Skip to comments.TIPP Daily Tracking Poll: R-47/O-47 (D +7 Sampling)
Posted on 10/15/2012 11:08:29 AM PDT by tatown
A razor-thin margin separated Obama and Romney in the latest poll. Obama's 46.9% is statistically no different than Romney's 46.6%, given the 3.5-percentage point margin of error. Latest data show Romney improving among women, with Obama's edge among that large voting bloc falling from 10-percentage points in our Sunday poll to just 4-percentage points on Monday. Likewise, Obama's huge 81 point advantage among Blacks and Hispanics shrank back to 72 points on Monday. Independents remain solidly in Romney's camp, giving him an 8-point lead, virtually unchanged in recent days. For the first time since the tracking poll began a week ago, more voters (75%) for Romney than for Obama (73%) were described as "strong" in their intensity of choice this presidential election.
(Excerpt) Read more at tipponline.com ...
Obama is only up 4 among women, and down 8 among independents yet the top line number is tied. My gut tells me that the oversample must be around D+8.
37% Dem, 30% GOP, 32% Ind
Large Dem oversample and based on article appears Obama had a great day of polling that is leveling off. Overall a good poll for us.
This poll is a 6 day tracker with a ridiculously small sample size.
Bwa hahaha. I can hear Don Meredith singing in the background.
Any dropoff in O's numbers and their money dries up.
There have been a lot of interesting poll internals that show Obama only getting 85-86% of the black vote. At first glance 85% sounds good but when you are talking about the Democrat black vote that is a devastating number. Obama in 2008 had 96%. For Democrats to win states like OH, FL, PA, MI, NC they count on 92+ % of the black vote and high turnout in the urban centers of those states. Anything less than 90% and they simply can’t overcome the non urban electorates preference for the GOP. Not only are Obama’s numbers with black voter too low, but the black turnout is not going to be anywhere near 2008 levels. A landslide is coming. :) :)
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