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An Akin comeback?
Hotair ^ | 10/15/2012 | Ed Morrissey

Posted on 10/15/2012 9:04:01 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Nearly two months ago, Todd Akin bought time on Missouri television to ask forgiveness from voters over regrettable remarks he made about rape. Most scoffed that electoral forgiveness would be forthcoming, and predicted doom and defeat for Republicans in a Senate race most had assumed they would win against unpopular incumbent Claire McCaskill. As soon as it became impossible for Akin to withdraw, McCaskill began bombarding Akin with ads over his statement, and few gave Akin any hope for a comeback.

A new poll from Wenzel Strategies (via James Hohmann at Politico's Morning Score) might show a glimmer of that hope, however. The likely-voter survey puts Akin up four points over McCaskill, 48.9/44.7, with 87% of the vote firm. The sample on this poll has a D/R/I of 38/37/25, more Democratic than the 2010 midterm turnout in Missouri of 34/37/28, although not as Democratic as the 2008 turnout model of 40/34/26 that nonetheless gave John McCain a narrow win in the state.

However, a couple of points should be kept in mind. First, this is a poll conducted on behalf of a partisan client, Citizens United Political Victory Fund, and Wenzel does a lot of work for Republicans. We’d be suspicious of PPP polls, so it’s fair to note this. Second, the poll also shows Mitt Romney ahead of Barack Obama by almost 14 points, 54.9/41.1, while the RCP average for MO is Romney +5.2%. The last poll in that series, though, was conducted before the first debate, and it’s entirely possible that the race in Missouri has shifted significantly since. It’s worth noting that Obama’s favorability in the poll is 49.5/49.1, so it’s not as though this has an overwhelming tilt.

Peter Boyer at The Daily Beast says that counting out Akin at this point would be a mistake. So, too, would be counting out some high-profile Republican help for Akin in the final couple of weeks, for pragmatic purposes:

Yet less than a month before Election Day, Akin not only remains the Republican candidate to unseat Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill, but is actually within striking distance of what could be the election season’s most stunning victory. Though badly outspent by McCaskill, Akin is close enough in the polls that Real Clear Politics counts the race a tossup. Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.)—who’d been among those urging Akin to quit—now judges that “he very well may win.”

Once the late-September deadline for replacing Akin on the ballot passed, the Republican establishment seemed to realize that, like it or not (and mostly, it did not), Akin suddenly represented the party’s best chance for winning the Senate. There have been hints that big money may start flowing from the national party to Missouri—though Akin is not counting on it (“My guess is, some will, and some won’t”).

But even if Akin does ultimately get last-minute assistance from the national GOP, he will still, should he win, owe very little to his party’s establishment. That would be a rather unusual situation for a freshman senator. And it could allow him to become a uniquely powerful proponent for the Tea Party’s agenda on Capitol Hill—not to mention a serious headache for the Senate’s GOP leadership. “What I’ve found in politics is a simple thing: pretty soon there’s gonna be a bill, and they’re gonna want someone to vote for their bill, or against some other bill,” says Akin. “And they’ll be thinking, ‘Man, we’re a vote short, what are we gonna do? You mean we’re gonna have to go talk to him?’ Well, it depends on whether or not they want to win.”

At this point, why not pitch in? Akin’s the Republican candidate, and the race is definitely not lost. Romney doesn’t need the help in Missouri, but defeating McCaskill would be a huge boost to Republican hopes of controlling the Senate. Furthermore, the continued competitiveness of this race shows that the damage from the gaffe has receded. Thanks to McCaskill’s blanketing of the state on the gaffe, it’s done all the damage it could possibly do now. Those voters who might still change their minds won’t be changing horses based on that now.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: Missouri
KEYWORDS: akin; mccaskill; missouri; toddakin

1 posted on 10/15/2012 9:04:04 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Why not pitch in? The Rove-led GOP establishment wants their ilk to win, not conservatives.


2 posted on 10/15/2012 9:09:04 AM PDT by Ingtar (Everyone complains about the weather, but only Liberals try to legislate it.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Come back? Was he ever behind?


3 posted on 10/15/2012 9:11:56 AM PDT by Leep (Forward! to serfdom)
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To: SeekAndFind

McKaskell needs to GO. Rove and other IDIOT GOP bigshots need to wise up and start using PAC money to funnel support to him.

He said something stupid and apologized. He didn’t drive a woman he got pregnant into a pond while dead drunk and then leave her there to drown.

He didn’t send pictures of himself a la Weiner to somebody on the Internet.

He didn’t get involved with a male Congressional intern.

He wasn’t a serial sexual predator who profaned the Oval Office.

PERSPECTIVE!!!!!!!


4 posted on 10/15/2012 9:12:32 AM PDT by ZULU (See video: http://gatesofvienna.blogspot.com/2012/09/the-first-siege-of-vienna.html)
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To: Leep

RE: Come back? Was he ever behind?

