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ROMNEY 55%, OBAMA 42% -- QSN DTP 10/15
Unskewed Polls ^ | October 15, 2012 | Unskewed polls

Posted on 10/15/2012 8:05:21 AM PDT by MuttTheHoople

Choice of Presidential ticket: Obama/Biden vs. Romney/Ryan

Date Obama/Biden Romney/Ryan Johnson/Gray

Oct. 15, 2012 42 55 3

(Excerpt) Read more at unskewedpolls.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; obama; polls; romney; unskewed
Some say this poll isn't credible. However, it appears to correspond to what people have been seeing on the ground (enthusiasm for Romney supporters, depression and apathy for Obama supporters, more Romney signs than Obama signs).

Also, I think the Bradley-Wilder effect will be on steroids. In 2008, Obama presented himself as a self-effacing moderate who would take the best ideas of all sides and try to make them work. In 2012, we see that he's a Marxist autocrat incapable of any such thing.

Finally, the black vote. One thing will that many blacks will just stay home. Another thing is this- a small but not insignificant group of blacks will get into the privacy of the voting booth and pull the lever for Romney. They might have Obama stickers on their car, they'll tell everybody they got Obama's back, but when they think about the future of America, they'll do the right thing.

1 posted on 10/15/2012 8:05:26 AM PDT by MuttTheHoople
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To: MuttTheHoople
I'm not inclined to believe this any more than I believe Osama +5.I'll be thrilled with 270 Electoral Votes but I’ll be ecstatic with 350.
2 posted on 10/15/2012 8:09:48 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive)
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To: Gay State Conservative

Difficult, for sure. Myself, I prefer to believe the roiling, boiling cauldron of seething anger at Obama’s ineptitude massing together in a tidal wave of rejection come November 6.


3 posted on 10/15/2012 8:13:02 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: Gay State Conservative
That crap pretty much does it for me...I would like for FR to be a

POLL-FREE WEBSITE until the election

4 posted on 10/15/2012 8:13:31 AM PDT by ken5050 (Barack Obama: An empty suit sitting in an empty chair...)
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To: MuttTheHoople

I don’t know anything about this poll, but I’ve said this for a long long time, Obama will not and cannot get above 42-43% of the popular vote at BEST!!! And I feel he’ll have to be INCREDIBLY LUCKY to get that much.

It is not beyond the realm of possibility that Obama will even get 40% of the vote, and could be he will not get as much as Hoover did in 1938!

To throw a little bit back in this idiots face.. You can’t put lipstick on a pig.. and Obama/Biden has been the biggest hog of the last century.


5 posted on 10/15/2012 8:13:56 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: Gay State Conservative

I just don’t buy this guy’s methodology. I think it’s just as screwy as every other poll coming down the pike. Polls are being used as campaign propoganda...and as far as I can tell this year that’s all they’re good for.


6 posted on 10/15/2012 8:16:58 AM PDT by pgkdan (A vote for anyone but Romney is a vote for obama. GO MITT!!)
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To: MuttTheHoople
They might have Obama stickers on their car, they'll tell everybody they got Obama's back, but when they think about the future of America, they'll do the right thing

The Bradley effect, in reverse. I like it. It's what everyone should do, anyways.

7 posted on 10/15/2012 8:17:12 AM PDT by Izzy Dunne (Hello, I'm a TAGLINE virus. Please help me spread by copying me into YOUR tag line.)
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To: ken5050

224 LIKELY voters? Have you seen the wild day-to-day swings in this poll? Come on...


8 posted on 10/15/2012 8:18:13 AM PDT by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: ken5050
I would like for FR to be a POLL-FREE WEBSITE until the election

OK, everybody - vote:

Poll-Free Republic: 1 (ken5050)
Free Republic: 1 (Izzy Dunne)

9 posted on 10/15/2012 8:19:33 AM PDT by Izzy Dunne (Hello, I'm a TAGLINE virus. Please help me spread by copying me into YOUR tag line.)
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To: MuttTheHoople

It’s an online poll, completely worthless.


10 posted on 10/15/2012 8:19:45 AM PDT by Truthsearcher
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To: MuttTheHoople

I’ll keep my Mid-Summer’s prediction of 55% / 45%.

