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Obama grabs wide lead among those who have already voted: Reuters/Ipsos poll
Reuters ^ | Oct. 14, 2012 | Andy Sullivan

Posted on 10/13/2012 10:51:11 PM PDT by Free ThinkerNY

(Reuters) - President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney are neck and neck in opinion polls, but there is one area in which the incumbent appears to have a big advantage: those who have already cast their ballots.

Obama leads Romney by 59 percent to 31 percent among early voters, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling data compiled in recent weeks.

The sample size of early voters is relatively small, but the Democrat's margin is still well above the poll's credibility interval - a measurement of polls' accuracy - of 10 percentage points. (full graphic: bit.ly/RmeEen)

With the November 6 election just more than three weeks away, 7 percent of those surveyed said they had already voted either in person or by mail (full graphic: bit.ly/SWm5YR).

The online poll is another sign that early voting is likely to play a bigger role this year than in 2008, when roughly one in three voters cast a ballot before Election Day. Voting is already under way in some form in at least 40 states.

(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2012polls
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1 posted on 10/13/2012 10:51:23 PM PDT by Free ThinkerNY
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To: Free ThinkerNY

Early voting is a liberal conduit for fraud.


2 posted on 10/13/2012 10:52:36 PM PDT by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: Free ThinkerNY

I think somebody been hittin’ da happy smoke. This is the weirdest “election” BS I’ve seen so far.


3 posted on 10/13/2012 10:55:07 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Dude! Where's my Obama "foam"?)
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To: Free ThinkerNY

George Gilder on Why Socialism Always Fails

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SvWbjpcy9jI


4 posted on 10/13/2012 10:55:47 PM PDT by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited to include some fully orbed hyperbole..)
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To: Free ThinkerNY

The poll has a 90% credibility? That’s like a 5 or maybe 5.5 margin on error in normal circumstances. Not a healthy poll.


5 posted on 10/13/2012 10:56:20 PM PDT by Anitius Severinus Boethius (http://www.amazon.com/dp/B008BAL1OK/)
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To: Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
Early voting is a liberal conduit for fraud.

Oh relax. Early voting is a Republican invention - a convenience issue for people who have to work on Tuesdays (unlike libs).

States that have early voting: Utah, Idaho, Nebraska, Kansas

States that do not have early voting: Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York, Michigan.

As for fraud, fraud potential is greatest on election day -- when hordes of people show up all at once at thousands of polling places. When somebody votes in advance there's time to check a voter for fraud.

6 posted on 10/13/2012 10:59:18 PM PDT by Alter Kaker (Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
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To: Free ThinkerNY
The sample size of early voters is relatively small, but the Democrat's margin is still well above the poll's credibility interval - a measurement of polls' accuracy - of 10 percentage points.

I learned in Poly Sci 101 back in the day that any margin of error above 5% is worthless.

7 posted on 10/13/2012 11:00:53 PM PDT by Darren McCarty (Holding my nose one more time to get rid of Eric Holder)
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To: Alter Kaker

“Early voting is a Republican invention”

****

Was very common in the 1800s for the similar reasons that you gave. An agrarian society, farmers infrequently came to town. Common to be able to vote for up a month prior to election day for this reason. In other words, the producers didn’t have the luxury of the moochers to vote on just one day.


8 posted on 10/13/2012 11:02:25 PM PDT by peyton randolph (FUBO and his wookie beard)
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To: Free ThinkerNY

These early vote numbers are starting to make me think we are watching this election being stolen before our very eyes.


9 posted on 10/13/2012 11:02:49 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: Anitius Severinus Boethius

10% MOE? Sample size is too small.


10 posted on 10/13/2012 11:03:00 PM PDT by NYRepublican72
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To: Free ThinkerNY

Yep, just went and looked at the data. They only have 361 early voters in their survey. That means that each voter moves the needle a quarter of a point.

So they found that:

213 people surveyed said they voted early and for Obama.
112 people surveyed said they voted early and for Romney.
36 people surveyed said they voted early and for someone else.

Not this is data culled from their entire survey of 11,000 registered voters.

What does this mean? Jack squat. It’s not a big enough sample to be taken seriously.


