat, Gov. Rod Blagojevich and President Obama helped her build a resume. Blagojevich appointed Duckworth head of the Illinois Department of Veterans Affairs. Obama named her Assistant Secretary for Veterans Affairs.

With the help of her mentors, Sen. Dick Durbin and Rep. Rahm Emanuel, Duckworth has raised five times as much money as Walsh. Walsh also helped Duckworth raise money by saying she wasn't a “true hero” because she bragged about her military service. Duckworth was given a prime-time speaking spot at the Democratic National Convention, where delegates were in tears as she talked her rescue from the wreckage of a Black Hawk helicopter.

So how can Duckworth possibly lose? Well, maybe for all of the above reasons. Walsh’s party wants nothing to do with him. The congressman skipped the Republican National Convention, and the National Republican Campaign Committee announced in September it would stop buying TV ads for him. But that lack of support has played into Walsh’s argument that he’s an independent, while Duckworth is a partisan D.C. Democrat. Even though he’s the insider, he’s running as the outsider. Walsh has declared that he’s a Tea Partier before he’s a Republican. In their first debate, he came off as fiscally responsible, while she looked like an advocate for liberal special interests. Because he has no support from national Republicans, Walsh has done all his campaigning inside the district, while Duckworth flew to Charlotte and made a speech at a college in California. In a congressional election, face-to-face campaigning can be everything.

Duckworth’s numbers may also have been hurt by President Obama’s lousy debate performance. It turned independents toward Romney, and the suburbs are full of independents.

Walsh is a shameless, sexist, racist, creedist, colorist, national originist political bully who will do and say anything to win. He poked Duckworth during their sit-down debate and criticized her for spending too much time picking out a dress to wear to the convention. (Those gals take forever to get dressed. Huh, huh, huh.) Maybe Duckworth needs to stop campaigning as the reasonable, responsible candidate, and start calling Walsh a deadbeat dad. You know what happens to politicians who’ll do anything to win? They win. And do you know what happens to two-time political losers? They never run again.       
 


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Illinois
KEYWORDS:
The kinder gentler Progressive, "Walsh is a shameless, sexist, racist, creedist, colorist, national originist political bully who will do and say anything to win." How do You really feel?

So what's the deal, why so pissed, "House Speaker Michael Madigan drew this seat not just for a Democrat, but specifically for Duckworth."

So you redistrict the state, and make a seat just for her, an injured vet, in the burbs of Chicago, IL, against a Tea party candidate, and SHE STILL CAN'T WIN, perfect!

1 posted on 10/13/2012 7:54:59 PM PDT by tricky_k_1972
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To: tricky_k_1972; Impy; Clintonfatigued; PhilCollins; BlackElk; BillyBoy; Dr. Sivana

Eddie sounds like a whiny, leftist bitch.


2 posted on 10/13/2012 8:00:29 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
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To: tricky_k_1972

Approves.

3 posted on 10/13/2012 8:03:51 PM PDT by Eccl 10:2 (Prov 3:5 --- "Trust in the Lord with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding")
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To: tricky_k_1972; Impy; Clintonfatigued; AuH2ORepublican
>> And do you know what happens to two-time political losers? They never run again. <<

I wish this were true, but if their name is John Cox, Steve Lonegan, John Raese (and on the Dem side, Myrth York & Dan Seals), they become three, four, and five-time losers because they can't take the hint after multiple defeats in a row that voters don't like them.

Regarding IL-8, my track record for predictions has been terrible there (I said there was no way Crane would lose in 2004, and said Walsh had no chance against Bean in 2010), so I'm not going to make any predictions on the race this time. I do think there's a SLIGHT chance Walsh could win it again though, and it would be hilarious if Duckworth STILL lost running in a now Dem-majority district, custom-made for her.

4 posted on 10/13/2012 8:05:36 PM PDT by BillyBoy ( Impeach Obama? Yes We Can!)
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To: tricky_k_1972

Go, Joe!


