Skip to comments.Presidential Contest Tight Nationally Ahead Of Second Debate [WaPo/ABC: Obama 49%; Romney 46%]
Posted on 10/14/2012 10:00:31 PM PDT by Steelfish
Presidential Contest Tight Nationally Ahead Of Second Debate
Dan Balz and Jon Cohen October 14
On the eve of their second debate, President Obama and challenger Mitt Romney remain locked in a virtual dead heat nationally, with Republicans showing increased enthusiasm for their nominee after his big win in the first debate, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Likely voters in the new poll split 49 percent for Obama to 46 percent for Romney, basically unmoved from the poll two weeks ago, just before the two candidates met in Denver for their first debate. On topic after topic, the survey portrays an electorate that remains deeply divided along partisan lines and locked in its views.
Nearly two-thirds say they do not need any more information before Election Day, and barely one in eight is undecided or says there is a chance he could change his vote. Even as voters overwhelmingly perceive that Romney won the first debate, the vast majority say their opinion of the president did not shift as a result.
But more people changed their views of Romney, largely in a positive direction. Overall, more than twice as many say their opinions of the former Massachusetts governor improved than say they worsened as a result of the debate. The strongest reaction is among Romney backers, 70 percent of whom say Denver made them think more highly of the GOP nominee.
The improvement in views of Romney carries directly into the underpinnings of his support: Fewer of his supporters now express anxiety about a Romney administration, and the number of his backers saying they support him very enthusiastically jumped by double digits. Among the likely voters supporting Romney, 62 percent now do so intensely, exactly double the number who were eagerly lined up behind Republican nominee...
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
I did an analysis of this Pravda Press article. It turns out EVERY word is a lie, including “and” and “the”.
Steelfish found another poll where Obama is ahead! Why it does not surprise me!!
I see the polls are back to being extra padded again. Giving Obama a buffer in case he bombs again, or if he manages to do alright they can justify a fabricated ‘surge’ in his polling as evincing a spectacular comeback.
Yeah, this Steelfish fellow... he’s crossed my radar before.... let me do a thorough investigation on possible troll status... I also need to run over and give TArcher some props for backing his argument pretty well, and remove him from the troll radar, although we definitely come to opposed conclusions on the data... ping out to TArcher, will get over there tomorrow...
Change your rose-tinted glasses and deal with a mature reality. We can’t one day support a poll because Romney is ahead and the next day attack it because it shows our side is not ahead. Being childish is of no help either to Romney camp or the intelligent analysis of the poll at hand.
I do not believe anything the Post prints....even if they said the sun rose in the east
[was any of the punctuation true?]
I’m really starting to “wonder” about “Steelfish”.
we cannot one day read a poll that is heavily skewed left and believe it and then pretend that the skew doesn’t mean anything. go away until the election is over.
Why don’t you spend your time getting the vote out for conservatives
Here's your intelligent analysis
The poll is horseshit
At least you make a good analysis unlike some of the others wearing horse blinders. Of course is the breakdown you cite based on the national registration breakdown? likely voters based on 2008? 2012? These are all relevant questions.
First question - What are the internals???
“Partisan identification fluctuates from poll to poll as basic orientations shift and with the sampling variability that accompanies each randomly selected sample of voters. In the current poll, Democrats outnumber Republicans by nine percentage points among likely voters; the previous three Post-ABC polls had three-, six- and five-percentage-point edges for Democrats. “
THIS IS A D +9 POLL!!!!!!!
So, if turnout is 3 points better than Obama got in 2008 - he’s up 3 points. So Obama is even in a 2008 turnout world.
Not only that but the shift was 4 pts more D, and the out come was the same, so Obama’s REAL position is about 4 points worse.
This poll is purely to negate other real valid polls so the poll averages dont show Romney ahead. It’s off by at least 6 points, confirming that Romney is in fact ahead by about 3 points.
This is getting ludicrous. I sense the media has had enough with the Romney momentum and are going to do everything they can to declare Obama the winner of the next debate and then puke out bogus poll after bogus poll.
I think a lot depends on whether there has been a discernible shift among single white women. This bloc will decide the outcome of this election.
I don’t think steelfish understands samples and basic electoral metrics, just my opinion, no offense.
You are missing my point....Of course I know R+R won’t win every swing state, or every poll. But you must derive a pleasure in posting the negative news for R+R. Your negative news posts far outnumber positive news for Romney/Ryan.
This is not Steelfish’s poll.
The breakdown I cite are the internals to the specific poll you posted.
You didn't see them?
lol I never said Steelfish conducted that poll. You may want to read my another post just above.
So, why was Obama up by 3 pts? Obviously, because their sample was D+9.
Yet, they describe the Romney voters as vastly more enthusiastic and motivated than the Obama voters. So, how can their sample be D+9 -- when, in 2008, it was only D+8?
It's my understanding that pollsters don't weight for party ID. But, they DO weight for the standard demographic characteristics -- age, income, education, race, gender, etc. But, somehow, the demographic weighting is resulting in an over-sampling of white Democrats.
I submit this could well be an effect due to Caller ID. White Republicans may well be less likely to respond to an unknown number or a pollster ID than white Democrats. As a consequence, the demographic cohort we happen to inhabit ends up with an over-representation of white Democrats.
Highly possible, since we now know that only 9% of calls result in a complete interview.
Accordingly, in my opinion, it is probably safe to mentally adjust the results to a lower Dem turnout than +9 and conclude that the race is either tied or Romney has a slight lead.