11 posted on 10/13/2012 11:05:54 PM PDT by Anitius Severinus Boethius (http://www.amazon.com/dp/B008BAL1OK/)
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To: Free ThinkerNY
Progressivism-Communism-Liberalism-Marxism-Obamism ad nauseum are all on life support.

We are just waiting for the death rattle.

12 posted on 10/13/2012 11:08:27 PM PDT by Slyfox
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To: Anitius Severinus Boethius

Is it even legal to report such things?

I thought the “exit polls” couldn’t be reported until all voting locations are closed.


13 posted on 10/13/2012 11:10:41 PM PDT by berdie
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To: berdie

There is no law against reporting anything you find from a survey. Exit poll reporting is perfectly legal, but pretty dirty because it influences people.

On the other hand, if the official tallys are released by someone then it’s big prison time.


14 posted on 10/13/2012 11:12:45 PM PDT by Anitius Severinus Boethius (http://www.amazon.com/dp/B008BAL1OK/)
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To: Alter Kaker

Not quite. In the past, you were supposed to have an actual reason for absentee/early voting.


15 posted on 10/13/2012 11:18:16 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Free ThinkerNY

This headline is pure hyperbole even if true.

Obama has 59% of 7% of total voters, or 4.13% to Romney’s 31% of 7% or 2.17%. So the huge Obama lead is less than 2%.

If the results are true...


16 posted on 10/13/2012 11:22:30 PM PDT by lowteksh
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To: Free ThinkerNY

meaningless crap...

Our job is to get out the vote. Make sure O is defeated and elect as many conservatives to the house and senate as possible. OUR COUNTRY DEPENDS ON IT.


17 posted on 10/13/2012 11:23:55 PM PDT by Nifster
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To: Free ThinkerNY

So 10% of early voters voted for Gary Johnson, Roseanne, or some other candidate? They were motivated enough to vote early for one of those turkeys. This poll is statistical horsemanure (but it does grab headlines and will get counted in the Really Crappy Polls average).


18 posted on 10/13/2012 11:27:16 PM PDT by rfp1234
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To: Anitius Severinus Boethius

*213 people surveyed said they voted early and for Obama.
112 people surveyed said they voted early and for Romney.
36 people surveyed said they voted early and for someone else.*

61,000 are hidden in a trunk in Cleveland along with 130,000 dead Odungophones and 4 box lunches


19 posted on 10/13/2012 11:28:09 PM PDT by Doogle ((USAF.68-73..8th TFW Ubon Thailand..never store a threat you should have eliminated))
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To: peyton randolph

Only land owners could vote! Moochers were not allowed course they usually died of starvation!


20 posted on 10/13/2012 11:29:57 PM PDT by tallyhoe
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To: Doogle

The online poll?????????


21 posted on 10/13/2012 11:30:27 PM PDT by stocksthatgoup (ZERO DARK THIRTY (coming soon to an embassy near you))
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To: Free ThinkerNY

I didn’t even get my sample ballot in the mail until today.


22 posted on 10/13/2012 11:34:50 PM PDT by funfan
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To: Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
Early voting is a liberal conduit for fraud.

/
/

Exactly. It's unnecessary to vote three weeks to a month out from election day. It's pure bullshit to help dems commit fraud where they need it. Maybe a week out from the election but more than that is ridiculous.

23 posted on 10/13/2012 11:35:00 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: Anitius Severinus Boethius

Thanks for the clarification.

I didn’t read the article closely and thought they were releasing the actual results of early voting.

(Pay attention, berdie, pay attention, lol)


24 posted on 10/13/2012 11:39:12 PM PDT by berdie
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To: rfp1234

The only thing is the same was reported in 2008 and we did lose. Ugh. I guess the MSM had to find some great angle to fluff up Obama’s sagging poll numbers!


25 posted on 10/13/2012 11:41:16 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America

We’ve known all along this is how it gets done, early voting. Chicago style.

Republicans don’t even approach the idea of stopping it, but instead just use it to gripe, moan and groan.

The only possible purpose for early voting to endlessly string out for days is to advance fraud. Convenience being the reason is a crock that union states must die laughing when they hear it.

We prefer convenience and exceptions now over the Republic.


