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Oh my: Gallup shows Romney leading by five in swing states
Hotair ^ | 10/15/2012 | AllahPundit

Posted on 10/15/2012 2:52:26 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

Like Chuck Todd said this morning, "Structural shift."

A safe prediction for tomorrow night: You're going to hear a lot about the "47 percent" and a lot lot lot about the "war on women."

As the presidential campaign heads into its final weeks, the survey of voters in 12 crucial swing states finds female voters much more engaged in the election and increasingly concerned about the deficit and debt issues that favor Romney. The Republican nominee now ties the president among women who are likely voters, 48%-48%, while he leads by 12 points among men...

"In every poll, we've seen a major surge among women in favorability for Romney" since his strong performance in the first debate, veteran Democratic pollster Celinda Lake says. "Women went into the debate actively disliking Romney, and they came out thinking he might understand their lives and might be able to get something done for them."...

Now, the USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows Romney leading Obama 51%-46% among likely voters in the swing states. Men who are likely voters back him 54%-42%. The states are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin...

When women were asked to identify the most important issue for women, though, the answers were strikingly different. The top concern by far was abortion, an issue that didn't even register among men. Nearly four in 10 women cited it, and those who did supported Obama by more than 3-1. Fifteen percent cited equal rights, pay or opportunity.

There’s an enthusiasm gap among women voters too, with 46 percent saying they’re “extremely enthusiastic” to vote for Mitt versus 38 percent who say so about O. (Married women, who trend Republican, are also more enthusiastic than singles.) You’ll be pleased to know that Team Hopenchange has already wet itself over these results and is circulating a memo written by their pollster dumping on Gallup’s likely voter screen. I’m intrigued that they’re so eager to bat this down with the next debate 28 hours away. Even if this is an outlier, they’ll benefit if the next poll is taken after the debate and shows the race tighter, which would lend itself to an “Obama comeback” narrative. They must be awfully nervous about perceptions taking hold in the electorate that O’s a loser beyond even the power of the next debate to change. And if you read Sean Trende’s piece last week, you know why: Constructing a sense of inevitability has always been their best defense against the forces of political “gravity.” Once that sense is shattered and Romney becomes plausible, they start to melt.

The danger for Obama now, I think, is that he’s lost control of his own destiny. He’ll light into Romney tomorrow night but I don’t know how much harm it’ll do, especially since Mitt will be well prepared for the “47 percent” attack. Romney’s task was, and is, to show he’s a plausible president, and that depends much more on his own answers (and demeanor) than it does on Obama’s. If “President Romney” seems viable, gravity can do the rest.

Update: A few swing-state odds and ends for you as gravy. A Romney aide told Byron York that their internal polls show Ohio dead even; ARG sees a dead heat in Iowa too. Meanwhile, PPP found Romney up two points in North Carolina — based on a D+10 sample. As Tony Lee says, lights out.


TOPICS: Breaking News; Culture/Society; Politics/Elections; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; gallup; romney; swingstates

1 posted on 10/15/2012 2:52:34 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

If that is true, what does that make it unskewed? Up 10?


2 posted on 10/15/2012 2:57:50 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: SeekAndFind
Tsk, tsk, you know better than that, Gallup! http://www.buzzfeed.com/zekejmiller/obama-camp-blasts-gallup-poll You are not to show Zero with less than a double-digit lead among women! It's not like they were po'ed by Biden's bullying attitude!
3 posted on 10/15/2012 3:00:16 PM PDT by UltraV (I use the term Leftist not liberal, because a true liberal would not support government censorship.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Lil Barry is lazy and pompous. Without the prompter he’s a mush mouth.


4 posted on 10/15/2012 3:05:44 PM PDT by VRWC For Truth (Roberts has perverted the Constitution)
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To: SeekAndFind

“The Republican nominee now ties the president among women who are likely voters, 48%-48%”

Could that be the Joe Biden effect? Hahahahaha.


5 posted on 10/15/2012 3:07:36 PM PDT by Parley Baer
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To: SeekAndFind

got to love it! now Bambi has too many swing states to campaign in and not enough time.


