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Tied in Iowa (Romney 48% - Obama 48%) - American Research Group (ARG)
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/IA12.html ^ | 15 October 2012

Posted on 10/15/2012 11:13:18 AM PDT by Yashcheritsiy

Interview dates: October 11-14, 2012

Sample size: 600 likely voters

Margin of error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time

Question wording and responses:

If the general election were being held today between Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans, for whom would you vote - Obama and Biden or Romney and Ryan (names rotated), or someone else?

(Excerpt) Read more at americanresearchgroup.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; ia2012
Demos at link - look pretty reasonable.

This poll is big, big news, because this is further indication of a shift to Romney in Iowa. While Iowa only has 6 EVs, they would make a welcome addition in an already tight EV race.

Further, if Iowa (a purplish state) is starting to swing toward Obama, then this is likely indicative of the same sort of swing in other states with large blue-collar populations, like Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

1 posted on 10/15/2012 11:13:25 AM PDT by Yashcheritsiy
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To: LS; Perdogg

Poll ping!


2 posted on 10/15/2012 11:14:21 AM PDT by Yashcheritsiy (It's time to make Obama a minor footnote in the pages of history)
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To: Yashcheritsiy

Those five states helped put the usurper in office last time.


3 posted on 10/15/2012 11:17:40 AM PDT by bgill
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To: Yashcheritsiy
Slanted pretty hard towards females (54%).

Whites (92%) too, but I guess that's Iowa - couldn't scare up a single Asian or Hispanic!

4 posted on 10/15/2012 11:19:03 AM PDT by dead (It ain't over until the phone lady sings.)
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To: Yashcheritsiy

I see RCP now shows PA and MI as tossups. One can only hope.


5 posted on 10/15/2012 11:22:51 AM PDT by Hugin ("Most times a man'll tell you his bad intentions, if you listen and let yourself hear."---Open Range)
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To: Yashcheritsiy

I have said for a long time, Obama is done in the rust belt. I fully expect Romney to win IA, IN, WI and OH

MI and PA are the battleground

MN and IL will likely stay blue.


6 posted on 10/15/2012 11:23:45 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: Yashcheritsiy

I never understood why Iowa was a RAT state.


7 posted on 10/15/2012 11:29:51 AM PDT by ozzymandus
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To: dead

Iowa is about 93% white, 3% black, 5% Hispanic and 2% Asian (there are obviously overlaps, since those add up to over 100%) but you get the idea.

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/19000.html


8 posted on 10/15/2012 11:33:22 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: ozzymandus

I never understood why Iowa was a RAT state.


Sucking at the government ethanol subsidy tit.


9 posted on 10/15/2012 11:40:07 AM PDT by Atlas Sneezed (Hold My Beer and Watch This!)
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To: ozzymandus

Farm subsidies.


10 posted on 10/15/2012 11:45:03 AM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Yashcheritsiy

Iowa is a must-win. It’s hard to see how Romney can get a majority in the Electoral College without Iowa.


11 posted on 10/15/2012 11:46:44 AM PDT by Kevin C
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To: Kevin C
It’s hard to see how Romney can get a majority in the Electoral College without Iowa.

By winning Wisconsin OR Colorado OR New Hampshire OR Nevada.

If Romney sweeps FL-VA-OH he has 266 and only needs 4 more.

12 posted on 10/15/2012 11:59:55 AM PDT by Skulllspitter
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To: Arthurio

Explain Kansas then.....never votes Dem.


13 posted on 10/15/2012 12:02:50 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: rwfromkansas

Kansas will not go dem because as a voting block, we are strong, smart, independent and don’t need no Obama Phones. LOL


14 posted on 10/15/2012 12:28:45 PM PDT by navymom1
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To: Yashcheritsiy

I don’t understand how even one citizen could vote for this guy, let alone in places like Iowa.

You have to be blind deaf and dumb to think this guy is good for the United States.


15 posted on 10/15/2012 12:34:04 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (We should ignore the absurd peripheral, and focus on the absurd Obama. People died. He lied!)
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To: rwfromkansas

People make a lot of the farm vote and it does exist as a factor in some of those plains states but the thing to remember about farmers is that there really aren’t that many of them. Grain farming is a low labor, high capital business. For every farmer or farm worker in IA there are probably a dozen guys working factories in the Quad Cities. In Kansas you don’t have nearly the number of city/labor folks. That’s why Kansas is always the reddest of reds and IA is squishy.


16 posted on 10/15/2012 12:47:17 PM PDT by azcap (Who is John Galt ? www.conservativeshirts.com)
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To: Yashcheritsiy

Big Headline- 3 weeks until election and Obama can not break 50%. In 2004, with a Republican in office, the press jumped all over any poll that had GWB below 50% even if he was beating Kerry.


17 posted on 10/15/2012 12:51:46 PM PDT by 11th Commandment (http://www.thirty-thousand.org/)
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To: ozzymandus
I never understood why Iowa was a RAT state.

Well, you know what Iowa stands for, right?

18 posted on 10/15/2012 12:59:42 PM PDT by Yashcheritsiy (It's time to make Obama a minor footnote in the pages of history)
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To: ozzymandus

me too I don;t get why it;s a rat state, same really for any state in that area.


19 posted on 10/15/2012 1:54:34 PM PDT by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: ozzymandus

[ I never understood why Iowa was a RAT state. ]

I don’t get it either.


20 posted on 10/15/2012 2:20:36 PM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obamar)
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To: Yashcheritsiy

Idiots Out Walking Around? (I’m just the messenger)


21 posted on 10/15/2012 2:22:07 PM PDT by GnL
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To: rwfromkansas

[ Explain Kansas then.....never votes Dem. ]

Cuz we’re smart here.