26 posted on 10/13/2012 11:42:07 PM PDT by RitaOK ( VIVA CHRISTO REY)
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To: stocksthatgoup

with Rooters, anything is possible


27 posted on 10/13/2012 11:46:10 PM PDT by Doogle ((USAF.68-73..8th TFW Ubon Thailand..never store a threat you should have eliminated))
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To: Free ThinkerNY

Cheating.


28 posted on 10/14/2012 12:13:22 AM PDT by freekitty (Give me back my conservative vote; then find me a real conservative to vote for)
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To: Free ThinkerNY
Obama has a huge lead in those who vote multiple times, dead people, felons and illegal aliens.



29 posted on 10/14/2012 1:34:45 AM PDT by Bon mots (Abu Ghraib: 47 Times on the front page of the NY Times | Benghazi: 2 Times)
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To: Free ThinkerNY

Pollster calls up, what’s the easy way out, say I already voted. Like saying to the charity, I gave at the office. It’s a BS answer.


30 posted on 10/14/2012 1:38:32 AM PDT by Quick Shot
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To: Quick Shot

Here in NV we received a mailer today from the GOP to apply for absentee voting. My husband tossed it in the Trash and I took it out and said, don’t throw that out, or we might find on election day, that we have already voted! I also filled them out in case something happens to either of us in the next week, we will get our absentee to vote..Morbid I know!


31 posted on 10/14/2012 1:47:42 AM PDT by Repub4bush (GOPBRIEFINGROOM.COM the pragmatic site for discussion! We love FR but not the nutcases!)
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To: Free ThinkerNY

early ‘voting’

yea... no ‘irregularities’ here

each person just fills out a stack of 20 ‘absentee’ ballots...


32 posted on 10/14/2012 2:59:16 AM PDT by sten (fighting tyranny never goes out of style)
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To: stocksthatgoup

The article states it was an “on-line” poll....nothing to see here - really, absolutely nothing to see here!


33 posted on 10/14/2012 3:12:24 AM PDT by RightGuy
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To: Free ThinkerNY

Rasmussen found Romney ahead in early voters in Ohio 52/48.


34 posted on 10/14/2012 3:16:32 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: Free ThinkerNY

I`m trying to figure out something here.. if someone votes early, what safeguards are in place to stop them from voting again?

If none, we`re screwed by a system that is no better than Venezuela`s, and this whole election is a wasted exercise.


35 posted on 10/14/2012 3:36:22 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Record high turnout is our hope for sending 0bama home. Pray hard!!!)
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To: Free ThinkerNY

Key words in article: “on-line poll”


36 posted on 10/14/2012 4:05:28 AM PDT by CTGOPPER (Conservative in Connecticut. Really.)
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To: Free ThinkerNY

http://www.varight.com/news/exposed-reutersipsos-poll-over-samples-dems-by-13-and-lies-about-percentage/

nuff sed!


37 posted on 10/14/2012 4:22:32 AM PDT by ronnie raygun (bb)
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To: comebacknewt

...”These early vote numbers are starting to make me think we are watching this election being stolen before our very eyes”...

Do the Democrats go door to door and fill out the forms for people who do not understand what is going on? Or, do people decide on their own to vote, and therefore, ask for the forms? If the former is going on, then it is likely the election has already been stolen. No country can survive the corruption and bullying which is the norm on the left now. I was in the airport yesterday and four Army soldiers came into the baggage area, three guys and a girl. They were together. As I looked at them and wondered where they were headed, I choked up, knowing what has just happened in Libia and how our government seems to be lying and nonchalant about the American lives at stake over there. On the verge of tears, I walked over and told them how much I appreciate them, that we depend on them now in so many ways to keep our country safe and that we support and pray for them all the time. They were so sweet and appreciate in their response to me and the one left as I was leaving threw me a big smile and wished me a good day. Please pray for our military..Speaking of voting..I hear that some in our military have deliberately been kept from casting their vote. They should be the first to vote in any election..Incredible!


38 posted on 10/14/2012 5:07:37 AM PDT by jazzlite (esat)
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To: Free ThinkerNY
The online poll is another sign...

Reuters thinks an online poll is "news"?

