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Gallup: R 49%, 0 47%
Gallup ^

Posted on 10/14/2012 11:07:03 AM PDT by Arthurio

Gallup: R 49%, 0 47%

(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; gallup
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No change from yesterday among likely voters, but a 1 point Romney gain among registered voters.

Keep in mind again that this is a 7 day poll. That means that Romney's two biggest post debate polling nights (the Friday and Saturday following the Wednesday debate) have now rolled off Gallup's 7 day average.

1 posted on 10/14/2012 11:07:08 AM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

It also includes weekend polling, which always favors Dems. But, up +2 still. And up +2 in Rasmussen, as well. Steady as she goes Captain. Full speed ahead.


2 posted on 10/14/2012 11:11:56 AM PDT by MrChips (MrChips)
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To: Arthurio

I guess Gallup can’t cover up their false numbers any longer regardless of threats from the White House.


3 posted on 10/14/2012 11:12:39 AM PDT by HarleyD
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To: Arthurio

You see this every presidential election. The polls break in one direction or another in mid October, and they stay broken.


4 posted on 10/14/2012 11:15:28 AM PDT by fhayek
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To: Arthurio

Gee there is that 47 percent number again..I tell ya that Mitt Romney is quite the wiz with numbers


5 posted on 10/14/2012 11:21:26 AM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: Arthurio

The Iowa Electronic Markets are making me nervous. I don’t think they have ever been wrong:

Winner Take All shares are Obama 61% and Romney 36%.

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_quotes.html


6 posted on 10/14/2012 11:22:40 AM PDT by PLK
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To: Arthurio

with or without fraud?


7 posted on 10/14/2012 11:31:35 AM PDT by pollywog ("O Thou who changest not, abide with me.".......)
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To: HarleyD

They really tried. They increased minorities to 32% (hint: 2008 was 25% minority votes) and cell phones to 50%. Still didn’t give them what they wanted. Awwww...poor babies.


8 posted on 10/14/2012 11:32:07 AM PDT by UltraV (I use the term Leftist not liberal, because a true liberal would not support government censorship.)
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To: UltraV

That’s all? Given how Obama and the Communists have screwed over any economic recovery ...

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/10/14/the-stagnant-housing-recovery-and-the-slowest-economic-recovery-since-1882/


9 posted on 10/14/2012 11:32:57 AM PDT by whitedog57
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To: PLK

You mentioned Iowa, and then the winner take all shares.

Do the quotes only apply to Iowa, or to the whole shootin’ match?

If it’s the whole shootin’ match, I don’t think that’s very accurate.

Things are way too close to support those kind of lop-sided figures.


10 posted on 10/14/2012 11:34:47 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (We should ignore the absurd peripheral, and focus on the absurd Obama. People died. He lied!)
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To: UltraV

So Romney is up about 6-7 points if the sample is realistic.


11 posted on 10/14/2012 11:39:16 AM PDT by rdl6989 (January 20, 2013 The end of an error.)
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To: HarleyD

I guess Gallup can’t cover up their false numbers any longer regardless of threats from the White House.


The closer we get to election day, the closer to what will actually happen they will get. The actual election results are the standard by which they are measured. A month out, there IS no standard so they can do what they want as long as it isn’t too ridiculous compared to other polling firms.


12 posted on 10/14/2012 11:41:18 AM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: Arthurio

How can Obama possibly come back?

He’s got two more debates, which by tradition allow no outside sources - i.e., teleprompters - so he’ll be lost in space again, twice.

How’s he gonna win back voters??


13 posted on 10/14/2012 11:41:32 AM PDT by canuck_conservative
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To: fhayek

I won’t declare victory until after this next debate though. There is still a chance there might be a big shift after this next debate either way. However, I will say, I highly doubt that will happen.

And ultimately, I don’t see the last debate changing much, so the pattern after this debate will probably continue until the election.


14 posted on 10/14/2012 11:44:11 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: DoughtyOne
These markets trade REAL money and are open to traders world-wide. From website: "The IEM 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Markets are real-money futures markets where contract payoffs will be determined by the popular vote cast in the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election."

Go here if you want to see past performance of the markets: http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/media/previous.html

15 posted on 10/14/2012 11:48:45 AM PDT by PLK
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To: canuck_conservative

Romney needs to play his responses in this “debate” to the swing states. There will be nothing new coming out of the Marxist’s mouth. At this point, the Marxist campaign has no more bullets. If they did we would have seen it over the past week. They have watched the polls swing to Romney and essentially had no response.


16 posted on 10/14/2012 11:49:41 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: rwfromkansas

I agree. The third debate will be on foreign policy, expect low ratings for that. It will be of interest only to policy wonks. The swing state soccer moms will sleep right through it.

So the second debate will be the last big chance to change momentum, short of an October surprise.