6 posted on 10/15/2012 3:11:22 PM PDT by Who_Ate_My_Dog
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To: Who_Ate_My_Dog

LOL..where to go where to go!


7 posted on 10/15/2012 3:25:34 PM PDT by Michigander222
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To: SeekAndFind

Romney; you need to run as if you are behind by 20 points, all the way to the election.


8 posted on 10/15/2012 3:26:30 PM PDT by crz
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To: SeekAndFind

A war on women would include Republican and Independent women too......Dems are so dumb!!


9 posted on 10/15/2012 3:27:56 PM PDT by jch10 (America needs some R and R!)
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So, accoding to their survey, 40% of women want abortion on demand while the issue doesn’t rank high on the list of mens’ concerns.

Quite striking.

I thought the media always told us that it was men forcing women to get abortions.


10 posted on 10/15/2012 3:36:05 PM PDT by AlmaKing
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To: SeekAndFind

the main issue for women is NOT abortion....what a crock


11 posted on 10/15/2012 3:49:55 PM PDT by kingattax (99 % of liberals give the rest a bad name)
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To: SeekAndFind
A safe prediction for tomorrow night: You're going to hear a lot about the "47 percent" and a lot lot lot about the "war on women."

Isn't this debate supposed to be on foreign policy?

12 posted on 10/15/2012 3:50:27 PM PDT by Future Snake Eater (CrossFit.com)
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To: SeekAndFind

The lies and liberal attack dogs have pumped Obama full of B and S for this debate. Romney needs to be on his toes and ready to respond.


13 posted on 10/15/2012 3:53:27 PM PDT by RetiredArmy (The Scriptures clearly tell us we are in the last days, the end times. Christ is the only answer!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Why don’t they just threaten to sue Gallup? Oh,wait.


14 posted on 10/15/2012 3:59:50 PM PDT by OrangeHoof (Our economy won't heal until one particular black man is unemployed.)
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To: Chris Stevens, The Goofer, Taquiyya Taquiyya


Just a few bumps in the road.....



15 posted on 10/15/2012 4:01:40 PM PDT by devolve (----- ------- -CHEESEBURGER_CHEESEBURGER_CHEESEBURGER- ----------------------------)
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To: SeekAndFind
A Romney aide told Byron York that their internal polls show Ohio dead even.

*******************************************************

I won't even start to get my hopes up until I hear that Romney is ahead in Ohio.

16 posted on 10/15/2012 4:27:06 PM PDT by kara37
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To: kara37

I don’t know.....internal polls are not often leaked for any reason. It’s just not done. York’s been around so perhaps he has a good “in” with Romney’s people.


17 posted on 10/15/2012 4:33:08 PM PDT by LongWayHome
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To: SeekAndFind

FOR LATER


18 posted on 10/15/2012 4:33:49 PM PDT by Doctor 2Brains (If the government were Paris Hilton, it could not score a free drink in a bar full of lonely sailors)
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To: LongWayHome

I suspect they leaned towards Romney so that they could show a swing back after the next debate.


19 posted on 10/15/2012 4:37:37 PM PDT by aimhigh
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To: kingattax

Woman want abortions on demand and free contraceptives. They do not care about a crushing national debt on their children. Can’t you people read, for gosh sakes!


20 posted on 10/15/2012 4:41:48 PM PDT by fhayek
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To: kara37

RE: I won’t even start to get my hopes up until I hear that Romney is ahead in Ohio.

As goes Ohio, so goes the Presidency.


21 posted on 10/15/2012 4:41:54 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: Future Snake Eater

RE: Isn’t this debate supposed to be on foreign policy?

No. Tomorrow is Townhall so you can’t have all foreign policy. The 3rd debate is about foreign policy.


22 posted on 10/15/2012 4:43:38 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: crz
Romney; you need to run as if you are behind by 20 points, all the way to the election.

Exactly!

23 posted on 10/15/2012 4:43:43 PM PDT by LUV W (All my heroes wear camos!)
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To: All

I don’t trust this. It sounds like a set-up for the new “comeback kid”.. They have four days to set the narrative for the weekend talkers where they will once again declare the race over, after Obama gains back all the ground he lost and he has the Navy or the AF light up a few aspirin factories or some school filled with kids the week before the election.
The third debate will been seen as pointless.


