Skip to comments.Romney isnít giving up on Pennsylvania
Posted on 10/14/2012 8:35:46 AM PDT by GonzoII
Amid rumors in Republican circles and on the Internet that the Romney campaign had decided to write off Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes as lost to President Barack Obama, the Republican candidates surge in polls last week made it clear they felt the Keystone State was in play.
Pennsylvania is a state which the Romney campaign believes presents a real opportunity for a Romney victory, Katie Packer Gage, Romneys deputy national campaign manager, told Human Events. If President Obama can’t win there, he can’t win at all. So we plan to fight hard there. We have seen evidence in recent days that the Romney/Ryan message is resonating in Pennsylvania and the voters there are moving our way. So we will continue to maintain a strong presence there in the form of victory centers, boots on the ground and an aggressive get out the vote program.
The rumors of a Romney exit from Pennsylvania, however, came in the same week as two polls conducted after the first presidential debate showed the contest a dead heat in the state. The Susquehanna Poll showed that among likely voters in the state, Barack Obama led Mitt Romney by a margin of only 47 to 45 percent, with 3 percent going to Libertarian Gary Johnson. These results were similar to those of a Sienna College Research Institute poll, showing Obama leading Romney 43 to 40 percent among likely voters in Pennsylvania and 17 percent undecided.
Regarding requests from local GOP activists for dates for further visits from Romney and running mate Paul Ryan, Gage said: As we get closer to Election Day we will evaluate to decide whether to schedule additional visits from the candidates or to devote additional resources there. But for now it remains a definite target for our campaign.
Party activists throughout the state confirmed that enthusiasm since the Oct. 3 Romney-Obama debate has been at all-time high and that this has translated into a strong infantry of volunteers.
Pennsylvania is in play — no question about it, former seven-term Rep. Phil English (R-Pa.) told us. The debate was certainly helpful but (Romneys rise) is also because our candidate is offering hope to the middle class-taxpayer here and an understanding of an important local issue — unfair play by China in trade.
As for what local business leaders in his own Erie County think when they hear the Obama administrations insistence that the U.S. is on the road to recovery, English said: They think these guys are from Mars.
English, who has walked precincts since his mother was state co-chairman of Richard Nixons re-election campaign in 1972, pointed out that our victory centers here are packed with volunteers and what is especially heartening is that so many of them are young people who are very concerned about their future. They feel so strongly about it they are working hard as volunteers for Gov. Romney and change.
The former congressman also said that at fairs in surrounding rural counties, there is a demand for Romney bumper stickers, buttons, and yardsigns. I hope our state headquarters gets the things the people want and doesnt spend everything on television.
Another former Republican House member, Melissa Hart of western Pennsylvania, told a similar story about the growing amount of Republican volunteers and enthusiasm for the GOP ticket in her part of the state.
We also have a strong Catholics-for-Romney group here, said Hart, noting that its volunteers are motivated by the pro-life issue and the administrations controversial mandate to Catholic hospitals regarding contraception.
The former congresswoman added that she had just finished a long drive through western Pennsylvania and “I saw something you don’t see often at election time – home after home with a Romney-Ryan yardsigns out front. Normally, people here have yardsigns for local and countywide candidates, but never for presidential candidates — not to the degree those signs are out there now.”
Based on the signs of activity she described, we asked Hart if she felt Romney was poised to carry Pennsylvania over Obama.
“Not yet,” she replied. “The grassroots work is outstanding, but the Romney campaign needs to have more of a presence on the airwaves. That’s what they need to finish the job.”
It has been 24 years since Pennsylvania gave its electoral votes to a Republican nominee for president. Given the closeness of the latest polls, the momentum could easily shift back to President Obama after the next two debates. But for now, Phil English is clearly on target when he says Pennsylvania is in play — no question about it.
If the GOP has more resources than the DNC, then pushing hard in PA forces the Dems to spend precious resources where they cannot afford to spend them.
If they want to keep the economic activity generated by the fracking activity, they better vote Romney. O will shut it down in a second term.
Hit the Pittsburgh market and you have lots of play in Ohio and other States.
Hit the Philly market and you have lots of play neighboring States, as well.
The midsection of PA is conservative.
Hitting the urban areas is not a “waste” of money, even if PA does not go for Romney.
Coal country is MAD and they should be.
Lots of “Reagan Democrat” crossover votes in the entire State.
I don’t know - this smells like a trap. It sure was in 2008. McCain/Palin thought they were contesting - but at the end of the day it wasn’t close and they spent a lot of unnecessary time there.
I traveled from mid west central PA to Erie last week. I saw the same indication from signs. Counted a dozen Romney/Ryan sign areas and 5 Obama signs (mostly in Erie). Added to the 12 Romney/Ryan signs were 42 more Fire Obama signs from Coal Country. Coal Country is mad at Obama and Rural PA will vote for Romney/Ryan. Heavily populated areas like Philadelphia will go for Obama. If you consider area only, PA is red 10 to 1.
R&R shouldn’t waste time and money in PA or MI (now +7 for the Marxist in Rasmussen). He need only lock down OH and either CO or NV. Continue to solidify FL and VA. Maybe Ryan can deliver WI, but that may be a greater challenge.
