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Presidential Contest Tight Nationally Ahead Of Second Debate [WaPo/ABC: Obama 49%; Romney 46%]
Washington Post ^ | October 14, 2012

Posted on 10/14/2012 10:00:31 PM PDT by Steelfish

Presidential Contest Tight Nationally Ahead Of Second Debate

Dan Balz and Jon Cohen October 14

On the eve of their second debate, President Obama and challenger Mitt Romney remain locked in a virtual dead heat nationally, with Republicans showing increased enthusiasm for their nominee after his big win in the first debate, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Likely voters in the new poll split 49 percent for Obama to 46 percent for Romney, basically unmoved from the poll two weeks ago, just before the two candidates met in Denver for their first debate. On topic after topic, the survey portrays an electorate that remains deeply divided along partisan lines and locked in its views.

Nearly two-thirds say they do not need any more information before Election Day, and barely one in eight is undecided or says there is a chance he could change his vote. Even as voters overwhelmingly perceive that Romney won the first debate, the vast majority say their opinion of the president did not shift as a result.

But more people changed their views of Romney, largely in a positive direction. Overall, more than twice as many say their opinions of the former Massachusetts governor improved than say they worsened as a result of the debate. The strongest reaction is among Romney backers, 70 percent of whom say Denver made them think more highly of the GOP nominee.

The improvement in views of Romney carries directly into the underpinnings of his support: Fewer of his supporters now express anxiety about a Romney administration, and the number of his backers saying they support him “very enthusiastically” jumped by double digits. Among the likely voters supporting Romney, 62 percent now do so intensely, exactly double the number who were eagerly lined up behind Republican nominee...

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls
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1 posted on 10/14/2012 10:00:34 PM PDT by Steelfish
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To: Steelfish

I did an analysis of this Pravda Press article. It turns out EVERY word is a lie, including “and” and “the”.


2 posted on 10/14/2012 10:04:10 PM PDT by Lazamataz (WAAAAAAAAAHHHhhhhh.....)
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To: Steelfish

3 posted on 10/14/2012 10:06:14 PM PDT by kingattax (99 % of liberals give the rest a bad name)
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To: Lazamataz

Steelfish found another poll where Obama is ahead! Why it does not surprise me!!


4 posted on 10/14/2012 10:10:10 PM PDT by entropy12 (Romney/Ryan 2012... Send Obama back to Chicago/Hawaii/Kenya/Indonesia wherever)
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To: Steelfish

I see the polls are back to being extra padded again. Giving Obama a buffer in case he bombs again, or if he manages to do alright they can justify a fabricated ‘surge’ in his polling as evincing a spectacular comeback.


5 posted on 10/14/2012 10:12:41 PM PDT by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State)
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To: entropy12; TArcher

Yeah, this Steelfish fellow... he’s crossed my radar before.... let me do a thorough investigation on possible troll status... I also need to run over and give TArcher some props for backing his argument pretty well, and remove him from the troll radar, although we definitely come to opposed conclusions on the data... ping out to TArcher, will get over there tomorrow...


6 posted on 10/14/2012 10:15:01 PM PDT by Lazamataz (WAAAAAAAAAHHHhhhhh.....)
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To: entropy12

Change your rose-tinted glasses and deal with a mature reality. We can’t one day support a poll because Romney is ahead and the next day attack it because it shows our side is not ahead. Being childish is of no help either to Romney camp or the intelligent analysis of the poll at hand.


7 posted on 10/14/2012 10:15:12 PM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: Steelfish

I do not believe anything the Post prints....even if they said the sun rose in the east


8 posted on 10/14/2012 10:17:40 PM PDT by Nifster
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To: Lazamataz

LOL

[was any of the punctuation true?]


9 posted on 10/14/2012 10:17:47 PM PDT by Salamander (Can't sleep. Clowns will eat me.)
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To: entropy12

I’m really starting to “wonder” about “Steelfish”.


10 posted on 10/14/2012 10:18:40 PM PDT by Salamander (Can't sleep. Clowns will eat me.)
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To: Steelfish

we cannot one day read a poll that is heavily skewed left and believe it and then pretend that the skew doesn’t mean anything. go away until the election is over.

Why don’t you spend your time getting the vote out for conservatives


11 posted on 10/14/2012 10:20:06 PM PDT by Nifster
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To: Steelfish
Dems - 34%
Reps - 25%
Ind - 36%

Here's your intelligent analysis

The poll is horseshit

12 posted on 10/14/2012 10:20:06 PM PDT by Chunga (Ron Paul is a fruitcakey jackass.)
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To: Chunga

At least you make a good analysis unlike some of the others wearing horse blinders. Of course is the breakdown you cite based on the national registration breakdown? likely voters based on 2008? 2012? These are all relevant questions.