5 posted on 10/13/2012 8:06:54 PM PDT by Southside_Chicago_Republican (If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear.)
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To: tricky_k_1972

Life’s been good

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXWvKDSwvls


6 posted on 10/13/2012 8:08:04 PM PDT by Lurkina.n.Learnin (Ignorance is bliss- I'm stoked)
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To: tricky_k_1972

Apparently this is the wrong Joe Walsh I was thinking off...


7 posted on 10/13/2012 8:11:50 PM PDT by ObozoMustGo2012
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To: BillyBoy

Newt Gingrich lost in 74 and 76 to Jack Flynt and then Flynt retired in 78.


8 posted on 10/13/2012 8:13:41 PM PDT by SMGFan (SMGfan is not "Sub Machine Gun" fan)
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To: tricky_k_1972

Democratic dreams of big wins in Illinois fading.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/10/13/democratic-dreams-of-big-wins-in-illinois-fading.html


9 posted on 10/13/2012 8:14:22 PM PDT by Atlantan
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To: Atlantan

Yep, I was reading that, did a little more searching around and found this article. I thought it was so over the top that it was actually funny, or sad, take your pick.


10 posted on 10/13/2012 8:16:45 PM PDT by tricky_k_1972 (Putting on Tinfoil hat and heading for the bomb shelter.)
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To: tricky_k_1972
I know Joe and have worked in both his campaigns. He is a great Tea Party Conservative. He is a perfect example of what Rush states periodically- when a candidate sticks to pure conservative principles, he will win, no matter how progressive the district is. Joe knows how to articulate Conservative positions.
11 posted on 10/13/2012 9:07:25 PM PDT by libertymaker
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To: libertymaker

I live in the 10th can’t wait to vote for him


12 posted on 10/13/2012 9:25:09 PM PDT by lookout88 (.combat officer's dad)
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To: libertymaker

I live in the 10th can’t wait to vote for him!’pmp


13 posted on 10/13/2012 9:27:14 PM PDT by lookout88 (.combat officer's dad)
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To: lookout88

If you live in the 10th, how can you vote for Walsh, who’s running in the 8th?


14 posted on 10/13/2012 9:31:39 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: tricky_k_1972

Funk #49....!!


15 posted on 10/13/2012 9:33:49 PM PDT by Victor (If an expert says it can't be done, get another expert." -David Ben-Gurion, the first Prime Minister)
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To: AuH2ORepublican

Well, it is Chicago. Although to truly be able to vote the maximum number of times I think you have to be dead.


16 posted on 10/13/2012 10:06:22 PM PDT by tricky_k_1972 (Putting on Tinfoil hat and heading for the bomb shelter.)
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To: SMGFan
>> Newt Gingrich lost in 74 and 76 to Jack Flynt and then Flynt retired in 78. <<

Yes, he did come closer than any other Republican had in that historically Democrat seat, but still came up short twice. He had the fortune of not having to run against an incumbent the third time, and after being elected to the open seat, the district was redrawn to be Republican. I discussed this with Newt's supporters during the 2012 GOP primary when they were claiming Newt's history of winning elective office as soooo much more impressive than Rick Santorum's. Actually, their record of running for elective office is about even.

17 posted on 10/14/2012 12:10:26 AM PDT by BillyBoy ( Impeach Obama? Yes We Can!)
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To: fieldmarshaldj; BlackElk; BillyBoy; Dr. Sivana

Rep. Walsh will easily win. All of the voters, in the new 8th Dist., have a republican congressman, Walsh, Dold, Roskam, or Hultgren. The majority of those voters have a republican state senator, Pankau, Murphy, or Dillard.


18 posted on 10/14/2012 5:05:28 AM PDT by PhilCollins
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To: AuH2ORepublican

Some people, who live in the current 10th Dist., will live in the new 8th Dist.