In the privacy of the voting booth, most voters will ask themselves:

“Do I want 4 more years of THIS?”

And the answer is “NO!”

It’s gonna be a blowout, folks. Probably the voters don’t even know it yet.


11 posted on 10/15/2012 8:23:30 AM PDT by Uncle Miltie (You didn't build that. The private sector is doing fine. We tried our plan and it worked.)
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To: pgkdan
This country has become so stupid that even if Obama has a total meltdown in one of the next two debates, let's loose with a blue streak of profanity, strips naked, takes a crap on stage and eats it, he will still not drop below 45% of the popular vote.
12 posted on 10/15/2012 8:25:12 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: Vigilanteman
I agree totally. We have reached what the movie “Idiocracy” is all about. There are so many Obama voters out there that there is absolutely NOTHING that would cause them to change their vote. Even among the church going folks, if Obama came out as the Anti-Christ himself, these people would still be voting for Obama. They would simply deny that he said it and call us racist for pointing it out.
13 posted on 10/15/2012 8:35:13 AM PDT by Nevadan
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To: who knows what evil?
https://unskewedpolls.com
14 posted on 10/15/2012 8:36:46 AM PDT by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: Vigilanteman

Right now comon sense would tell most folks This will be a 52-47 election right now with Romney winning 290EVs on the low side and in the neighborhood of 325EV on a good night and winning control of the Senate. Barring some bombshell on Romney or some real implosion on the Dem side, I think the polls if you look at an aggregate and weigh them properly shows this. No sane person right now sees any path to an Obama victory. Its a matter of how big right now, not an if for Romney. In about 10 days the MSM will come to realization and get real despserate for Obama, reporting any rumor on R&R no matter now outrageous.


15 posted on 10/15/2012 8:41:45 AM PDT by pburgh01
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To: ken5050

Whatever, you/I/we believe, will only count in the final tally on Nov. 6th.. I’d rather believe we are 1% behind at the present time, and the final outcome we be determined by the extra folks that I bring to the polls on election day..

My single vote will be the determining factor in ridding this nation of the cancer that has infected our country for the past 4 years..

Our future rests entirely on my back, but I am getting old, so if you have any faith in providence, or the Murphy’s Law principle, maybe you should have a back-up plan, in the outside chance I’m wrong.. I know, right?.. :)


16 posted on 10/15/2012 8:42:29 AM PDT by carlo3b (Less Government, more Fiber..)
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To: Nevadan

Twenty years from now, “Idiocracy” will been seen as the “Citizen Kane” of our time. The first ten minutes of that movie are the best summation of our culture that I’ve seen put to film.


17 posted on 10/15/2012 8:42:41 AM PDT by pie_eater
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To: Vigilanteman

You’re right.


18 posted on 10/15/2012 8:48:00 AM PDT by pgkdan (A vote for anyone but Romney is a vote for obama. GO MITT!!)
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To: Nevadan
I agree totally. We have reached what the movie “Idiocracy” is all about.

"Go away, baitin'!"

19 posted on 10/15/2012 8:52:30 AM PDT by SIDENET ("If that's your best, your best won't do." -Dee Snider)
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To: pie_eater
Yes, “Idiocracy” is the most astute social commentary on film I have ever seen.
20 posted on 10/15/2012 9:00:41 AM PDT by Nevadan
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To: MuttTheHoople

Multiple different and historically reliable polls are showing this race to be close. Some Freepers are deluding themselves that it is otherwise and that most of America thinks like they do. No, only about 35-40% think like we do. Forty-five percent are lunatic white and Asian leftists, unionists, blacks, Hispanics, homosexuals and slackers who never will vote for a Republican. We start from behind and he have to work harder to win. Go out and vote! This will be CLOSE.


21 posted on 10/15/2012 9:02:35 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: pie_eater
One of the many reasons I like FR is that the members already know and understand nuances such as the genius that was Idiocracy.
22 posted on 10/15/2012 9:05:08 AM PDT by Stat-boy
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To: HamiltonJay
Months ago, my hubby turned to me and said he thought that the Republican (this was before Romney clinched the nom) would beat Obama in a landslide.