13 posted on 10/14/2012 10:24:08 PM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: Steelfish

First question - What are the internals???

“Partisan identification fluctuates from poll to poll as basic orientations shift and with the sampling variability that accompanies each randomly selected sample of voters. In the current poll, Democrats outnumber Republicans by nine percentage points among likely voters; the previous three Post-ABC polls had three-, six- and five-percentage-point edges for Democrats. “

THIS IS A D +9 POLL!!!!!!!
So, if turnout is 3 points better than Obama got in 2008 - he’s up 3 points. So Obama is even in a 2008 turnout world.

Not only that but the shift was 4 pts more D, and the out come was the same, so Obama’s REAL position is about 4 points worse.
Pollaganda.

This poll is purely to negate other real valid polls so the poll averages dont show Romney ahead. It’s off by at least 6 points, confirming that Romney is in fact ahead by about 3 points.


14 posted on 10/14/2012 10:24:24 PM PDT by WOSG (REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA. He stole America’s promise!)
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To: Chunga

This is getting ludicrous. I sense the media has had enough with the Romney momentum and are going to do everything they can to declare Obama the winner of the next debate and then puke out bogus poll after bogus poll.


15 posted on 10/14/2012 10:27:08 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: WOSG

I think a lot depends on whether there has been a discernible shift among single white women. This bloc will decide the outcome of this election.


16 posted on 10/14/2012 10:27:41 PM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: Chunga; Steelfish

I don’t think steelfish understands samples and basic electoral metrics, just my opinion, no offense.


17 posted on 10/14/2012 10:29:52 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: Steelfish

You are missing my point....Of course I know R+R won’t win every swing state, or every poll. But you must derive a pleasure in posting the negative news for R+R. Your negative news posts far outnumber positive news for Romney/Ryan.


18 posted on 10/14/2012 10:31:17 PM PDT by entropy12 (Romney/Ryan 2012... Send Obama back to Chicago/Hawaii/Kenya/Indonesia wherever)
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To: entropy12

This is not Steelfish’s poll.


19 posted on 10/14/2012 10:31:17 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Take two Aspirin and call me in November - Obama for Hindmost.)
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To: Steelfish
Of course is the breakdown you cite based on the national registration breakdown? likely voters based on 2008? 2012? These are all relevant questions.

The breakdown I cite are the internals to the specific poll you posted.

You didn't see them?

20 posted on 10/14/2012 10:32:33 PM PDT by Chunga (Ron Paul is a fruitcakey jackass.)
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To: Mike Darancette

lol I never said Steelfish conducted that poll. You may want to read my another post just above.


21 posted on 10/14/2012 10:32:58 PM PDT by entropy12 (Romney/Ryan 2012... Send Obama back to Chicago/Hawaii/Kenya/Indonesia wherever)
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To: Steelfish
I was contacted for this poll. The pollster was very professional and the questions were generally well-constructed.

So, why was Obama up by 3 pts? Obviously, because their sample was D+9.

Yet, they describe the Romney voters as vastly more enthusiastic and motivated than the Obama voters. So, how can their sample be D+9 -- when, in 2008, it was only D+8?

It's my understanding that pollsters don't weight for party ID. But, they DO weight for the standard demographic characteristics -- age, income, education, race, gender, etc. But, somehow, the demographic weighting is resulting in an over-sampling of white Democrats.

I submit this could well be an effect due to Caller ID. White Republicans may well be less likely to respond to an unknown number or a pollster ID than white Democrats. As a consequence, the demographic cohort we happen to inhabit ends up with an over-representation of white Democrats.

Highly possible, since we now know that only 9% of calls result in a complete interview.

Accordingly, in my opinion, it is probably safe to mentally adjust the results to a lower Dem turnout than +9 and conclude that the race is either tied or Romney has a slight lead.

Moreover, I note that, on many specific questions -- such as right track/wrong track, Obama is under-performing his supposed 49-46 advantage.

In my view, this suggests that there are many respondents who are a.) giving an honest answer to the specific questions but b.) hedging with their presidential preference vote -- not wanting to be perceived as a "racist".

Once in the privacy of the voting booth many of those will cast their vote for Romney. So, add another 2-3 pts to the Romney column.

Finally, history tells us that the "undecideds" will break for the challenger. So, add yet another 2-3 pts to the Romney total.