19 posted on 10/14/2012 5:06:54 AM PDT by PhilCollins
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To: AuH2ORepublican

Yeah, I own a house in the 8th too.


20 posted on 10/14/2012 7:21:34 AM PDT by lookout88 (.combat officer's dad)
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To: BillyBoy

Frank Wolf, the wonderful guy who has now served 16 terms in the House, lost in 1976 and 1978 before being swept into office in 1980, beating out incumbent “Pink Joe” Fisher. I was a precinct captain in Arlington, which at that time was part of Virginia’s 10th District, Frank’s district.

I can think of a couple of Democrats who were “third time lucky”, both in the South Bend, Indiana area. John Brademas took three elections to finally win (in the ‘Rat year of 1958) and Joe Donnelly took three elections before he finally knocked off “Count Chocula” Chris Chocola in the ‘Rat year of 2006.


21 posted on 10/14/2012 9:03:06 AM PDT by nd76
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To: nd76; BillyBoy; Impy; AuH2ORepublican; Clintonfatigued
Democrat Collin Peterson in MN ran four times (1984/86/88/90) before he finally beat the GOP incumbent (though he was the nominee three times -- the DFL thought he was a has-been on his 3rd run in '88 and defeated him in the primary. Ditto Ted Strickland in OH, who was a perennial candidate by 1992 (having lost in 1976, 1978 and 1980). He was technically a "fluke" winner in '92 because of an ugly internecine battle between two GOP incumbents when their districts were merged (and he lost again in 1994, only to narrowly come back in 1996 and go on to win the Governorship). So there are many examples of candidates who perennial try for office. Most don't win, of course, but some manage to.
22 posted on 10/14/2012 10:02:54 AM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
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To: fieldmarshaldj; nd76; Impy; AuH2ORepublican; Clintonfatigued; PhilCollins; BlackElk; Dr. Sivana
>> Frank Wolf, the wonderful guy who has now served 16 terms in the House, lost in 1976 and 1978 before being swept into office in 1980, beating out incumbent “Pink Joe” Fisher. I was a precinct captain in Arlington, which at that time was part of Virginia’s 10th District, Frank’s district. <<
>> there are many examples of candidates who perennial try for office. Most don't win, of course, but some manage to.
<<

I think Joe Walsh himself was a "third time's the charm" guy when he won in 2010 after losing two previous races (it was for different offices though). He also had run as a more "moderate" Republican in his past campaigns. Many of us backed Maria Rodriquez over Walsh in the primary for that reason. I must admit he's FAR exceeded my expectations though.

>> I can think of a couple of Democrats who were “third time lucky”, both in the South Bend, Indiana area. John Brademas took three elections to finally win (in the ‘Rat year of 1958) and Joe Donnelly took three elections before he finally knocked off “Count Chocula” Chris Chocola in the ‘Rat year of 2006. <<
>>> Democrat Collin Peterson in MN ran four times (1984/86/88/90) before he finally beat the GOP incumbent (though he was the nominee three times -- the DFL thought he was a has-been on his 3rd run in '88 and defeated him in the primary. Ditto Ted Strickland in OH, who was a perennial candidate by 1992 (having lost in 1976, 1978 and 1980). He was technically a "fluke" winner in '92 because of an ugly internecine battle between two GOP incumbents when their districts were merged (and he lost again in 1994, only to narrowly come back in 1996 and go on to win the Governorship).
<<

::shudders:: You guys are giving me nightmares that we'll NEVER be rid of Ducky, even if she is loses again in a now RAT majority district. Rahm might run her for some SUPER moonbat district and give his hand-picked sock puppet the nomination for Schakowsky's district after she retires (Ducky CAN'T lose that district... can she?)

One RAT I wish would run a fourth time is Obama wannabe Dan Seals. The only reason he was "competitive" in Kirk's district in the first place was the big Dem turnout in 2006 and 2008. The RATs need to run this douchebag loser for some statewide office so the pathetic IL GOP will win it even if they have a lousy candidate.