Moreover, I note that, on many specific questions -- such as right track/wrong track, Obama is under-performing his supposed 49-46 advantage.
In my view, this suggests that there are many respondents who are a.) giving an honest answer to the specific questions but b.) hedging with their presidential preference vote -- not wanting to be perceived as a "racist".
Once in the privacy of the voting booth many of those will cast their vote for Romney. So, add another 2-3 pts to the Romney column.
Finally, history tells us that the "undecideds" will break for the challenger. So, add yet another 2-3 pts to the Romney total.
In the end, I remain confident that this will be a landslide (55-45 or better). But it won't look like it until they actually count the votes...
The bamster bombs at the debate and still hasa 3 point lead?Just aint the truth,not one bit of it.
We know that the environment in 2008 was toxic to any Republican in general, and 0bama was considered novel. Hence, any poll with weight the same, or even worse, give more weight to the Democrats, would be considered suspicious since it maybe overestimate the Dhims. Similarly, while 2010 did happen, it was not a presidential year. So, we might not see the same Republican turnout this year, and any poll using the same weight as 2010 maybe overestimate the Republicans.
So, use your brain too. Consistent knee-jerk reaction against anything positive for Romney or spreading anything negative for him without careful evaluation of the news is also suspicious.
Considering this is a RAT +9 sample, I am more encouraged by these numbers than the Rasmussen and Gallup numbers that show Romney ahead.
Of course, ABC has an agenda behind releasing them this way. They need to try to show that the Kenyan has turned the tide and is still in command even though that is far from the reality of the situation.
True. An honestly weighted sample of D+3 or so would show Romney up by a couple of points.
I am certain that is why the Post refused to use such a sample. Those of us with brains will interpret it correctly, the typical moron that simply hears the story on TV and on the radio will assume Obummer has solidified a lead.
Gallop had Reagan losing to Jimmuh by 6% with 7 days to go until the 1980 election.
We all know how wrong Gallup was - Reagan wins by 10%.
The OBama press cranking out those D+ 9% and more over Rs to fit their delusions.
New Politico poll out. No story posted yet, just raw numbers for now. Looks like a 49-49 tie.
Thanks- we have some folks here who continually behave like the proverbial three blind monkeys when it comes to the Romney-Ryan ticket.
The Battleground / Politico poll is the one I trust the most.
While I would love to see Romney ahead and breaking 50%, if they are seeing a 49/49 tie, I am inclined to believe it.
Not a bad spot for the challenger to be in with less than a month to go, and the momentum moving in his direction.
No, you didn’t say it but you act like one of the proverbial three monkeys who speak no evil, see no evil or hear no evil. In this case the “evil” of course is negative views. Those with intelligence examine the forensics of the poll and come to their own conclusion. Remember that aside from the numbers it also cites a stronger measure of enthusiasm for Romney and refers to a sharply divided electorate which is confirmed in every single poll.
If so nothing could be better for our side if they get the surprise of their life and this trash is taken out of the WH!
I’m compiling a list of concern trolls. Steelfish and chopperjc are the inner-circle Hall of Fame members.
FReepers. Just look at their post histories. They are leftists who have a simple mission: nurture discouragement.
I’ll update my list as time goes on. You’ll notice chopperjc has been pretty quiet since Mitt’s taken the lead in most national polls.
No, but show the breakdown of who is being polled, that is the necessary context.
So when we are suspious of a poll showing Obama ahead it is with good reason, they are cooking the books.
Don't act like our skepticism is unreasonable.
You’re a troll. period.
You scour around to find any and all bad polls or news articles on Romney then run out of here.
[watching “2016” on DirecTV right now...we’ll be distracted for a bit]
Actual question in the poll.
“Q: Who do you think is more likely to go bungee-jumping [BUN-jee], (Obama) or (Romney)?”
Are these f’in people serious?!
I wondered when the “media” were going to start engineering polls back to laughably high D+? sampling.
Anyone who can`t see this crap for what it is is a blind fool.
Watch for NBC/Marist to announce one showing obama ahead by 7, with a D+15 sample.
The punctuation, and even the indentation, were also all lies.
Folks, this is a +9 Dem sample. Romney is winning this, big, barring a major meltdown.
BTW, Ohio universally does 1/2 point better for Rs than the nation as a whole so this reaffirms that Romney wins OH.
BTW, Ohio universally does 1/2 point better for Rs than the nation as a whole so this reaffirms that Romney wins OH.
“This is not Steelfish’s poll” -— and it isn’t the WaPo’s poll either. It is WaPo propaganda designed to prop up Obama’s corporate donors so they don’t bail.
Here you go troll
The party identification in the survey is D +9 (Dem 35, Rep 26, Ind 33). This compares to 2008 when party ID was D +7 (Dem 39, Rep 32, Ind 29) and 2004 when party ID split evenly (Dem 37, Rep 37, Ind 26).
ee cummings wept
Sauce, goose, gander.
I happen to think that R/R has a good shot at pulling this off. But the race is close and the polls are swinging wildly within their margins of error so you are going to see lots of outliers in either direction. If the actual numbers are 47%-47% then given a margin of error of 3% a result of 50%-44% (either way) would still be within the margin of error. I believe that some polls are using this statistical fact to skew their results.
You have to watch the trend and right now it is trending R/R. I predict Obama will only get his 47% come election day.
Dems - 34% + 15
Reps - 25% + 21
Ind - 36%
Quick math tells you Romney is ACTUALLY winning indies by a ratio of 7 to 5, or 16 % points!
Nice internals for Romney.