In the end, I remain confident that this will be a landslide (55-45 or better). But it won't look like it until they actually count the votes...

22 posted on 10/14/2012 10:42:00 PM PDT by okie01 (THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA; Ignorance on parade.)
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To: Steelfish

The bamster bombs at the debate and still hasa 3 point lead?Just aint the truth,not one bit of it.


23 posted on 10/14/2012 10:48:29 PM PDT by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: Steelfish
We cannot believe in polls when they're 'pro' us, and hate them when they're 'against' us. However, we can use our brain in looking at every poll and evaluate them ourselves: are they using additional weights? Are the weights appropriate, by taking into account factors that are important to voting? Etc...

We know that the environment in 2008 was toxic to any Republican in general, and 0bama was considered novel. Hence, any poll with weight the same, or even worse, give more weight to the Democrats, would be considered suspicious since it maybe overestimate the Dhims. Similarly, while 2010 did happen, it was not a presidential year. So, we might not see the same Republican turnout this year, and any poll using the same weight as 2010 maybe overestimate the Republicans.

So, use your brain too. Consistent knee-jerk reaction against anything positive for Romney or spreading anything negative for him without careful evaluation of the news is also suspicious.

24 posted on 10/14/2012 10:51:05 PM PDT by paudio (Post-racial society: When we can legitimately hire and fire a Black man without feeling guilty.)
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To: Steelfish

Considering this is a RAT +9 sample, I am more encouraged by these numbers than the Rasmussen and Gallup numbers that show Romney ahead.

Of course, ABC has an agenda behind releasing them this way. They need to try to show that the Kenyan has turned the tide and is still in command even though that is far from the reality of the situation.


25 posted on 10/14/2012 11:11:01 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: paudio

True. An honestly weighted sample of D+3 or so would show Romney up by a couple of points.

I am certain that is why the Post refused to use such a sample. Those of us with brains will interpret it correctly, the typical moron that simply hears the story on TV and on the radio will assume Obummer has solidified a lead.


26 posted on 10/14/2012 11:15:30 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: Steelfish

Gallop had Reagan losing to Jimmuh by 6% with 7 days to go until the 1980 election.

We all know how wrong Gallup was - Reagan wins by 10%.


27 posted on 10/14/2012 11:15:46 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: Steelfish

The OBama press cranking out those D+ 9% and more over Rs to fit their delusions.


28 posted on 10/14/2012 11:20:03 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: comebacknewt

New Politico poll out. No story posted yet, just raw numbers for now. Looks like a 49-49 tie.

http://images.politico.com/global/2012/10/politico_gwbgp_oct15_pollresults.html


29 posted on 10/14/2012 11:20:17 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Mike Darancette

Thanks- we have some folks here who continually behave like the proverbial three blind monkeys when it comes to the Romney-Ryan ticket.


30 posted on 10/14/2012 11:23:23 PM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: Arthurio

The Battleground / Politico poll is the one I trust the most.

While I would love to see Romney ahead and breaking 50%, if they are seeing a 49/49 tie, I am inclined to believe it.

Not a bad spot for the challenger to be in with less than a month to go, and the momentum moving in his direction.


31 posted on 10/14/2012 11:25:54 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: entropy12

No, you didn’t say it but you act like one of the proverbial three monkeys who speak no evil, see no evil or hear no evil. In this case the “evil” of course is negative views. Those with intelligence examine the forensics of the poll and come to their own conclusion. Remember that aside from the numbers it also cites a stronger measure of enthusiasm for Romney and refers to a sharply divided electorate which is confirmed in every single poll.


32 posted on 10/14/2012 11:27:06 PM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: Red Steel

If so nothing could be better for our side if they get the surprise of their life and this trash is taken out of the WH!


33 posted on 10/14/2012 11:30:02 PM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: Salamander; chopperjc; Steelfish

I’m compiling a list of concern trolls. Steelfish and chopperjc are the inner-circle Hall of Fame members.

FReepers. Just look at their post histories. They are leftists who have a simple mission: nurture discouragement.

I’ll update my list as time goes on. You’ll notice chopperjc has been pretty quiet since Mitt’s taken the lead in most national polls.

Hank


34 posted on 10/14/2012 11:33:47 PM PDT by County Agent Hank Kimball (Myth Romney is a vile Fabian Socialist - his opponent is infinitely worse. How did it come to this?)
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To: Steelfish

No, but show the breakdown of who is being polled, that is the necessary context.


