Posted on 10/15/2012 11:14:36 AM PDT by xzins
October 8th, 2012 by Fritz Wenzel OCTOBER 8, 2012-A NEW Wenzel Strategies survey of likely voterd in Ohio shows that Republican Mitt Romney has taken a small lead in the race for President, winning 48% compared to 47% support for Democrat Barack Obama. The poll carries a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.96 percentage points, making the race for the White House a statistical dead heat in the Buckeye State. In the race for the U.S. Senate, Republican challenger Josh Mandel edges out Democratic first-term incumbent Sherrod Brown by a 46% to 42% margin.
The survey includes 38% Democrats, 37% Republicans, and 25% independent voters.
Here is the Wenzel Strategies Polling Memorandum and Topline Report:
Ohio Statewide Survey Polling Memorandum – 10-6-2012
Ohio Statewide Poll Topline Report 10-6-2012
Northeast Ohio, dominated by Cleveland, is one of the most predominantly Democratic areas of the country — yet Democrat Sherrod Brown is getting only 42% of the vote there?! Amazing.
But equally amazing is the fact that Sherrod Brown is also getting 42% of the vote in the ENTIRE STATE — every area of which is less Democratic than Northeast Ohio where he’s also getting 42%!
If Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) goes Republican on November 6th, it would be extraordinary. It would mean the end of the Democratic party as we know it. Yet it’s starting to seem possible.
Brown’s stragety is to make Mandel ‘untrustworthy’. Some GM employees were in a Brown commercial repeating the phrase: “In BROWN we trust”. I was offended.
That game could have been played by both sides all along...but hasn’t. Why not?
Why didn’t Bush crack down on voter and election fraud when he had the chance with all three branches under Rep control? Questions for the universe, since I sure as hell can’t figure it out.
Romney with a +2% lead with this kind of breakdown is nothing to write home about. If he had a 2 point lead with a D+7, +8, or +9 breakdown would be a reason to shout.
In 2008 the county cast 668,000 votes, and split 70-30 for Obama. He won't get that turnout or that margin this year, so Romney's and Mandel's chances are very real.
Romney should say “Hillary Clinton is taking the blame for your failures. And you sent Susan Rice out to lie and now she’s being thrown under the bus. Talk about a war on women.”
All FReepers worried about Ohio should read this:
Mark Halperin of Time Magazine’s The Page writes tonight:
“One senior Democratic official expressed real concern tonight unlike I have heard before about Ohio potentially slipping away from Obama (the state has been trending Republican in statewide races, Rob Portman has become a force, religious and gun groups are flooding the state with voter contacts, two of Romney’s top strategists have recently won a statewide race there, etc).”
Ohio is getting away from Obama. We knew this weeks ago from the trends in the absentee ballot request spreadsheet, analyzed by FReepers LS and Ravi.
Cuyahoga will not go R. Even with the vote purges, even with the 20+ point increase in absentee performance there we’ll still lose the county by 75,000 votes at least. But that’s ok. If that’s all the got, it’s over. In 08 we lost the county by 250,000 votes (if I remember) so we are in great shape.
OH is about +1 R, and always over performs over national polls for Rs by .5 percent. So yes, this is a 3 point lead at minimum, Romney is really now at 50 here, and it really is over for Zero barring an R meltdown.
If the Ds are admitting it is “slipping away, “ they never had it to begin with.
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