Totally disagree, he can take PA. I live here and I work daily to convert the lost and wandering O voters.
Pennsylvanians have to be active, post signs, work the polls, and above all fight fraud. That’s the #1 obstacle, fraud. Philly just hangs back til they see what they need then send the totals.
That stupid judge hurt us with the recent “you can but don’t have to ask for ID” crap. Again, I’d like to see signs or ads warning of voter fraud penalties. Also, absentee ballots should be thoroughly examined.
Intrade has PA as O-78.6 R-21.2
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Piss off, n00b
Good chance to make some cash. They're doing the same thing the pollsters are doing, basing predictions on 2008.
In 2010 we threw out a sitting (D) Rep, Patrick Murphy for the (R) Mike Fitzpatrick. We're not beyond saving.
Romney must move into PA markets this week.
Spend the dough, move the needle and force Obama to react.
DRAIN OBAMA DRY. He doesn’t have the bread to keep up anymore.
Sheesh. You advise a sensible route for Romney and you get your head taken off. Think of it this way, Romney only needs OH and either NV or CO. This pathway has a higher probability than trying to grab either PA or MI, states that are BLUE and only serve to tease the GOP. With 3 weeks to go Romney needs to focus his efforts on the higher probability pathway that leads to a win.
Intrade is a joke.
I'm sure the Benedictines for Peace are going to be pushing for Barack ("Kill List") Obama. But balance that against the fact that the big industrial unions are dead because Erie's whole rust-belt industrial base is dead.
I'll bet Erie goes for Romney.
What is it that those two did that you think R/R are incapable of doing ?
A bit of serious effort, a bit of extra motivation for those outside the corruption corners, and PA's 20 gets tallied where it belongs.
We're PAlabama here in the middle, and we're pissed !
It may be worth it to go for PA. Plus a lot of PA voters are quite prolife, and there are huge Church human services institutions --- significant in number and size ---which will be smashed if the HHS Anti-Cnscience Mandate isn't struck down. People should know about this.
Erie threw out Blue Dog Dem Kathy Dahlkemper, too.
I like your tsunami analogy. The wave is high when it hits because the ocean is deep but the shore is shallow.
That’s assuming Philly and Pitts don’t vote early and often. They didn’t in 2010. If they stay home, its possible Romney has a shot and Casey may lose his re-election bid.
We also have a strong Catholics-for-Romney group here, Pa is 53% Catholic.
If they got the resources and money to make a effort in PA then why not ?
I don’t know what the ad money situation is for R/R. If they need to be choosy, I say they need to concentrate on VA first — I know, everyone says OH.... I just don’t trust that NoVA won’t eff it up for the rest of the state. OH second, FL third. Anything leftover, they’ll need to determine the best of the best among CO, WI, & PA.
Just a humble FReeper opine.
I hope they can make a dent for Romney!
Are they are going to be able to strip away dems in counties such as Montgomery and Chester?
I can’t speak directly to the easter counties one by one, but I can say that Romney (like any republican) just needs to come out of Philly without getting completely swamped and if he can do that, he’ll win the state.
It is blindingly clear that Obama will NOT get the support ANYWHERE in the state he did in ‘08. So Romney should come out of Eastern PA with winning being possible.
If you got rid of the Philly region PA would be as reliably RED as any southern state. The problem is Philly absolutely swamps the system.. Philly has 1.5 MILLION people in it alone, not the metro area, that’s just the CITY. It represents over 10% of the overall state population.
The weakness of Obama in PA is one of the reasons I have been saying since day one, the notion that Ohio is in play is LUDICROUS! Ohio and PA are very very similar politically, the difference is Ohio doesn’t have a cancer that is part of the North East Libguard skewing its state. Cinci and Cleveland are NOWHERE near the size of Philly, they are more like a Pittsburgh, and while the urban centers of Ohio will continue to go dem, most likely they won’t carry them by huge margins, and INDIES and LOTS OF DEMOCRATS have kiss this idiot GoodBye.
Obama has never had a chance in ANY rust belt state where a insanely large city cannot swamp the vote. Which is why, Obama will lose, IA, IN, OH and WI. MI and PA are the battleground here, because the support OBama enjoyed in those supercities is way way down, and idies have abandoned him. So IL is probably safe for him thanks to Chicago, and MN is probably safe because frankly the state has always been more socialist than any of its neighbors.
MI and PA are the battleground folks, and both I believe can be won. Will they be? Who knows, but I do know that Romney does have a ground game in PA that has been more effective (at least by their own reports) than McCain ever was. I don’t know what Romney is doing with PA, but I can say I have suddenly seen a LOT more political signs in the last week or two almost all Romney.. though I don’t put huge faith in yard sign as a tell these days, but I haven’t seen really any political ads from either side here lately... That leads me to assume the R/R campaign have conceded the state. I have seen some PACs and things running ads, but even that hasn’t been much.
So if they are fighting for PA I’m glad to hear it, but until I see an ad buy, I am going to remain dubious to the reports.