35 posted on 10/14/2012 11:40:41 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Steelfish
Well I guess you can throw this poll out as well.

So when we are suspious of a poll showing Obama ahead it is with good reason, they are cooking the books.

Don't act like our skepticism is unreasonable.

36 posted on 10/14/2012 11:42:56 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Steelfish

You’re a troll. period.

You scour around to find any and all bad polls or news articles on Romney then run out of here.


37 posted on 10/14/2012 11:51:03 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

Thanks, Hank...:)

[watching “2016” on DirecTV right now...we’ll be distracted for a bit]


38 posted on 10/15/2012 12:59:41 AM PDT by Salamander (Can't sleep. Clowns will eat me.)
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To: Steelfish

Actual question in the poll.

“Q: Who do you think is more likely to go bungee-jumping [BUN-jee], (Obama) or (Romney)?”

Are these f’in people serious?!


39 posted on 10/15/2012 1:25:07 AM PDT by princeofdarkness ( Nobama. No more. No way. November 2012.)
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To: Arthurio

I wondered when the “media” were going to start engineering polls back to laughably high D+? sampling.

Anyone who can`t see this crap for what it is is a blind fool.

Watch for NBC/Marist to announce one showing obama ahead by 7, with a D+15 sample.


40 posted on 10/15/2012 2:39:23 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Record high turnout is our hope for sending 0bama home. Pray hard!!!)
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To: Salamander
No.

The punctuation, and even the indentation, were also all lies.

41 posted on 10/15/2012 3:27:54 AM PDT by Lazamataz (WAAAAAAAAAHHHhhhhh.....)
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To: Steelfish

Folks, this is a +9 Dem sample. Romney is winning this, big, barring a major meltdown.


42 posted on 10/15/2012 3:38:13 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Steelfish
You're right. We here at FR analyze EVERY poll in light of party samples. This one points to a big Romney victory. Romney according to this, Gallup, and Ras now with a correct sample all have Romney up 3-4. Thanks for posting more proof.

BTW, Ohio universally does 1/2 point better for Rs than the nation as a whole so this reaffirms that Romney wins OH.

43 posted on 10/15/2012 3:43:30 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Steelfish
You're right. We here at FR analyze EVERY poll in light of party samples. This one points to a big Romney victory. Romney according to this, Gallup, and Ras now with a correct sample all have Romney up 3-4. Thanks for posting more proof.

BTW, Ohio universally does 1/2 point better for Rs than the nation as a whole so this reaffirms that Romney wins OH.

44 posted on 10/15/2012 3:43:48 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Mike Darancette; Steelfish

“This is not Steelfish’s poll” -— and it isn’t the WaPo’s poll either. It is WaPo propaganda designed to prop up Obama’s corporate donors so they don’t bail.


45 posted on 10/15/2012 3:48:34 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Steelfish

Here you go troll

The party identification in the survey is D +9 (Dem 35, Rep 26, Ind 33). This compares to 2008 when party ID was D +7 (Dem 39, Rep 32, Ind 29) and 2004 when party ID split evenly (Dem 37, Rep 37, Ind 26).


46 posted on 10/15/2012 4:10:25 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Lazamataz

ee cummings wept


47 posted on 10/15/2012 4:34:34 AM PDT by Salamander (Can't sleep. Clowns will eat me.)
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To: Steelfish
This is a D+9 poll and the LSM is happy to hype the result. Imagine how they'd react to an R+9 poll....they would be writhing on the floor, biting the fingers while screaming....."This poll is not fair to the democrats".

Sauce, goose, gander.

48 posted on 10/15/2012 5:24:57 AM PDT by JPG (Make it happen)
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To: Steelfish

I happen to think that R/R has a good shot at pulling this off. But the race is close and the polls are swinging wildly within their margins of error so you are going to see lots of outliers in either direction. If the actual numbers are 47%-47% then given a margin of error of 3% a result of 50%-44% (either way) would still be within the margin of error. I believe that some polls are using this statistical fact to skew their results.

You have to watch the trend and right now it is trending R/R. I predict Obama will only get his 47% come election day.


49 posted on 10/15/2012 5:25:32 AM PDT by Mike Darancette (Take two Aspirin and call me in November - Obama for Hindmost.)
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To: Chunga

Dems - 34% + 15
Reps - 25% + 21
Ind - 36%


Quick math tells you Romney is ACTUALLY winning indies by a ratio of 7 to 5, or 16 % points!

Nice internals for Romney.


50 posted on 10/15/2012 5:47:31 AM PDT by WOSG (REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA. He stole America’s promise!)
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