Now, I would love to see that; but, I am a pessimist at heart and I know that a good portion of the American public simply do not think very well, and they will vote for Obama.

Lately, however, I have been becoming a little more optimistic and think that hubby may have been correct. Here's hope'n that he is correct and our "long national nightmare" will soon be over.

23 posted on 10/15/2012 9:07:54 AM PDT by LibertarianLiz
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To: Gay State Conservative

Don’t see any way Mitt gets to 350, but 320 is a very outside shot.


24 posted on 10/15/2012 9:09:12 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Izzy Dunne; ken5050
I would like for FR to be a POLL-FREE WEBSITE until the election

OK, everybody - vote:

Poll-Free Republic: 1 (ken5050) Free Republic: 1 (Izzy Dunne)

I would would like some polling volunteers, as I would like to conduct a poll on the probable outcome of this vote.

25 posted on 10/15/2012 9:10:42 AM PDT by Colorado Doug (Now I know how the Indians felt to be sold out for a few beads and trinkets)
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To: pburgh01
Barring some bombshell on Romney

I remember when I heard that Obama really "hated" Mitt Romney. I couldn't really understand why, as I don't think they have had much contact with one another. Then, it dawned on me. Obama's tactic for winning elections has always centered on digging up dirt on his opponent and pushing it out there with the help of the media. Well, Mitt Romeny doesn't really have "dirt" on him. He is a Mormon. He is boring. And, I think this really ticks off the 'O' because he loses his "edge" against someone who has lived an exemplary life.

26 posted on 10/15/2012 9:12:23 AM PDT by LibertarianLiz
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To: HamiltonJay
could be he will not get as much as Hoover did in 1938

Ol' Herb didn't get hardly no votes in 1938.

27 posted on 10/15/2012 9:23:26 AM PDT by MARTIAL MONK (I'm waiting for the POP!)
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To: LibertarianLiz

Obama had no chance of re-election.

You cannot have real unemployment at 15% for 4 years and think its going to be close, this was all a dillusion created by his accomplices in the MSM.

Once Romney was able to be seen first hand without filter, and Obama was seen without teleprompter or post editing, which is what happened in the debate in Colorado Obama was done. He was done long before that, but in 90 minutes Romney countered 4+ years of manufactured nonsense and billions of dollars of Propoganda.. and he did it by simply showing up.

Obama never had a prayer for re-election. Obama rode to the white house on a combination of Anti-Clinton sentiment among democrats, and anti-Bush/Bush Fatique among the general population. Obama didn’t win the election because he was OBAMA, he won because he was the non Bush. Now he is up for re-election and he cant just say hope and change and attack an incumbent and say anything witn no record to back it up... he has to own what he has done, and he can’t do that because what he has done has been abject failure.

The election is, was and always will be a referendum on Obama and that is a vote he never had a prayer of winning.

He can’t get re-elected in any way other than BEING OBAMA, and the fact is OBAMA doesn’t sell... never did. He thought it did, because he’s an arrogant fool.. but no one ever supported Obama because he was Obama.. how could they? he had no record, and nothing to give them reason to support him.. he never built consensus in his life, never accomplished anything in the face of adversity.. He’s just took advantage of an opportunity, nothing more. Then he wasted that opportunity by pushing what he wanted, not what was needed, and only did that by thuggery and complete control of the congress.. once his party lost control he accomplished NOTHING, because he has no idea how to lead or how to govern.. Watching this buffoon and yes he is a complete buffoon trying to engage in politics is like trying to watch a fish ride a bicycle. Never has there been ANYONE to be so far above their abilities in US Politics in the history of this nation... and in less than a month, he’ll know he’s done and will likely try to push through crap before he is retired in January to Hawaii.

His legacy is one of EPIC FAILURE. The likes of which the US has NEVER seen in politics. Someone unfit to be elected Dog Catcher was put in the White House, and we will have to deal with the consequences of that for at least 2 decades.


28 posted on 10/15/2012 9:54:07 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: MARTIAL MONK

Hoover got 39.something percent of the popular vote, and I don’t know if it was the worst schelacking of an incumbent president in US history, it is certainly a feat that hasn’t been duplicated since. In fact incumbents losing re-election bids are very rare in the modern era.. Obama however truly could face a drubbing as bad if not worse than Hoovers.