24 posted on 10/15/2012 4:44:11 PM PDT by newnhdad (Where will you be during the Election Riots of 2012/2013?)
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To: Parley Baer

“The Republican nominee now ties the president among women who are likely voters, 48%-48%”

Could that be the Joe Biden effect? Hahahahaha.


I think Biden’s act was particularly offensive to women, who I find tend to be far less cynical about politics and come to such events as the vice presidential debate expecting serious solutions to be proposed.

I’ve been alive 63 years and I’ve never met a woman who responds positvely to “flip” men.

On the other hand, Ryan came across as a very bright, sincere gentleman trying to outline the things that might be done to improve the economic condition of the nation.


25 posted on 10/15/2012 4:52:44 PM PDT by PaleoBob
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To: kingattax

The three top issues are
JOBS JOBS JOBS!

Many women are unemployed. They Used to make good money and still remember
The stuff they used to afford.

Their husbands, brothers, sisters, daughters, sons, parents, nieces , nephews, aunts, uncles, friends and their family are Unemployed
And they see the devastating effects it has.

Every other issue can wait. It’s not as important. Stop wasting time talking about any other issue!

Fix the Damn Economy! No! Seriously!


26 posted on 10/15/2012 5:06:05 PM PDT by Morris70
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To: Who_Ate_My_Dog

And plenty of states that he easily won by 15+ points last time with single digit leads now.


27 posted on 10/15/2012 5:08:00 PM PDT by matt04
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To: SeekAndFind

“The states are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin...”

He’s up by 5 points in each and every one of these states?


28 posted on 10/15/2012 5:16:38 PM PDT by Doctor 2Brains (If the government were Paris Hilton, it could not score a free drink in a bar full of lonely sailors)
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To: SeekAndFind
PPP Dem poll showing really bad news for Obama this week. Pre-Debate. This race has been over for a while. Obama has lost. Turn out the lights, the party is over.
29 posted on 10/15/2012 5:34:48 PM PDT by TornadoAlley3 (Obama is everything Oklahoma is not.)
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To: kara37

Romney IS ahead in Ohio. If Romney is ahead in national polls 4 or 5, no way Obama is ahead in Oio.


30 posted on 10/15/2012 5:37:00 PM PDT by TornadoAlley3 (Obama is everything Oklahoma is not.)
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To: Doctor 2Brains

No. Gallup says he is up by five overall in those states.

There are some he likely trails in (New Mexico, Michigan, Pennsylvania), which makes an overall five point lead all the more impressive.


31 posted on 10/15/2012 5:40:32 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: GilGil

you’re forgetting that the polls have to account for their voter fraud and the miltiary being denied their right to vote.

I;m here in NE FL and trust me I have nor my wife has seen one oabma yard sign , not one, my wife went down a road called Rosco BLvd today and counted 30 Romney yard sgns and not one oama sign, I go to Flagler county , Duval nad my town St Augustine and not one yard sign is up yet.

I see about 15 Romney stcikers to one obamas.

The key now is to get OH, though honestly why anyone who is working or wretired wuld vote for obama aftwr these last 4 years or the military after this cover up is beyond me.

COME ON OH, NM AND IOWA, love to get NH and we need CO , hopefully my state FL gets it right.


32 posted on 10/15/2012 5:47:56 PM PDT by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: manc

Here in my neighborhood in Phoenix, 4 years ago there was a block nearby consisting of 13 homes and they almost all had Obama signs on the front lawn. Today nothing there. Not a single sign. Very odd indeed.


33 posted on 10/15/2012 6:17:40 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: SeekAndFind

Mitt’s loving relationship with his wife of many year and helping her face her often devastating illness will have to be considered by The Disaster in bringing up the “War” on women. He can easily turn this on The Disaster to devastating effect without being seen as being too opportunistic.

There is not anything which Team Disaster can spring on Mitt that is of the slightest concern.

The Disaster is dead in the water, the bubble has burst.


34 posted on 10/15/2012 6:45:09 PM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: newnhdad

That all might be a legitimate concern if we were speaking of someone like Clinton but not this clueless doofus.