>> Rep. Walsh will easily win. All of the voters, in the new 8th Dist., have a republican congressman, Walsh, Dold, Roskam, or Hultgren. The majority of those voters have a republican state senator, Pankau, Murphy, or Dillard. <<

Interesting. I read somewhere that the overall voting pattern of the new 8th is about 52% Democrat, strange that they managed to cobble it together from existing pieces of other GOP districts. They must have taken the Democrat areas, since I read the new IL-6, Roskam's district, is now super Republican (the RATs claim they're going to win it anyway) I would have assumed the RATs "borrowed" neighborhoods from safe RAT districts and gave a big chunk of Quigley's Chicago machine constituents to Walsh's district or something.

23 posted on 10/14/2012 11:37:08 AM PDT by BillyBoy ( Impeach Obama? Yes We Can!)
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To: nd76

Joe D did not face Chocola in 2002, only 2004 and 2006. In 02’ Choc faced former rat Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson for the open seat being vacated by Tim Roemer. Chocola himself had lost to Roemer in 2000.

Let’s not talk about Hill and Sodrel. Indiana seems to have a thing for rematches.


24 posted on 10/17/2012 2:22:25 PM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: Impy

Whatever happened to Baron Hill?

Sure don’t miss his snarky face on campaign adverts.


25 posted on 10/17/2012 2:24:12 PM PDT by nascarnation (Defeat Baraq 2012. Deport Baraq 2013)
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To: PhilCollins; BlackElk; BillyBoy; Dr. Sivana; lookout88; fieldmarshaldj; nd76; scrabblehack; ...

Phil you are the only person I know of who thinks Walsh will win “easily”. The guy is damaged, being outspent, and barley won in first place in a better district.

I hope one of those state Senators not named Dillard runs against Suckworth in 2014 when she will probably be the most vulnerable freshman rats.

The slight saving Grace here is the seat is still GOP-leaning but with a rat trend.

Using close enough estimation we can get the real partisan lean of these new IL seats tossing out the absurdly large Obama victories.

IL-8 would be 51% Bush in 2004.

IL-10 (Dold) just 45% Bush, as has been mentioned

IL-11 (Biggert) 47%

IL-17 (Schilling) Just 44%

Biggert has the best chance to win out of the 4.

I hope I’m wrong and you are right.

Talk of these retreads winning has me worried about the IL-13th’s rat David Gill. IL 13th Comfortable 53% Bush estimate.

Different estimates from some democrat on the Dave Leip board http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=158333.0

They have the 8th 50-48 Kerry, and the 13th 50-47 Bush.

With new GOP territory the third CD is tantalizing (or would be against a moonbat dem not Lipinscki) but likely ought of reach thanks to the CHI machine.


26 posted on 10/17/2012 2:47:50 PM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: tricky_k_1972

I’d love to see Rahm’s sock puppet lose.


27 posted on 10/17/2012 3:25:28 PM PDT by Darren McCarty (Holding my nose one more time to get rid of Eric Holder)
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To: nascarnation

He’s a lobbyist now like most ex-Congressman.


28 posted on 10/17/2012 3:35:54 PM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: Impy

Thanks.

And here he is, just for old times’ sake

http://www.apcoworldwide.com/content/sectors/KeyStaff.aspx?sector=financial&ksid=02e2e7d9-132f-4af6-8d83-1c1d437f8415


29 posted on 10/17/2012 3:38:44 PM PDT by nascarnation (Defeat Baraq 2012. Deport Baraq 2013)
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To: nascarnation

His firm’s #1 client BTW is COSCO, a shipping company owned by the Red Chinese government.