This will be a tougher format for Romney, because there is less back and forth in townhall. It will allow Obama to get in more sound bite demagogic attacks without sufficient opportunity for rebuttal.


17 posted on 10/14/2012 11:52:07 AM PDT by Arthurio
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To: PLK
One of these charts is Obama's current intrade numbers... The other chart is for Nasdaq 2001. Can you guess which is which?


18 posted on 10/14/2012 11:55:44 AM PDT by Arthurio
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To: PLK

Thanks for the link.

If Obama pulls this off, I’ll be shocked.

I wonder how much campaign money goes into this pool. That can be funneled by individuals too.


19 posted on 10/14/2012 11:59:52 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (We should ignore the absurd peripheral, and focus on the absurd Obama. People died. He lied!)
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To: Arthurio

I know. Obama has fallen on the graph, but there’s still a 26 point difference between Obama and Romney. Am I reading this wrong??


20 posted on 10/14/2012 12:05:03 PM PDT by PLK
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To: PLK

The Colorado professors using an economic model have never been wrong either, and they have picked Romney. Why focus on a single thing - betting?


21 posted on 10/14/2012 12:06:45 PM PDT by txrangerette ("HOLD TO THE TRUTH...SPEAK WITHOUT FEAR." - Glenn Beck)
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To: rwfromkansas
I won’t declare victory until after victory.
22 posted on 10/14/2012 12:10:06 PM PDT by af_vet_1981 (The bus came by and I got on, That's when it all began,)
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To: PLK

Plausibly, I think IEM or Intrade could easily be gamed by someone with a big stack, simply for the sake of saying their candidate was “winning”.


23 posted on 10/14/2012 12:14:48 PM PDT by Eccl 10:2 (Prov 3:5 --- "Trust in the Lord with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding")
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To: Arthurio

meaningless. Another clear Romney debate win should seal the deal. Hopefully he has it in him


24 posted on 10/14/2012 12:15:22 PM PDT by wiseprince
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To: PLK

But how much money is traded in those “markets”?

I think money raised by the candidates is a better factor, and looking at these number Romney kicks ass.


25 posted on 10/14/2012 12:17:25 PM PDT by Red in Blue PA (Read SCOTUS Castle Rock vs Gonzales before dialing 911!)
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To: PLK

But how much money is traded in those “markets”?

I think money raised by the candidates is a better factor, and looking at these number Romney kicks ass.


26 posted on 10/14/2012 12:17:40 PM PDT by Red in Blue PA (Read SCOTUS Castle Rock vs Gonzales before dialing 911!)
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To: Arthurio

October surprise, you mean like, “oh, here’s Zawahiri, under this rock the whole time”


27 posted on 10/14/2012 12:19:25 PM PDT by wiseprince
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To: Eccl 10:2

IEM and Intrade can change on a dime. They are snapshots for a moment in time. IEM and Intrade flipped and flopped and fluctuated wildly in 2004 when the exit polls said Kerry was going to win. Then it started swinging toward Bush. It was 20-80, 80-20, and then toward the end of the night 55-45 Bush until it became clear it was Bush. If Romney does well in the 2nd debate, you’ll see Intrade and IEM flip in a split second.


28 posted on 10/14/2012 12:20:10 PM PDT by hawaiian
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To: canuck_conservative
How’s he gonna win back voters??

"Hi-Ho, Hi-Ho..."


29 posted on 10/14/2012 12:28:06 PM PDT by Caipirabob (Communists... Socialists... Democrats...Traitors... Who can tell the difference?)
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To: PLK

“I don’t think they’ve ever been wrong.” Wrong when? In mid-October? Or the day before the election? People need to stop looking toward Intradea nd other things like that in October.


30 posted on 10/14/2012 12:30:08 PM PDT by paglia444
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To: PLK

Bubbles do not deflate instantly.


31 posted on 10/14/2012 12:50:44 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: PLK

Is 2004 chopped liver?


32 posted on 10/14/2012 12:55:09 PM PDT by Cruising For Freedom (Don't be the proof that MSM PsyOps works.)
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To: paglia444
Wrong when? In mid-October? Or the day before the election? People need to stop looking toward Intradea nd other things like that in October.

You are right about that. My original post was just a comment on how different the Rasmussen, etc. poll results are from the IEM at this time. As far as whether they have been accurate, you can check the historical data at the webpage below. The IEM has a history of being very accurate at final outcome.

http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/closed/

33 posted on 10/14/2012 12:57:40 PM PDT by PLK
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To: canuck_conservative

He doesn’t have to win back voters, he will just cancel the election if it looks like he is going to lose./s


34 posted on 10/14/2012 1:05:24 PM PDT by HerrBlucher (Praise to the Lord the Almighty the King of Creation)
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To: PLK

That market always reflects establishment conventional wisdom. If I remember correctly, it was favoring Kerry on election day 2004 until substantial results started coming in. It is less helpful than polls in discerning which way the election is heading. It is a very lagging indicator.