Once the bubble bursts it cannot be put back together again and Mitt burst it two weeks ago.

I mean look at these polls now even the slanting towards the RATs and women can’t produce a lead for him though they still mislead with the headlines. And now they are hiding the D/R/I ratios better.

R/R is going to win by 10%.


35 posted on 10/15/2012 6:50:56 PM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: PaleoBob

Ryan looked like the son you would want to have.


36 posted on 10/15/2012 6:52:26 PM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: SeekAndFind

If women cancel each other out, as this poll suggests in Swing States, then Romney will have a comfortable victory.


37 posted on 10/15/2012 7:10:34 PM PDT by Repeal 16-17 (Let me know when the Shooting starts.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I think this is a game. The media has “Setup” Romney for tomorrow night. He going to have a heck of time with what they have waiting for him. If his performance under that rigged debate is anything but spectacular then Obama is going to be declared the big winner. Gallop is going to now be able to say Obama gained something like 10 points from the debate. The sheeple will jump on that bus because they are too stupid to see they have been had. And a lot of them just want to be on the winning side. They follow the Mob.


38 posted on 10/15/2012 7:13:57 PM PDT by Revel
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To: arrogantsob

Ryan looked like the son you would want to have.


Yep.


39 posted on 10/15/2012 7:45:41 PM PDT by PaleoBob
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To: crz
Romney; you need to run as if you are behind by 20 points, all the way to the election.

Damn straight......this election is really getting to me.

40 posted on 10/15/2012 8:20:24 PM PDT by Irish Eyes
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To: arrogantsob

“Ryan looked like the son you would want to have.”

Or the son-in-law you would want your daughter to have.


41 posted on 10/16/2012 7:56:56 AM PDT by ari-freedom
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To: SeekAndFind

Can the Obama locked states be far behind?


42 posted on 10/16/2012 7:59:34 AM PDT by bmwcyle (Corollary - Electing the same person over and over and expecting a different outcome is insanity)
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To: Revel

“I think this is a game. The media has “Setup” Romney for tomorrow night.”

True but Romney isn’t new to this game. And Biden’s attack dog strategy didn’t exactly work so Obama is really 0 for 2.


43 posted on 10/16/2012 8:01:45 AM PDT by ari-freedom
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To: ari-freedom

Exactly right.


44 posted on 10/16/2012 9:32:55 AM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: GilGil

ROmney will NEED to be up by 10 to overcome all those dead voters.

Seriously.
I expect voter fraud that would make even the most devout ACORN worker blush.


45 posted on 10/16/2012 9:41:18 AM PDT by a real Sheila (RYAN/romney 2012)
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To: SeekAndFind
Romney's answer on the 47% is simple.

"I already addressed that. I could have used better words, but the point stands. Due to your party's buying of votes through unimaginable numbers of American's on food stamps and welfare...and promising them more...there is a certain percent who will not vote for me.

"This does not mean I am not concerned for them. Far to the contrary, I intend to inact policies that will help all who can to get off the federal dole and become fully employed once again.

"And, OBTW, Mr. Prsesident, if you are so concerned about my slight mis-statement there, how about your own comments regarding the bitter Amnerican clinging to the Bibles and their guns while they hold antipathy for other Americans who don't look like they do?

"Does that remain your own position on that whole group of American citizens? I mean, since the press will not grill you on your own mis-statements, I guess it is left for me to do it here since you raised the issue"

OBAMA'S LIES

46 posted on 10/16/2012 10:32:03 AM PDT by Jeff Head ( Freedom is not free, never has been, never will be (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: Jeff Head

10/16/12 2 PM AP declars Obama the winner of tonight’s debate

(hint: the mainstream media has already written their stories)


47 posted on 10/16/2012 11:38:34 AM PDT by Gopher Broke (Repeal Obamacare !!)
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To: Jeff Head

10/16/12 2 PM AP declares Obama the winner of tonight’s debate

(hint: the mainstream media has already written their stories)


48 posted on 10/16/2012 11:39:02 AM PDT by Gopher Broke (Repeal Obamacare !!)
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