30 posted on 10/17/2012 3:38:47 PM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: Impy

I don’t think that Bush got more than 48% in 2004 in the redrawn IL-08. The old IL-08 gave Bush 56% in 2004 and gave McCain 43% in 2008, while the old IL-10 (a large part of which went into the new IL-08) gave the R 47% and 38%, respectively), so if we assume that the Bush 2004 percentage was 11% higher than the McCain 2008 percentage (11% is the average between the 13% and 9% drops in the R percentages in the IL-08 and IL-10), and given that the McCain 2008 percentage in the new IL-08 was 37%, then I estimate that the Bush 2004 percentage would have been 48% under the new lines. I hope I’m wrong and it’s closer to 50%, but even at 48% it would be an eminently winnable district for a good Republican candidate.


31 posted on 10/17/2012 5:24:26 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: Impy; EternalVigilance; fieldmarshaldj; PhilCollins; tricky_k_1972; Eccl 10:2; BillyBoy; ...
Call me an optimist. It would not surprise me if both Bobby Schilling and Walsh are victorious. Schilling's opponent has no presence on Rockford radio and no lawn signs that I have seen even though Madigan gave her most of the most Demonratic parts of Rockford to guarantee her victory. Schilling is actively campaigning and she is nowhere to be seen. It is certainly a district that looks Demonratic but no one expected Schilling to take out an incumbent Demonrat two years ago.

Walsh is the kind of notorious that wins. He beat M3elissa Bean by insisting on saying the Pledge of Allegiance to the absolute anger of a Plague of Women Vipers debate "moderator." That made Bean history. I suspect that he will dispatch Duckworth more easily since she is a second rate candidate for office who understands neither the words nor the music of politics.

I don't ike Dold but I would not bet on his defeat and, of course, the Demonrats have chosen a leftist loon to run against him.

Biggert is the kind of "moderate" "Republican" who is very hard to erase and will probably join cockroaches in inheriting the earth after we are nuked by Iran.

Republicans win the two downstate districts that are open seats.

Today's news reports are that Illinois registration is now closed and that 2012 registration is 7.5 % lower than in 2008. Since the Illinois is a totally comatose and incompetent subsidiary of the Chicago Demonrat Machine and is led by social revolutionaries and other manifest issue averse birdbrains, we can rely on that decrease being a substantial lack of Demonrat enthusiasm compared to 2008. Obozo will certainly win Illinois but his reduced margin guarantees Demonrat frustration on the Congressional races despite the best efforts of Boss Madigan and his minions ion Madiganistan.

Need I add that Monday's POTUS debate on foreign policy won't help the Demonrats either. Personally, I would not touch Romney or Obozo with someone else's ten foot pole but some realism is in order as to the fact that Obozo will have no coattails that are not negative coattails.

Tom Hoefling for POTUS!

32 posted on 10/18/2012 5:06:49 PM PDT by BlackElk (Dean of Discipline, Tomas de Torquemada Gentlemen's Society. Broil 'em now!!!)
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To: tricky_k_1972
And do you know what happens to two-time political losers? They never run again.

Not true here in the People's Socialist RepuliK of Illannoyed. They just run for the next higher office.

Here in IL, all our congressional districts were re-drawn after the 2010 elections thanks to the Democrats controlling the IL House *again.* They purposely re-drew 5 districts in an attempt to un-seat Republicans, to try and re-gain the 5 House seats the Democrats LOST in 2010.

In all but ONE of those re-drawn districts designed to un-seat the Republican incumbent, the Republican is WINNING.

Walsh is the only one in danger to losing, to two-time loser herself, Tammy Duckworth.

The problem with Tammy Duckworth is, she took a political job from now convicted felon Rod Blagojevich, and Duckworth is accused of mis-appropriating MILLIONS of taxpayer dollars while she held that position.

Hopefully Duckworth loses AGAIN.

33 posted on 10/18/2012 5:14:26 PM PDT by usconservative (When The Ballot Box No Longer Counts, The Ammunition Box Does. (What's In Your Ammo Box?))
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To: BlackElk; BillyBoy

I live in the current 8th Dist. and in the new 10th Dist. I think that Dold will easily win, since the majority of state legislators and county commissioners, in the new 10th Dist., are Republicans.

