Skip to comments.Citizens United/Wenzel Strategies Poll: Romney, Mandel Take Lead in Ohio (2.96 MOE)
Posted on 10/15/2012 11:14:36 AM PDT by xzins
October 8th, 2012 by Fritz Wenzel OCTOBER 8, 2012-A NEW Wenzel Strategies survey of likely voterd in Ohio shows that Republican Mitt Romney has taken a small lead in the race for President, winning 48% compared to 47% support for Democrat Barack Obama. The poll carries a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.96 percentage points, making the race for the White House a statistical dead heat in the Buckeye State. In the race for the U.S. Senate, Republican challenger Josh Mandel edges out Democratic first-term incumbent Sherrod Brown by a 46% to 42% margin.
The survey includes 38% Democrats, 37% Republicans, and 25% independent voters.
Here is the Wenzel Strategies Polling Memorandum and Topline Report:
Ohio Statewide Survey Polling Memorandum 10-6-2012
Ohio Statewide Poll Topline Report 10-6-2012
Wenzel Strategies is a public opinion research firm, established in 2005 and based in Columbus, Ohio that works with political, business, non-profit, media, and government clients nationwide. It conducted a telephone survey of likely General Election voters in Ohio. The poll was fielded on Oct. 4-5, 2012, and included1072 respondents. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 2.96 percentage points.
The Citizens United Political Victory Fund/Wenzel Strategies survey of likely voters statewide in Ohio shows Republicans on the upsurge on the heels of the first presidential debate, and as voters in this key battleground state begin taking seriously the November election.
Republican U.S. Senate candidate Josh Mandel has a 46% to 42% lead over first-term incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown, with 13% undecided. This represents a break-out for Mandel, as Brown has led by a small margin in this race for months, other polling has shown.
In the race for President, the public opinion bounce from his strong debate performance last week in Denver has washed over Ohio Romney has moved ahead of Obama by a single-point, 48% to 47%, with 5% yet undecided. This survey includes a partisan sample of 38% Democrat, 37% Republican, and 25% independent voters.
Mandel, who features his military service prominently in his television advertising, holds a big 52% to 35% lead among men, while Brown leads by a 48% to 40% margin among women. Mandel, a resident of Cleveland who formerly represented a heavily Democrat legislative district in the state General Assembly, leads by a small margin in this northeastern Ohio region, winning 48% support, compared to 42% for Brown. Traditionally, for Democrats to win statewide races in Ohio, they must win northeast region of the state, which includes not only Cleveland, but also Akron, Canton, and Youngstown.
Romney leads Obama among Ohio men, 50% to 44%. Among women, Obama leads by a 51% to 47% margin over Romney. Unlike Democrat Brown in the Senate race, Obama is winning northeastern Ohio, leading Romney there by a 52% to 44% margin. In central Ohio, including the state capital of Columbus the largest city in the state Romney leads by a 51% to 48% margin. Romneys strongest part of the state is the reliably conservative southwest corner, including Cincinnati, where he leads Obama by a 54% to 39% margin.
The thing that should scare the Obama folks the most is that he is well under 50%, always a danger for sitting presidents as undecidedes always strongly break for the challenger.
” - - - compared to 47% support for Democrat Barack Obama. “
Romney was right: the 47 % are protecting their tax exempt status by sticking with Obama.
I was in the Cincy area over this past weekend. Of interest were all the Brown adverts on the radio and particularly the Black emphasis stations ( I channel surf while driving) ... but nary an Obama one. The Brown adverts were encouraging people to vote for Brown “and the Democrats) with no mention of Obama.
Now there may be an issue with joint funding of ads, but I found the lack of Obama ads and the lack of Obama in the Brown ads interesting. I wonder if Brown’s own polls are showing something bad and he’s now trying to distance himself from Obama.
This makes it clear what must be done in 2016 (if not 2014):
Conservative PACs and big donors need to fund and start new polling firms that will counteract the manipulative Zogby, CNN, ABC, WaPo, et al. Maybe Rasmussen - not sure about him yet.
But clearly the majority of polling companies are NOT our friends and exist only to manipulate public opinion. That game can be played both ways.
With a large share of Obama’s support still coming from women, I expect that to seriously erode if Romney does well tomorrow night and if the Libya debacle continues to prove that Obama has made our nation very insecure.
The economy is bad, women are losing jobs, and economic security ties directly to national security.
When it finally comes decision time, our female voters tend to be practical IF information gets disseminated. The debates are up front for all to see, and Benghazi does not seem to be dying even though the media would love to kill it.
Note: +1 D, too.
