Skip to comments.ARG VA Poll R 48% O 47%
Posted on 10/15/2012 9:38:42 AM PDT by Perdogg
ARG VA Poll R 48% O 47%
The party ID is D +5 (Dem 40, Rep 35, Ind 25) which compares to 2008 of D +6 (Dem 39, Rep 33, Ind 27) and 2004 of R +4 (Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26).
Wonderful. Suffolk was right.
Concerned about NV poll from Suffolk five days ago giving Obama a 2-point lead in NV.
The Nevada poll was a registered voter poll with party ID D +8 (Dem 41, Rep 33, Ind 23). Not enough Independents in the survey. In 2008 it was D +8 (Dem 38 Rep 30, Ind 32) and in 2004 it was R +4 (Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26).
Holy crap. So, based on (yes, select) recent polls, Romney is up 4 in NH, up in VA, probably up in NV and IA, and down 2-3 in PA?
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This is what I have so far.
I would say personally PA is a few points at best for Obama.. if there is a state that I honestly believe is neck and neck right now, I’d say its PA, with Romney having the clear momentum.
However Romney has not really made a play for PA... he’s got a better ground game than McCain ever had, but the airwaves here have been dead silent and other than Ann showing up today he’s not visiting the state... Obviously Romney doesn’t need PA to win, so I can understannd from a strategic perspective what he is doing, but PA is in PLAY, if Romney wants to fight for it.
The fact PA is in play even with Romney not visiting or buying ads, tells me all I need to know and has always told me all I need to know about this race, and that’s that Obama has no chance. All this its a tight race is manufactured nonsense.
Fight like its neck and neck, but don’t buy into it folks, OBama will not get over 42-43% on election day MAX.
I am telling folks who ask me, simply this, look at what Romney does with PA.. IF you see Romney suddenly buying ads in PA and visiting PA, it means his campaign knows without any question they have the overall race won.
The only other reason to play PA would be they feel they’ve lost OHIO and are desperate to make it up, and reality is if you lose OH you aren’t going to be able to carry PA... OH is without question the easier state to get as a Republican, with no PHilly skewing the vote 5-8 points democratic.
I’m pleased to see Ann visiting, that’s a sign to me that they are pretty confident they have it locked up, would rather it be Romney, because that would be a nail in the coffin.. but its a good sign she was here and not in OH or FL.
Hmmm.... the map in the above link has Romney now winning OH and IA... This inspite of the close “dead heat” polls we’ve been seeing.
As the conventional wisdom goes -— As goes Ohio, so goes the Presidency.
The last VA poll I saw showed Goode getting 1% of the vote. If VA hadn’t gone for the Dem for the first time since 1964, you might see some protest votes cast, but I don’t think it’ll happen to any significant degree this year. It’s too close/tight a race.
This is my prediction.
Romney will visit PA after the last debate if he feels he's got OH, VA buttoned up.
We'll see more of him in MI, NV, Iowa also.
I agree, and have stated as much, I used what Romney does in PA as a bellweather. If you see a big ad buy in PA and/or Romney visiting here more than a token stop through you know his campaign knows the election is in the bag.
Not nearly enough outside of the margin of fraud from Northern VA precincts late on election night. Romney needs to ‘really’ win by at least 3 points to make it a very narrow victory!
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