Is Tom a write-in candidate in Illinois?


34 posted on 10/18/2012 5:50:19 PM PDT by PhilCollins
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To: BlackElk

Walsh is telling people that businesses are going to cut jobs if Obama is elected......Excellent. It’s the truth. I’m going to help him Saturday morning in Schaumburg.


35 posted on 10/18/2012 6:54:46 PM PDT by lookout88 (.combat officer's dad)
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To: PhilCollins; EternalVigilance; BillyBoy

I have not voted yet so I am not sure. Someone gave me the impression that it was county by county as to whether enough signatures were filed but that seems senseless. I am pinging Tom to tell us his status here.


36 posted on 10/18/2012 9:41:04 PM PDT by BlackElk (Dean of Discipline, Tomas de Torquemada Gentlemen's Society. Broil 'em now!!!)
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To: BlackElk; Impy

That #32 should read that the Illinois *GOP* is comatose, etc.


37 posted on 10/18/2012 9:46:52 PM PDT by BlackElk (Dean of Discipline, Tomas de Torquemada Gentlemen's Society. Broil 'em now!!!)
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To: PhilCollins; BlackElk; BillyBoy

I filed as a write-in candidate in 110 jurisdictions in IL. Two had problems with mail delivery.

So, yes, I’m a registered candidate in 108 jurisdictions.

I’m sorry, but I don’t remember what the two bad filings were, and I don’t have them where I am this evening. If in doubt, you can check with your county.

By the way, we’re just finishing up all the filings across the country, and it looks like voters representing exactly 400 of the 538 electors will be able to vote for our ticket. That’s right at 75%.

I don’t think that’s too bad considering that it was an entirely grassroots effort.

FYI, my running mate is Jonathan Ellis of Tennessee. He filed in all jurisdictions as well. He’s a good man. You won’t find a more solid conservative in the land.


38 posted on 10/19/2012 9:12:34 PM PDT by EternalVigilance (The only wasted vote is one that doesn't represent you.)
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To: EternalVigilance

Have you endorsed any candidates in other Illinois races? I’m a write-in candidate, in the 7th Congressional Dist., where the incumbent is Rep. Danny Davis. I support cutting federal tax rates and federal spending. I’m pro-life, and I think that ICE should deport more illegal aliens.


39 posted on 10/20/2012 3:03:25 PM PDT by PhilCollins
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To: PhilCollins

Thanks for your willingness to be in the arena.

We need thousands of principled patriots to have the courage to do that in the years ahead.

Have you seen our Leadership Pledge?

http://www.selfgovernment.us/be-a-leader.html

Check it out, if would, please.

You can reach me at tomhoefling@gmail.com if you have any questions.

God bless and God speed.


40 posted on 10/21/2012 7:58:27 AM PDT by EternalVigilance (The only wasted vote is one that doesn't represent you.)
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To: EternalVigilance

No, haven’t read that pledge. I’ll read it today or tomorrow.


41 posted on 10/21/2012 10:54:06 AM PDT by PhilCollins
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To: PhilCollins

Thanks, Phil.


42 posted on 10/21/2012 10:59:37 AM PDT by EternalVigilance (The only wasted vote is one that doesn't represent you.)
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To: BlackElk; AuH2ORepublican; BillyBoy; fieldmarshaldj

Oh yay abortion “controversy” in the 8th.

A blowout loss would not surprise me unfortunately.

We never should have lost that seat in the first place, Phil Crane should have retired, and Bean would have lost reelection in 2006 and 2008 if those weren’t rat landslide years. Even under it’s new worse lines it should still elect a Republican. We need a grade A candidate for that sucker (not that RINO Dillard). Duckworthless is a piece of industrial waste.


43 posted on 10/21/2012 4:46:48 PM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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