Skip to comments.Republican poll analysis: A closer race now tilting towards Romney
Posted on 10/15/2012 5:46:09 AM PDT by tatown
The bottom line in this latest data is that while Barack Obama continued to hold his one percentage-point lead (49 percent-48 percent) from the week before, every other key measurement now tilts toward Mitt Romney. Those voting for Romney are eight percentage points more intense than those who are voting for Barack Obama. Romney is leading among voters extremely likely to vote by 51 percent to 47 percent, definite voters by 44 percent to 43 percent, voters in the POLITICO Battleground states by 50 percent to 48 percent, pocketbook voters by 55percent to 43 percent, middle-class voters by 51 percent to 46 percent, and middle class families by 55 percent to 42 percent.
Additionally, among subgroups in the latest POLITICO/GWU Battleground Poll, Mitt Romney holds a path to a majority victory in November. Romney is winning with Republicans (net +90 percent) by a bigger margin than Obama is with Democrats (net +88percent), and winning with independent voters by 49 percent to 41 percent. Romney received majority support from key groups, like seniors (57 percent); white voters (57 percent); college graduates (51 percent); weekly church attendees (60 percent), including a plurality of Catholic voters; and married voters (54 percent), including white married women (60 percent-38 percent) who are voting for Romney at almost the same margin as white married men (61 percent-35 percent). The trend of Romney voters being more intense about voting than Obama voters runs throughout all these groups. In a close race, turnout and enthusiasm will matter, and Romney has the clear advantage on both.
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
If Romney is really closing in in Minnesota and California, it will not be close. And frankly, I hope it is a blowout. Less chance for fraud in both the presidential and down-ballot elections. 2000 was razor close and the democrats took senate seats and governorships in the close elections. On the other hand, in 1980, a lot of the senate seats that gave the republicans the majority were pulled across the finish line by the landslide.
After two close republican victories in ‘00 and ‘04, I’d like to see a decisive victory for a republican. The democrats love to push their “illigitimate president” nonsense to thwart any conservative advance.
It is Romney’s to lose. If he continues with what he is doing, he should win this thing.
What are the internals on this poll?
I heard Gov. Kasich and Sen. Portman talking last night to Bill Cunningham. Their point was that the race in Ohio, which all on our side are so nervous about, IS extremely close. Whereas it seems they believed Obama was up by SOME amount before the first debate, now it really is extremely close. Kasich said what Mitt needs to do is just come to OH as much as possible and continue to let himself show through the filter and false image, directly to the people of Ohio. And Portman said it was about turnout, turnout, turnout.
Looks like Ohio might be the sticking point.
It appears more and more analyst are beginning to indicate Ohio is the determinate in this election.
Doesn’t it always?
Not always, but almost always. Remember Florida in 2000?
I cannot believe the race will anywhere near close unless half of the states think and act like California and I don’t think that is the case. I think the media is just cooking the numbers to make it more newsworthy.
If you go by the size of the crowds its looking good for R&R.
I get the sense most of the powers that be on our side believe the Kenyan is still up by a couple of points in Ohio. Romney needs to find a way to pull another one or two percent over to his side in order to take command.
Of course, the press efforts to rehabilitate the Obama campaign begin tomorrow evening. I am sure the “amazing comeback” stories have already been written and are just waiting to go to press.
What impact they ultimately have will likely decide this election.
I can’t stand these polls. NONE can be trusted.
If true, a couple of polling points is too close to call. It could be one point, even tighter. Or tied.
And people DO lie to pollsters. In OH you have some union types who are pressured beyond measure to vote Democrat. You have blacks that might think Obama is a failure, don’t like same sex marriage, whatever, and a black caller to Ben Ferguson last night said when she tried to talk up Romney not Obama her co-workers gave her such grief she had to shut up. Or leave or job, one of the two. But when people go into the voting booth they can still pull the lever even though they didn’t admit it to a pollster.
I have hope. Even with where things stand today. As for pulling a couple of percentage points his way, that’s what all of what Romney is doing is about. He is on it like a cat on a June bug. Remains to be seen what results. But he and the entire GOP and tea party are ON IT.
They can skew the polls, but the internals all show Romney strength.
“Romney winning with independent voters by 49 percent to 41 percent.”
Recipe for Romney victory:
1) independent 8 point lead. Other polls are in double digits.
2) Romney is holding on to R voters better than O is to D voters.
3) Actual vote will be D +2 to R +1 range.
==> Romney wins. IMHO will be by 5 pts.
I want to see MSNBC in mourning on November 7th. I want them without hope. I want them to be spitting, convulsing, retching, raving idiots.