I think Obama probably won’t end up as bad as Hoover, but its certainly possible. I do think that he has an absolute MAX on his best day of no more than 42-43% of the vote.


29 posted on 10/15/2012 9:57:33 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: HamiltonJay

Hoover ran in 1928 and 1932. There was no presidential election in 1938.


30 posted on 10/15/2012 10:20:36 AM PDT by MARTIAL MONK (I'm waiting for the POP!)
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To: HamiltonJay

Can you be sure that Big Ears won’t have the questions leaked to him? Don’t discount it.


31 posted on 10/15/2012 10:24:06 AM PDT by Digger (A)
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To: MARTIAL MONK

It was a typo.. Clearly I was discussing Hoover in 1932


32 posted on 10/15/2012 10:47:08 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: HamiltonJay

Agreed. I’m thinking Romney 55 Obama 45


33 posted on 10/15/2012 10:51:39 AM PDT by GilGil
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To: Digger

It DOESN’T matter if Obama has the questions leaked.. the guy is done.. Its been obvious in every poll conducted that the electorate has written this guy off. This happened LONG before the election cycle began.

All they needed to know was the guy they were going to replace him with wasn’t worse than the guy they want to replace. Obama and his minions spent hundreds of millions of dollars to try to convince the electorate that Romney was worse than he was... and inside of a few minutes of unedited live side by side, the electorate decided, yep, this guy is fine.

Obama can’t recork the bottle, the genie is out, even if Obama “wins” the debate this week, he’s not going to see a momentum change out of it. He’s been a dead man walking since before the cycle began.

Now I have no doubt Obama will do better this week than last time, because its a simpler format, there isn’t supposed to be follow up questioning and he can just smile and say whatever he wants and we all know the audience will be overwhelmingly liberal and planted.

However even on his best day Obama is a LOUSY speaker.. he’s a great READER, but a horrible speaker. Go look at his debates 4 years ago.. he sucked, the problem was McCain wasn’t very good either. So you have 2 low to average people speaking and there is an overall momentum against the incumbent party, the challenger wins by default.

Now what is most likely to happen this debate and the next one, particularly if the momentum keeps going more and more Romney is that Obama will do like Biden and completely overplay is “agressive” hand and turn off more voters than he attracts. He may fire up his base, but will turn off far more of the independents than he’s already managed to piss off.

Now the press is reporting Obama is going to go for the jugular on Bain capital.. now I don’t know if this is true or misinformation, but given how poorly this topic did for him with his attack ads, do you really think its going to play outside his base in the debate??? He spent over 100 Million dollars trying to use that to destroy Romney and in the end it did nothing. If Obama goes there, and decides to go agressive and hard there, he’s only going to play to votes he’s already gotten.. It will have the same outcome as Biden.. more people net will move to Romney than to him.

Romney is not going to fall apart no matter what happens, he’s too smart and dedicated. Obama is relatively intelligent but incredibly lazy. Romney is very intelligent and has a WORK ETHIC. Obama will not best him.

I am sure Obama thinks he will, but of course this is the same guy who thought he won the first debate too.

I don’t expect this debate to do much if anything other than perhaps fire up the democratic base, but if you are still pandering to your base 3 weeks before election day, you are beyond a lost cause. Also in pandering to your base, you are going to likely turn off even more voters than you attract. Obama cannot win, he can’t run on his record, so all he can do is attempt to attack, and the attacks he’s using are ones that have had ZERO impact in the polls. 47 Percent did get a little needle movement, but not anything that’s going to shift the race if its repeated 200 times in 90 minutes.

My predictions re the town hall:

1) Fewer people will watch than the first one... The electorate made up its mind.. So Obama having a chance to turn the tide is reduced out of the gate no matter how well he does.

2) Obama will try to be more agressive and likely overplay it.

3) Press will proclaim Obama winner no matter what actually happens, because they want Obama to be in this race, and reality is he’s not and never was.

4) Democratic hard left base will get fired up, but overall momentum will not change.


34 posted on 10/15/2012 11:05:22 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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