35 posted on 10/14/2012 1:26:42 PM PDT by liberlog
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To: Arthurio

Bah, they are setting up the gullible for the already scripted Obama “win” proclamations of the next debate and his subsequent massive surge in the “polls” following it boosting him into the election....


36 posted on 10/14/2012 1:48:19 PM PDT by Mechanicos (When did we amend the Constitution for a 2nd Federal Prohibition?)
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To: Mechanicos
...they are setting up the gullible for the already scripted Obama “win” proclamations of the next debate...

It's a given that the Lamestream Media will declare Osama to have *crushed* Romney in both upcoming debates.How many voters,if any,will be fooled?

37 posted on 10/14/2012 2:05:16 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive)
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To: Gay State Conservative

The MSM tried to do that with the VP debate. They know they can’t allow another Romney blowout. I’m definitely looking for the media to spin it any way they can to put Obama on top.


38 posted on 10/14/2012 2:38:30 PM PDT by Proudcongal
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To: PLK
“are open to traders world-wide”

This is a big point. Many outside of the US would love to see Obama selected and have us screwed even more.

39 posted on 10/14/2012 2:58:24 PM PDT by pieceofthepuzzle
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To: Proudcongal

The CNN “immediate reaction” poll has served as a nice buffer against the media spin. For some reason this usually irresponsible network has been doing something right.


40 posted on 10/14/2012 3:08:08 PM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: Proudcongal

The problem with the media dubbing anyone the victory is we have the ability to give live reactions via twitter/face book/forums this day and age. The public reaction is more apparent and easy to see.


41 posted on 10/14/2012 3:11:28 PM PDT by goodolemr
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To: PLK

“These markets trade REAL money and are open to traders world-wide.”

Including George Soros and friends?


42 posted on 10/14/2012 3:12:43 PM PDT by ari-freedom
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To: canuck_conservative

Get ready for Joe Biden and Moderator Vs. GOP round 2, and round 3.


43 posted on 10/14/2012 3:44:09 PM PDT by CommieCutter
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To: af_vet_1981

The hen is most wisest of God’s creatures. She crows and cackles only after the eggs have hatched.

——Lincoln


44 posted on 10/14/2012 5:41:53 PM PDT by Kolath
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To: PLK

I can’t cite the post now, but I will bookmark this and reply later.

There was a poster there that admitted manipulating the Bush/Kerry IEM market in 2004 and making a bundle doing it.

iEM is always right AT THE END. The prices converge as the polls close. It isn’t necessarily correct until then.


45 posted on 10/14/2012 5:59:34 PM PDT by justlurking (The only remedy for a bad guy with a gun is a good WOMAN (Sgt. Kimberly Munley) with a gun)
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To: PLK

These markets are too small to be efficient and hence are not accurate.

I once thought that ‘people are putting down their money’ so they should be more accurate. But the markets never grew big enough to ensure efficiency.

If anything - they are trailing indicators. Most of the money represents people betting after a combination of the polls plus the narrative.

So it’s a trailing indicator of the polls, which are skewed against Romney by at least 2.5 points, and a trailing indicator of the mood/narrative.


46 posted on 10/14/2012 6:06:52 PM PDT by HannibalHamlinJr
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To: Arthurio

Intrade still has Obama at 61.7% chance of winning as at this posting time.

Go figure...


47 posted on 10/14/2012 6:10:46 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: BlueStateRightist
Romney needs to play his responses in this “debate” to the swing states.

Remember, the topic of this debate is foreign affairs. Obama can only attack Romney for what he thinks Romney's foreign policies MIGHT be. Romeny has the advantage to explain why Obama's foreign policies have been a disaster, and why they need to be changed. I don't think the topics can be swayed toward swing states, versus, non-swing states. I think the third debate will be available for that.

48 posted on 10/14/2012 7:12:51 PM PDT by Go Gordon (It's barack hussein obama - because he doesn't believe in capitalism.)
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To: Go Gordon

Remember the topic of this the townhall debate is... GASP! everything.


49 posted on 10/14/2012 7:14:45 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong!)
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To: Go Gordon

“Remember, the topic of this debate is foreign affairs.”

Not fully true.

Straight from the website:

“Second presidential debate (October 16, 2012, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY)

The second presidential debate will take the form of a town meeting, in which citizens will ask questions of the candidates on foreign and domestic issues. Candidates each will have two minutes to respond, and an additional minute for the moderator to facilitate a discussion. The town meeting participants will be undecided voters selected by the Gallup Organization.”


50 posted on 10/14/2012 7:21:09 PM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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