Skip to comments.Obama grabs wide lead among those who have already voted: Reuters/Ipsos poll
Posted on 10/13/2012 10:51:11 PM PDT by Free ThinkerNY
(Reuters) - President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney are neck and neck in opinion polls, but there is one area in which the incumbent appears to have a big advantage: those who have already cast their ballots.
Obama leads Romney by 59 percent to 31 percent among early voters, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling data compiled in recent weeks.
The sample size of early voters is relatively small, but the Democrat's margin is still well above the poll's credibility interval - a measurement of polls' accuracy - of 10 percentage points. (full graphic: bit.ly/RmeEen)
With the November 6 election just more than three weeks away, 7 percent of those surveyed said they had already voted either in person or by mail (full graphic: bit.ly/SWm5YR).
The online poll is another sign that early voting is likely to play a bigger role this year than in 2008, when roughly one in three voters cast a ballot before Election Day. Voting is already under way in some form in at least 40 states.
(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...
Early voting is a liberal conduit for fraud.
I think somebody been hittin’ da happy smoke. This is the weirdest “election” BS I’ve seen so far.
George Gilder on Why Socialism Always Fails
The poll has a 90% credibility? That’s like a 5 or maybe 5.5 margin on error in normal circumstances. Not a healthy poll.
Oh relax. Early voting is a Republican invention - a convenience issue for people who have to work on Tuesdays (unlike libs).
States that have early voting: Utah, Idaho, Nebraska, Kansas
States that do not have early voting: Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York, Michigan.
As for fraud, fraud potential is greatest on election day -- when hordes of people show up all at once at thousands of polling places. When somebody votes in advance there's time to check a voter for fraud.
I learned in Poly Sci 101 back in the day that any margin of error above 5% is worthless.
“Early voting is a Republican invention”
Was very common in the 1800s for the similar reasons that you gave. An agrarian society, farmers infrequently came to town. Common to be able to vote for up a month prior to election day for this reason. In other words, the producers didn’t have the luxury of the moochers to vote on just one day.
These early vote numbers are starting to make me think we are watching this election being stolen before our very eyes.
10% MOE? Sample size is too small.
Yep, just went and looked at the data. They only have 361 early voters in their survey. That means that each voter moves the needle a quarter of a point.
So they found that:
213 people surveyed said they voted early and for Obama.
112 people surveyed said they voted early and for Romney.
36 people surveyed said they voted early and for someone else.
Not this is data culled from their entire survey of 11,000 registered voters.
What does this mean? Jack squat. It’s not a big enough sample to be taken seriously.
We are just waiting for the death rattle.
Is it even legal to report such things?
I thought the “exit polls” couldn’t be reported until all voting locations are closed.
There is no law against reporting anything you find from a survey. Exit poll reporting is perfectly legal, but pretty dirty because it influences people.
On the other hand, if the official tallys are released by someone then it’s big prison time.
Not quite. In the past, you were supposed to have an actual reason for absentee/early voting.
This headline is pure hyperbole even if true.
Obama has 59% of 7% of total voters, or 4.13% to Romney’s 31% of 7% or 2.17%. So the huge Obama lead is less than 2%.
If the results are true...
Our job is to get out the vote. Make sure O is defeated and elect as many conservatives to the house and senate as possible. OUR COUNTRY DEPENDS ON IT.
So 10% of early voters voted for Gary Johnson, Roseanne, or some other candidate? They were motivated enough to vote early for one of those turkeys. This poll is statistical horsemanure (but it does grab headlines and will get counted in the Really Crappy Polls average).
*213 people surveyed said they voted early and for Obama.
112 people surveyed said they voted early and for Romney.
36 people surveyed said they voted early and for someone else.*
61,000 are hidden in a trunk in Cleveland along with 130,000 dead Odungophones and 4 box lunches
Only land owners could vote! Moochers were not allowed course they usually died of starvation!
The online poll?????????
I didn’t even get my sample ballot in the mail until today.
Exactly. It's unnecessary to vote three weeks to a month out from election day. It's pure bullshit to help dems commit fraud where they need it. Maybe a week out from the election but more than that is ridiculous.
Thanks for the clarification.
I didn’t read the article closely and thought they were releasing the actual results of early voting.
(Pay attention, berdie, pay attention, lol)
The only thing is the same was reported in 2008 and we did lose. Ugh. I guess the MSM had to find some great angle to fluff up Obama’s sagging poll numbers!
We’ve known all along this is how it gets done, early voting. Chicago style.
Republicans don’t even approach the idea of stopping it, but instead just use it to gripe, moan and groan.
The only possible purpose for early voting to endlessly string out for days is to advance fraud. Convenience being the reason is a crock that union states must die laughing when they hear it.
We prefer convenience and exceptions now over the Republic.
with Rooters, anything is possible
Pollster calls up, what’s the easy way out, say I already voted. Like saying to the charity, I gave at the office. It’s a BS answer.
Here in NV we received a mailer today from the GOP to apply for absentee voting. My husband tossed it in the Trash and I took it out and said, don’t throw that out, or we might find on election day, that we have already voted! I also filled them out in case something happens to either of us in the next week, we will get our absentee to vote..Morbid I know!
yea... no ‘irregularities’ here
each person just fills out a stack of 20 ‘absentee’ ballots...
The article states it was an “on-line” poll....nothing to see here - really, absolutely nothing to see here!
Rasmussen found Romney ahead in early voters in Ohio 52/48.
I`m trying to figure out something here.. if someone votes early, what safeguards are in place to stop them from voting again?
If none, we`re screwed by a system that is no better than Venezuela`s, and this whole election is a wasted exercise.
Key words in article: “on-line poll”
...”These early vote numbers are starting to make me think we are watching this election being stolen before our very eyes”...
Do the Democrats go door to door and fill out the forms for people who do not understand what is going on? Or, do people decide on their own to vote, and therefore, ask for the forms? If the former is going on, then it is likely the election has already been stolen. No country can survive the corruption and bullying which is the norm on the left now. I was in the airport yesterday and four Army soldiers came into the baggage area, three guys and a girl. They were together. As I looked at them and wondered where they were headed, I choked up, knowing what has just happened in Libia and how our government seems to be lying and nonchalant about the American lives at stake over there. On the verge of tears, I walked over and told them how much I appreciate them, that we depend on them now in so many ways to keep our country safe and that we support and pray for them all the time. They were so sweet and appreciate in their response to me and the one left as I was leaving threw me a big smile and wished me a good day. Please pray for our military..Speaking of voting..I hear that some in our military have deliberately been kept from casting their vote. They should be the first to vote in any election..Incredible!
Reuters thinks an online poll is "news"?
JUST WHEN YOU THOUGHT YOU'D SEEN IT ALL!!!!!
I mean seriously, I have to go to the article and post a comment that pretty much points at Miss Sulliven and LAUGHS and LAUGHS and LAUGHS.....
Unfortunately, they need to approve the comment. They won’t. LOL
Please post the link.
Because they said so or because vote results have been released?
Early voting is fraud just waiting to happen..
I don’t think I’d get terribly worked up over a sample with a margin of error of +/- 10%
I find this hard to believe.
Absentee ballots and early votes are not counted early are they? Because someone has registered as Democrat does not mean they voted for Obama. So how can it be said that Obama has more share of early votes?
If he saw a poll with a MOE of 10.0, he'd have classified it under Fantasy and Science Fiction, and he might have even indicated that you could take the exact opposite result to the bank. :)