Uhhh....nevermind. We elected Sebelius twice.


22 posted on 10/15/2012 2:24:14 PM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obamar)
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To: rwfromkansas

Iowa is almost nothing to do with ethanol. Catholic voters in Iowa put Dems over the top. Dems slip with Catholics in general and Iowa goes GOP.


23 posted on 10/15/2012 2:33:00 PM PDT by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: Kevin C

“Iowa is a must-win. It’s hard to see how Romney can get a majority in the Electoral College without Iowa.”

He could do it, IF he had Ohio. With Ohio, Romney would not need either Iowa or Colorado.

However, without Ohio, Iowa -and- Colorado become VERY important, as they will provide the electoral votes Romney needs to get over the top. (This assumes Romney also gets New Hampshire, which seems to be leaning in his favor).

Ohio still remains “the key”. If Romney wins it before midnight, the election will be his.


24 posted on 10/15/2012 3:49:39 PM PDT by Road Glide
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To: Road Glide

Based on the RCP map, Romney can lose Ohio, Penn., Wisconsin and Michigan and still win the election if he gets Colorado, Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire. He only needs to win ONE of those 4 if he gets Ohio or Penn. though. Something tells me he should bombard Iowa and New Hampshire, and use the Mormon leverage in Colorado and Nevada, rather than pin his hopes on Ohio. The industrial states seem to be giving Romney a harder time.


25 posted on 10/15/2012 3:57:56 PM PDT by JediJones (ROMNEY/RYAN: TURNAROUND ARTISTS ***** OBAMA/BIDEN: BULL $HIT ARTISTS)
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To: Yashcheritsiy

If Iowa turns Romney,I’d be surprised.A lot of people I grew up there are brainwashed Obominoids.They worship him like a god.You can’t talk any sense to them,they just plug their ears and scream”I CAN’T HEAR YOU,LA LA LA LA!”Hopeless cause.Glad I left that shithole years ago.


26 posted on 10/15/2012 4:00:56 PM PDT by Uncle Meat
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To: Skulllspitter

Plus he’ll likely get one out of Maine as well. We may even get a surprise in the race for Senate and get a real conservative for a change.


27 posted on 10/15/2012 4:19:04 PM PDT by MSF BU (n)
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To: Yashcheritsiy
Well, you know what Iowa stands for, right?

I Owe the World Apologies?

28 posted on 10/15/2012 4:35:16 PM PDT by Big Giant Head
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To: Arthurio

I don’t really believe that. I’m a farmer in KS, and I don’t vote RAT to get handouts, and I only know one a-hole who does. And he’s a life-long RAT.


29 posted on 10/15/2012 4:37:34 PM PDT by ozzymandus
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To: Uncle Meat

I wouldn’t be that surprised to see Iowa go for Romney. After all, Iowa went for Bush in 2004.

I take Iowa as a quintessential purplish-blue state - so if it goes Iowa, or is even close, then it foresages a fairly hefty Romney win. Not a 56 state blowout, but a solid, unassailable win.


30 posted on 10/15/2012 5:26:30 PM PDT by Yashcheritsiy (It's time to make Obama a minor footnote in the pages of history)
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To: Beelzebubba
Sucking at the government ethanol subsidy tit.

Being an Iowan - I have to say that is a bit true, but from my observations and experience - not the driver by a long shot.

Iowa has four primary groups of voters. First - idiot liberals thinking that they are living in a left wing metropolis. This occurs in any metro area >100,000 people in Iowa, and in smaller communities that happen to have Univerisities, colleges, etc. These people are considered idiots around here but they make a lot of noise and get a lot of attention.

The second group is suburban voter. ABout 75% of them have brains, 25% dont as they are transplants from the first group who like to have some space at home when they get back from protesting urban sprawl. Unfortunately, there is another group of farm and blue collar based families and they vote democrat. They have absolutely no clue what the dems stand for today, but they vote dem anyway. Ethanol subsidies don't matter to them either. THey vote dem because they have always voted dem. THey have heartburn from the 80's farm crisis and blame it on Reagan. They are the thick skulls in the state. Smart, hardworiking, but unwilling to give up the past and open their eyes. They take a break from hunting to vote for Harkin while he works to take away their guns. THey are blind.

I hope my state can help kick O out of office, I'm just not confident.

31 posted on 10/15/2012 6:58:44 PM PDT by !1776!
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To: KansasGirl

Well I was talking about president. Grew up there....know isn’t the case locally.


32 posted on 10/15/2012 7:12:16 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: Yashcheritsiy

That was then,I’m talking about now.I was shocked to see how many of my old friends were so in your face pro gay marriage,anti rich,Romney lies,etc,etc on Facebook.I was viciously attacked on my wall by a neighbor girl I grew up with for posting anti Obama articles.As far as I’m concerned,I could care less if I ever go back to that hole.It’s become the California of the midwest.Too bad there’s not an ocean for it to fall into.


33 posted on 10/16/2012 2:32:58 AM PDT by Uncle Meat
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To: KansasGirl
Uhhh....nevermind. We elected Sebelius twice.

It's really weird. We have elected more than our share of Democrat governors. We seldom send a Democrat to Washington. Dennis Moore and Nancy Boyda would be the exceptions. I think it's because at the state level, they're better at hiding who they are. Kathleen Sebelius would get destroyed if she were to run for Senate, now that we see her for what she is.

34 posted on 10/16/2012 10:42:07 AM PDT by RPTMS
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To: ozzymandus
"I never understood why Iowa was a RAT state."

The eastern part of the state has historically had many unionized operations in the numerous small towns.

35 posted on 10/17/2012 9:01:00 PM PDT by Paladin2
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