If we are to believe the polls, he was behind by 10 the weeks after he made the “legitimate rape” gaffe.


5 posted on 10/15/2012 9:16:45 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

McCaskill is in trouble. Has a commercial with a supposed right leaning pro-life rape victim supporting her. There are even PACs running ads. So, if she is a lock to win, why is she running desperate commercials and PACs involved?


6 posted on 10/15/2012 9:19:14 AM PDT by 11th Commandment (http://www.thirty-thousand.org/)
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To: 11th Commandment
Has a commercial with a supposed right leaning pro-life rape victim supporting her.

Those ads were beyond disgusting! "Hi, I am "pro-life" but I am going to support the pro-abortion Claire McCaskill and her party that is rabidly pro-death!"

7 posted on 10/15/2012 9:27:43 AM PDT by missnry (The truth will set you free ... and drive liberals crazy!)
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To: ZULU

The problem is on a national level. Democrats all over are using Akin as part of their “GOP = war against women” strategy.


8 posted on 10/15/2012 9:28:47 AM PDT by ari-freedom
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To: Ingtar

“Why not pitch in? The Rove-led GOP establishment wants their ilk to win, not conservatives.”
*********************************************************************

Quite right folks—contribute and/or volunteer if you can.

http://www.akin.org/


9 posted on 10/15/2012 9:32:02 AM PDT by House Atreides
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To: SeekAndFind

The moderate bed wetters aren’t gonna like this...


10 posted on 10/15/2012 9:33:54 AM PDT by skeeter
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To: SeekAndFind

Well, I raked Akin over the coals back when he made his “comment.” And frankly it’s not like he didn’t deserve all the flak, for the sheer political ineptitude of making the most skin-crawlingly grotesque mistatement of the year.

But he’ll be a solid conservative vote, and I sure hope he prevails against Rove and all the other degenerate scumbags of the GOP-E, who’ve been doing everything they can to undermine actual conservatives in the Party. Anything to put a dagger in the skull of those bastards is a cause for celebration.


11 posted on 10/15/2012 9:38:42 AM PDT by greene66
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To: ari-freedom

My daughter has a friend who swears that Mitt Romney said a woman can choose whether to get pregnant after being raped - says she heard it on the NEWS so it has to be true. We’ve tried explaining to her that the person they were talking about was Todd Akin not Romney, and that he never said there was a conscious choice of anything. But she has to believe “the news” - even if they are dead wrong on every fact this girl thinks she heard.

The problem isn’t Akin, although he could have been more careful in what he said and how he said it. The problem is a media that lies, and people who believe them even when they are shown to be liars.


12 posted on 10/15/2012 9:48:27 AM PDT by butterdezillion
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To: greene66

“Well, I raked Akin over the coals back when he made his “comment.””

“I sure hope he prevails against Rove and all the other degenerate scumbags of the GOP-E, who’ve been doing everything they can to undermine actual conservatives in the Party.”

LOTS of people were doing “everything they can to undermine” Akin who have now turned tail and run back. Sorta like you?


13 posted on 10/15/2012 10:00:43 AM PDT by battletank
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To: Ingtar

There is a picture for smug in the dictionary, and it’s of Karl Rove!


14 posted on 10/15/2012 10:16:45 AM PDT by IslamE (epiphany)
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To: battletank

“turned tail and run back”...?

No, I still think Akin is pretty much a damned doofus as a politician.

But the GOP-E is abject scum. Did anyone read the thread yesterday about a million being spent on Tisei, that gay-activist in Massachusetts running as the GOP candidate for Congress? Big supporter of gay-marriage. Yep, the GOP-E supports and funds this sick perv, while treating actual conservatives (both social and Tea Party types) like diseased cretins. Anything that is a defeat for the GOP-E, like an Akin win, is a victory as far as I’m concerned. As far as the GOP-E, I’d like to collectively see their blasted necks broken.


15 posted on 10/15/2012 10:23:09 AM PDT by greene66
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To: ari-freedom

I know. I guess women will have to choose between the state paying for an abortion and the state blocking life-saving medical care for the elderly or people with long term physical problems (Obamacare).


16 posted on 10/15/2012 10:45:36 AM PDT by ZULU (See video: http://gatesofvienna.blogspot.com/2012/09/the-first-siege-of-vienna.html)
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To: Ingtar

But we are not going to let the GOP establishment win.


17 posted on 10/15/2012 11:06:25 AM PDT by Maryhere ("HE comes to rule the earth")
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To: SeekAndFind

“But even if Akin does ultimately get last-minute assistance from the national GOP, he will still, should he win, owe very little to his party’s establishment. That would be a rather unusual situation for a freshman senator. And it could allow him to become a uniquely powerful proponent for the Tea Party’s agenda on Capitol Hill—not to mention a serious headache for the Senate’s GOP leadership.”

Beautiful, ain’t it?

Go Todd GO!!


