Romney leads 51-46 in Swing States (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin)
Still, of these dozen, five are solidly going Romney's way (FL, IA, NH, NC, and VA) and four are a hard lean in Obama's favor (NM, PA, MI, NV).
If this plays out that way, it really boils down to whoever can capture 2 of these 3 states: Ohio, Colorado, Wisconsin.
Even if Ryan pulls Wisconsin into Romney's corner, if Romney loses both Colorado and Ohio, he won't win.
The high Evangelical presence along the Front Range in CO is NOT enthused, turnout-wise, over Mormon Romney. Things are looking better for Romney in Ohio per the reports I've heard.