39 posted on 10/14/2012 5:48:59 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: Free ThinkerNY
The sample size of early voters is relatively small, but the Democrat's margin is still well above the poll's credibility interval - a measurement of polls' accuracy - of 10 percentage points.

+- 10%!!!!

JUST WHEN YOU THOUGHT YOU'D SEEN IT ALL!!!!!

BWAAAHAHAHAH
HAHAHHHAHAH
HAHAHHAHHHAH
!!!!!!!!


40 posted on 10/14/2012 5:55:01 AM PDT by Lazamataz (WAAAAAAAAAHHHhhhhh.....)
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To: Free ThinkerNY

I mean seriously, I have to go to the article and post a comment that pretty much points at Miss Sulliven and LAUGHS and LAUGHS and LAUGHS.....


41 posted on 10/14/2012 5:57:14 AM PDT by Lazamataz (WAAAAAAAAAHHHhhhhh.....)
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To: Free ThinkerNY

Unfortunately, they need to approve the comment. They won’t. LOL


42 posted on 10/14/2012 6:01:42 AM PDT by Lazamataz (WAAAAAAAAAHHHhhhhh.....)
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To: jmaroneps37

Please post the link.


43 posted on 10/14/2012 6:32:26 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Alter Kaker
I don't give a “rats tail” whose bright idea it was to allow so called “early voting”, IT IS WRONG AND SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED, EXCEPT for hardship , unavoidable reasons, such as illness....otherwise people, get off your lazy duffs and go vote on one designated day....PERIOD. This voting thing has gotten ridiculous in this country...a invitation for the political thugs to make their way out of the political slime and tamper with the outcome of our voting....think about it...and ask yourselves...what does this say about a lot of the perspective LEGAL voters in this country?? That you are too damned lazy to get out and go VOTE on a designated day. It has gotten so bad, that there are those who not only vote early, but who want the drive thru voting, so they don't have to get out of their car....and why are we NOT OUTRAGED at these acts that make it so darned easy to manipulate the votes.
I wonder if there was some regret by those who rushed out to vote right ahead of the Lybia fiasco. Hey, how do you like being lied to by the Administration.....do you have any early voter regret??? Will you even allow yourself to go there in your mind???
44 posted on 10/14/2012 6:41:45 AM PDT by Molly T. (Has the gang in Washington crossed your "line in the sand"yet??)
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To: Free ThinkerNY
Obama leads Romney by 59 percent to 31 percent among early voters,

Because they said so or because vote results have been released?

Early voting is fraud just waiting to happen..

45 posted on 10/14/2012 7:20:50 AM PDT by hattend (Firearms and ammunition...the only growing industries under the Obama regime.)
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To: Free ThinkerNY

I don’t think I’d get terribly worked up over a sample with a margin of error of +/- 10%


46 posted on 10/14/2012 7:26:13 AM PDT by BfloGuy (Teach a man to fish and you lose a Democratic voter.)
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To: Free ThinkerNY

I find this hard to believe.


47 posted on 10/14/2012 7:43:50 AM PDT by CPT Clay (Follow me on Twitter @Clay N TX)
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To: Free ThinkerNY

Absentee ballots and early votes are not counted early are they? Because someone has registered as Democrat does not mean they voted for Obama. So how can it be said that Obama has more share of early votes?


48 posted on 10/14/2012 7:48:46 AM PDT by nclaurel
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To: BfloGuy
Funny thing is, my Statistics prof in college was teaching about polls, and he told us that there was a logarithmic relationship between polling veracity and the MOE (margin of error). He showed us that the centerpoint was about 3%. Anything higher than 3.5 was likely propaganda, and when you made it to 4.0, you were pretty much in garbage territory. He said you seldom found anything lower than about 2.0, but if you did, take THAT poll to the bank -- providing sampling was done correctly.

If he saw a poll with a MOE of 10.0, he'd have classified it under Fantasy and Science Fiction, and he might have even indicated that you could take the exact opposite result to the bank. :)

49 posted on 10/14/2012 9:13:32 AM PDT by Lazamataz (WAAAAAAAAAHHHhhhhh.....)
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To: Free ThinkerNY

50 posted on 10/14/2012 10:12:03 AM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi)
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