18 posted on 10/15/2012 11:36:42 AM PDT by RKBA Democrat (Leftists are the small hive beetles of the American hive)
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To: butterdezillion

I happened to be watching the Akin interview that Sunday morning and was not taken aback by his “notorious comments”. I understood Akin’s words to imply forced rape, as opposed to statutory rape.

And as a woman, I understand the complex female reproductive system and am aware that impending ovulation may possibly be delayed or halted during an occurrence of stress or trauma. This could certainly include the horror of rape. For those who still question the rational of Akin’s tenet, there are medical sources to substantiate his comments…….

Important Facts to Know About Ovulation:
An egg (ovum) lives 12-24 hours after leaving the ovary.
Normally only one egg is released each time of ovulation.
Ovulation can be affected by stress, illness or disruption of normal routines.
http://netwellness.org/healthtopics/pregnancy/pregmenstrualcycle.cfm

Stress can definitely interfere with conception.
That’s because stress can affect the functioning of the hypothalamus — the gland in the brain that regulates your appetite and emotions, as well as the hormones that tell your ovaries to release eggs. If you’re stressed out, you may ovulate later in your cycle or not at all.
It’s important to differentiate between constant and sudden stress. The body often acclimates to constant, everyday stresses, so you’ll probably ovulate fairly consistently each cycle. It’s sudden stress — a death in the family, an accident, divorce — that can throw your cycle off and interfere with ovulation.
Toni Weschler
Fertility Educator
http://www.babycenter.com/404_can-stress-get-in-the-way-of-getting-pregnant_1336350.bc

The Science of Stress and Fertility
Pisarska tells WebMD that the effects of stress may be different for each woman.
“Stress may cause one set of reactions in one woman, and something else in another, so ultimately the reasons behind how or why stress impacts fertility may also be very individual,” says Pisarska.
While doctors may not know the exact links between stress and fertility, a series of studies shows the impact is hard to ignore.
http://www.webmd.com/infertility-and-reproduction/features/infertility-stress

Stress and Fertility
By Michael C. Darder, MD & Susan L. Treiser, MD, PhD
Q. Can emotional stress affect fertility?
A. Severe stress can prevent ovulation, and that, of course, makes it impossible to get pregnant. Significant stress can affect the hormones in the brain that direct egg development; the eggs stop growing and there’s no ovulation.
http://www.conceiveonline.com/articles/stress-and-fertility

Todd Akin’s gaffe was not worthy of destruction of his political career. He did not do anything illegal or immoral or malicious. He did not deliberately disparage women who were impregnated by rape. His words were sadly misconstrued by some people and deliberately distorted by political operatives in efforts to affect the November election.


19 posted on 10/15/2012 1:29:19 PM PDT by Jonah Vark (Any 5th grader knows that the Constitution declares the separation of powers.)
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To: Jonah Vark

I agree.

Either the media doesn’t know the difference between conscious choices and basic physiological chemistry, or they chose to distort what Akin said. Whether it was incompetence or deliberate misreporting, the effect is the same: people who wouldn’t think twice about reading the kinds of sources like you cited all of a sudden think those medical statements are terribly controversial.

The same thing happens when people say they believe that homosexuality is not caused by genetics - and it gets twisted into meaning that the person says people consciously choose to be homosexual. Twins studies have pretty much shown that while there is probably a genetic component to homosexuality, “nature” doesn’t explain the differences between identical twins. “Nurture” clearly has an impact. That doesn’t mean that a person consciously chooses to be homosexual. It may mean that there is a non-conscious response to something - something the person may not even consciously remember. The same thing happens in a variety of situations. Abused children don’t consciously choose to be drawn to abusers as adults - but it happens, over and over again, because there’s something subconscious going on. If the person was aware of it they could deal with it; part of the problem is that it ISN’T a conscious choice.

In so many instances, the science gets trumped by politics, and the media people are the great spoilers, who take what is said and turn it into something else, in order to cause rifts between people who might otherwise stand together.


20 posted on 10/15/2012 4:46:46 PM PDT by butterdezillion
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To: butterdezillion
OK explain to me the evolutionary advantage for an organism to retain in its genes a behavior that discourages reproduction! It seems to me that behavior over time would move toward extinction.
21 posted on 10/15/2012 4:51:22 PM PDT by Reily (l)
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To: battletank
Yep. Lots of einsteins right here who were so wise they just knew for certain that Akin was dead meat, and anyone who supported him was a toothless hillbilly knuckledragger who hated women.
22 posted on 10/15/2012 4:59:48 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: Reily

Another reason why the genetic theory doesn’t make sense. But in matters where emotions come into play, real science doesn’t matter. And that’s the part that is really frustrating, about so many issues. Facts don’t matter, and when we get that post-modern, all that’s left is for the craziness to turn everybody crazy.


23 posted on 10/15/2012 5:50:54 PM PDT by butterdezillion
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