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ARG VA Poll R 48% O 47%

Posted on 10/15/2012 9:38:42 AM PDT by Perdogg

ARG VA Poll R 48% O 47%

The party ID is D +5 (Dem 40, Rep 35, Ind 25) which compares to 2008 of D +6 (Dem 39, Rep 33, Ind 27) and 2004 of R +4 (Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26).


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; va2012

1 posted on 10/15/2012 9:38:49 AM PDT by Perdogg
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To: SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ...

ping


2 posted on 10/15/2012 9:40:11 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Perdogg
You forgot this.
3 posted on 10/15/2012 9:43:04 AM PDT by Hoodat ("As for God, His way is perfect" - Psalm 18:30)
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To: Perdogg

Wonderful. Suffolk was right.


4 posted on 10/15/2012 9:43:36 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Hoodat
Wow. A 1-point Romney lead with a 5 point D oversample.

Concerned about NV poll from Suffolk five days ago giving Obama a 2-point lead in NV.

5 posted on 10/15/2012 9:45:43 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS

The Nevada poll was a registered voter poll with party ID D +8 (Dem 41, Rep 33, Ind 23). Not enough Independents in the survey. In 2008 it was D +8 (Dem 38 Rep 30, Ind 32) and in 2004 it was R +4 (Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26).


6 posted on 10/15/2012 9:49:25 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Perdogg

Holy crap. So, based on (yes, select) recent polls, Romney is up 4 in NH, up in VA, probably up in NV and IA, and down 2-3 in PA?


7 posted on 10/15/2012 9:52:05 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Mad Dawg; EDINVA; JPG; Hawthorn; Paisan; VA_Gentleman; seekthetruth; COBOL2Java; Perdogg; kabar; ...

VA Ping!

If you want on/off the VA Ping List, please freepmail me.

If you see posts of interest to Virginians, please ping me.

Thanks!


8 posted on 10/15/2012 9:53:17 AM PDT by randita
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To: SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ...

This is what I have so far.

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=IBV


9 posted on 10/15/2012 9:58:43 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Perdogg
This poll does not take into account a 3rd party candidate.  Enter Vigil Goode.

Many say Goode will not strip votes away from Romney.  I dissagree.  Goode is gonna have "Constitution Pary" written next to his name as his political affiliation.  How many low information conservatives our there who are fed up with the RINO situation will get excited about seeing a "Constitution Party" candidate and suddenly pull the lever for the awesome prospect of a Constitution Party guy? 

Goode may as well have "Tea Party" written beside his name on the ballot.  It's gonna have the same result.

 

_____________________________________


10 posted on 10/15/2012 10:02:04 AM PDT by CaptainKrunch (Freedom does not promise safety and security, freedom only promises freedom.)
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To: LS

I would say personally PA is a few points at best for Obama.. if there is a state that I honestly believe is neck and neck right now, I’d say its PA, with Romney having the clear momentum.

However Romney has not really made a play for PA... he’s got a better ground game than McCain ever had, but the airwaves here have been dead silent and other than Ann showing up today he’s not visiting the state... Obviously Romney doesn’t need PA to win, so I can understannd from a strategic perspective what he is doing, but PA is in PLAY, if Romney wants to fight for it.

The fact PA is in play even with Romney not visiting or buying ads, tells me all I need to know and has always told me all I need to know about this race, and that’s that Obama has no chance. All this its a tight race is manufactured nonsense.

Fight like its neck and neck, but don’t buy into it folks, OBama will not get over 42-43% on election day MAX.

I am telling folks who ask me, simply this, look at what Romney does with PA.. IF you see Romney suddenly buying ads in PA and visiting PA, it means his campaign knows without any question they have the overall race won.

The only other reason to play PA would be they feel they’ve lost OHIO and are desperate to make it up, and reality is if you lose OH you aren’t going to be able to carry PA... OH is without question the easier state to get as a Republican, with no PHilly skewing the vote 5-8 points democratic.

I’m pleased to see Ann visiting, that’s a sign to me that they are pretty confident they have it locked up, would rather it be Romney, because that would be a nail in the coffin.. but its a good sign she was here and not in OH or FL.


11 posted on 10/15/2012 10:20:13 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: Perdogg

RE: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=IBV

Hmmm.... the map in the above link has Romney now winning OH and IA... This inspite of the close “dead heat” polls we’ve been seeing.

As the conventional wisdom goes -— As goes Ohio, so goes the Presidency.


12 posted on 10/15/2012 10:49:03 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: CaptainKrunch

The last VA poll I saw showed Goode getting 1% of the vote. If VA hadn’t gone for the Dem for the first time since 1964, you might see some protest votes cast, but I don’t think it’ll happen to any significant degree this year. It’s too close/tight a race.


13 posted on 10/15/2012 11:12:47 AM PDT by EDINVA (I)
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To: SeekAndFind

This is my prediction.


14 posted on 10/15/2012 11:15:06 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: HamiltonJay
but PA is in PLAY, if Romney wants to fight for it.

Romney will visit PA after the last debate if he feels he's got OH, VA buttoned up.

We'll see more of him in MI, NV, Iowa also.

15 posted on 10/15/2012 12:11:57 PM PDT by what's up
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To: what's up

I agree, and have stated as much, I used what Romney does in PA as a bellweather. If you see a big ad buy in PA and/or Romney visiting here more than a token stop through you know his campaign knows the election is in the bag.


16 posted on 10/15/2012 1:04:28 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: randita

Not nearly enough outside of the margin of fraud from Northern VA precincts late on election night. Romney needs to ‘really’ win by at least 3 points to make it a very narrow victory!


17 posted on 10/15/2012 1:56:48 PM PDT by KoRn (Department of Homeland Security, Certified - "Right Wing Extremist")
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