Can anyone explain how Bozo has shot up to a tie with Romney (47.3) in the national average? He’s down in every poll not conducted by Zogby.
That’s +1 D for the national sample, but pollsters shouldn’t impose their national affiliation numbers on states. Surely each state has its own separate party ID.
Obviously, saying that Texas and California should be treated indentically would be silly on its face.
So, I keep looking for state-by-state party ID numbers, but I’ve never found any.
Has anyone else?
Glad to hear about the Mandel numbers as well......
Sherrod "Dimrod" Brown is an absolute idiot, and he should be running his likeness in ad's with a democrat operatives hand shoved up him buttocks moving his lips for him......... Brown has never been anything more than a moron reading the Dimrats sound bite script.
Maybe this has something to do with Sherrod's current poll numbers....
......In the end, Dimrod Brown always does what the party tells him too.....
I wrote Senator Brown during the “UN small arms treaty” final days, and his reply was basically that he didn’t think this treaty could affect our gun rights.
That alone is reason not to support him.
Maybe his wife can get him a typesetter’s job at her paper..
I’e speculated for the last few months that we may well see a “reverse coattails” effect in Ohio..that is, Josh could well carry Mitt over the top.
Good news overall, and particularly about the Senate race. A Mandel replacement for the old Bolshevik Brown would be fantastic.
Most of it was from a "debunked" Washington Post poll that came out this morning and had Obama up by 3 points. It turns out they oversampled democrats by 9 points to get that result. But it is enough to skew the realclearpolitics average.
It is the women in America that send their sons and husbands off to fight wars that politicians cause by their incompetence.
It is the women who choose who the most competent politicians are when they vote for them.
The “White Guilt” voting of 2008 that brought Obama to the White House has been a disaster for the women of America for unemployment, finances, and harm brought to their sons and husbands in the various wars zones.
Now that Obama’s foreign policy has been revealed to be nothing more than FOLLOWING, (=Leading from Behind), what woman is America is going to agree to send her son or husband off to be ordered about by the incompetent Obama?
It is almost solely due to the ABC poll that has him up 3 that is completely absurd with huge oversampling etc.
It is almost solely due to the ABC poll that has Obama up 3 that is completely absurd with huge oversampling etc.
Northeast Ohio, dominated by Cleveland, is one of the most predominantly Democratic areas of the country — yet Democrat Sherrod Brown is getting only 42% of the vote there?! Amazing.
But equally amazing is the fact that Sherrod Brown is also getting 42% of the vote in the ENTIRE STATE — every area of which is less Democratic than Northeast Ohio where he’s also getting 42%!
If Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) goes Republican on November 6th, it would be extraordinary. It would mean the end of the Democratic party as we know it. Yet it’s starting to seem possible.
Brown’s stragety is to make Mandel ‘untrustworthy’. Some GM employees were in a Brown commercial repeating the phrase: “In BROWN we trust”. I was offended.
That game could have been played by both sides all along...but hasn’t. Why not?
Why didn’t Bush crack down on voter and election fraud when he had the chance with all three branches under Rep control? Questions for the universe, since I sure as hell can’t figure it out.
Romney with a +2% lead with this kind of breakdown is nothing to write home about. If he had a 2 point lead with a D+7, +8, or +9 breakdown would be a reason to shout.
In 2008 the county cast 668,000 votes, and split 70-30 for Obama. He won't get that turnout or that margin this year, so Romney's and Mandel's chances are very real.
Romney should say “Hillary Clinton is taking the blame for your failures. And you sent Susan Rice out to lie and now she’s being thrown under the bus. Talk about a war on women.”
All FReepers worried about Ohio should read this:
Mark Halperin of Time Magazine’s The Page writes tonight:
“One senior Democratic official expressed real concern tonight unlike I have heard before about Ohio potentially slipping away from Obama (the state has been trending Republican in statewide races, Rob Portman has become a force, religious and gun groups are flooding the state with voter contacts, two of Romneys top strategists have recently won a statewide race there, etc).”
Ohio is getting away from Obama. We knew this weeks ago from the trends in the absentee ballot request spreadsheet, analyzed by FReepers LS and Ravi.
Cuyahoga will not go R. Even with the vote purges, even with the 20+ point increase in absentee performance there we’ll still lose the county by 75,000 votes at least. But that’s ok. If that’s all the got, it’s over. In 08 we lost the county by 250,000 votes (if I remember) so we are in great shape.
OH is about +1 R, and always over performs over national polls for Rs by .5 percent. So yes, this is a 3 point lead at minimum, Romney is really now at 50 here, and it really is over for Zero barring an R meltdown.
If the Ds are admitting it is “slipping away, “ they never had it to begin with.
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