Skip to comments.Tied in Iowa (Romney 48% - Obama 48%) - American Research Group (ARG)
Posted on 10/15/2012 11:13:18 AM PDT by Yashcheritsiy
Interview dates: October 11-14, 2012
Sample size: 600 likely voters
Margin of error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time
Question wording and responses:
If the general election were being held today between Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans, for whom would you vote - Obama and Biden or Romney and Ryan (names rotated), or someone else?
(Excerpt) Read more at americanresearchgroup.com ...
This poll is big, big news, because this is further indication of a shift to Romney in Iowa. While Iowa only has 6 EVs, they would make a welcome addition in an already tight EV race.
Further, if Iowa (a purplish state) is starting to swing toward Obama, then this is likely indicative of the same sort of swing in other states with large blue-collar populations, like Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
Those five states helped put the usurper in office last time.
Whites (92%) too, but I guess that's Iowa - couldn't scare up a single Asian or Hispanic!
I see RCP now shows PA and MI as tossups. One can only hope.
I have said for a long time, Obama is done in the rust belt. I fully expect Romney to win IA, IN, WI and OH
MI and PA are the battleground
MN and IL will likely stay blue.
I never understood why Iowa was a RAT state.
Iowa is about 93% white, 3% black, 5% Hispanic and 2% Asian (there are obviously overlaps, since those add up to over 100%) but you get the idea.
I never understood why Iowa was a RAT state.
Iowa is a must-win. It’s hard to see how Romney can get a majority in the Electoral College without Iowa.
By winning Wisconsin OR Colorado OR New Hampshire OR Nevada.
If Romney sweeps FL-VA-OH he has 266 and only needs 4 more.
Explain Kansas then.....never votes Dem.
Kansas will not go dem because as a voting block, we are strong, smart, independent and don’t need no Obama Phones. LOL
I don’t understand how even one citizen could vote for this guy, let alone in places like Iowa.
You have to be blind deaf and dumb to think this guy is good for the United States.
People make a lot of the farm vote and it does exist as a factor in some of those plains states but the thing to remember about farmers is that there really aren’t that many of them. Grain farming is a low labor, high capital business. For every farmer or farm worker in IA there are probably a dozen guys working factories in the Quad Cities. In Kansas you don’t have nearly the number of city/labor folks. That’s why Kansas is always the reddest of reds and IA is squishy.
Big Headline- 3 weeks until election and Obama can not break 50%. In 2004, with a Republican in office, the press jumped all over any poll that had GWB below 50% even if he was beating Kerry.
Well, you know what Iowa stands for, right?
me too I don;t get why it;s a rat state, same really for any state in that area.
[ I never understood why Iowa was a RAT state. ]
I don’t get it either.
Idiots Out Walking Around? (I’m just the messenger)
[ Explain Kansas then.....never votes Dem. ]
Cuz we’re smart here.
Uhhh....nevermind. We elected Sebelius twice.
Iowa is almost nothing to do with ethanol. Catholic voters in Iowa put Dems over the top. Dems slip with Catholics in general and Iowa goes GOP.
“Iowa is a must-win. Its hard to see how Romney can get a majority in the Electoral College without Iowa.”
He could do it, IF he had Ohio. With Ohio, Romney would not need either Iowa or Colorado.
However, without Ohio, Iowa -and- Colorado become VERY important, as they will provide the electoral votes Romney needs to get over the top. (This assumes Romney also gets New Hampshire, which seems to be leaning in his favor).
Ohio still remains “the key”. If Romney wins it before midnight, the election will be his.
Based on the RCP map, Romney can lose Ohio, Penn., Wisconsin and Michigan and still win the election if he gets Colorado, Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire. He only needs to win ONE of those 4 if he gets Ohio or Penn. though. Something tells me he should bombard Iowa and New Hampshire, and use the Mormon leverage in Colorado and Nevada, rather than pin his hopes on Ohio. The industrial states seem to be giving Romney a harder time.
If Iowa turns Romney,I’d be surprised.A lot of people I grew up there are brainwashed Obominoids.They worship him like a god.You can’t talk any sense to them,they just plug their ears and scream”I CAN’T HEAR YOU,LA LA LA LA!”Hopeless cause.Glad I left that shithole years ago.
Plus he’ll likely get one out of Maine as well. We may even get a surprise in the race for Senate and get a real conservative for a change.
I Owe the World Apologies?
I don’t really believe that. I’m a farmer in KS, and I don’t vote RAT to get handouts, and I only know one a-hole who does. And he’s a life-long RAT.
I wouldn’t be that surprised to see Iowa go for Romney. After all, Iowa went for Bush in 2004.
I take Iowa as a quintessential purplish-blue state - so if it goes Iowa, or is even close, then it foresages a fairly hefty Romney win. Not a 56 state blowout, but a solid, unassailable win.
Being an Iowan - I have to say that is a bit true, but from my observations and experience - not the driver by a long shot.
Iowa has four primary groups of voters. First - idiot liberals thinking that they are living in a left wing metropolis. This occurs in any metro area >100,000 people in Iowa, and in smaller communities that happen to have Univerisities, colleges, etc. These people are considered idiots around here but they make a lot of noise and get a lot of attention.
The second group is suburban voter. ABout 75% of them have brains, 25% dont as they are transplants from the first group who like to have some space at home when they get back from protesting urban sprawl. Unfortunately, there is another group of farm and blue collar based families and they vote democrat. They have absolutely no clue what the dems stand for today, but they vote dem anyway. Ethanol subsidies don't matter to them either. THey vote dem because they have always voted dem. THey have heartburn from the 80's farm crisis and blame it on Reagan. They are the thick skulls in the state. Smart, hardworiking, but unwilling to give up the past and open their eyes. They take a break from hunting to vote for Harkin while he works to take away their guns. THey are blind.
I hope my state can help kick O out of office, I'm just not confident.
Well I was talking about president. Grew up there....know isn’t the case locally.
That was then,I’m talking about now.I was shocked to see how many of my old friends were so in your face pro gay marriage,anti rich,Romney lies,etc,etc on Facebook.I was viciously attacked on my wall by a neighbor girl I grew up with for posting anti Obama articles.As far as I’m concerned,I could care less if I ever go back to that hole.It’s become the California of the midwest.Too bad there’s not an ocean for it to fall into.
It's really weird. We have elected more than our share of Democrat governors. We seldom send a Democrat to Washington. Dennis Moore and Nancy Boyda would be the exceptions. I think it's because at the state level, they're better at hiding who they are. Kathleen Sebelius would get destroyed if she were to run for Senate, now that we see her for what she is.
The eastern part of the state has historically had many unionized operations in the numerous small towns.