Posted on 10/15/2012 2:52:26 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Like Chuck Todd said this morning, "Structural shift."
A safe prediction for tomorrow night: You're going to hear a lot about the "47 percent" and a lot lot lot about the "war on women."
As the presidential campaign heads into its final weeks, the survey of voters in 12 crucial swing states finds female voters much more engaged in the election and increasingly concerned about the deficit and debt issues that favor Romney. The Republican nominee now ties the president among women who are likely voters, 48%-48%, while he leads by 12 points among men...
"In every poll, we've seen a major surge among women in favorability for Romney" since his strong performance in the first debate, veteran Democratic pollster Celinda Lake says. "Women went into the debate actively disliking Romney, and they came out thinking he might understand their lives and might be able to get something done for them."...
Now, the USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows Romney leading Obama 51%-46% among likely voters in the swing states. Men who are likely voters back him 54%-42%. The states are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin...
When women were asked to identify the most important issue for women, though, the answers were strikingly different. The top concern by far was abortion, an issue that didn't even register among men. Nearly four in 10 women cited it, and those who did supported Obama by more than 3-1. Fifteen percent cited equal rights, pay or opportunity.
There’s an enthusiasm gap among women voters too, with 46 percent saying they’re “extremely enthusiastic” to vote for Mitt versus 38 percent who say so about O. (Married women, who trend Republican, are also more enthusiastic than singles.) You’ll be pleased to know that Team Hopenchange has already wet itself over these results and is circulating a memo written by their pollster dumping on Gallup’s likely voter screen. I’m intrigued that they’re so eager to bat this down with the next debate 28 hours away. Even if this is an outlier, they’ll benefit if the next poll is taken after the debate and shows the race tighter, which would lend itself to an “Obama comeback” narrative. They must be awfully nervous about perceptions taking hold in the electorate that O’s a loser beyond even the power of the next debate to change. And if you read Sean Trende’s piece last week, you know why: Constructing a sense of inevitability has always been their best defense against the forces of political “gravity.” Once that sense is shattered and Romney becomes plausible, they start to melt.
The danger for Obama now, I think, is that he’s lost control of his own destiny. He’ll light into Romney tomorrow night but I don’t know how much harm it’ll do, especially since Mitt will be well prepared for the “47 percent” attack. Romney’s task was, and is, to show he’s a plausible president, and that depends much more on his own answers (and demeanor) than it does on Obama’s. If “President Romney” seems viable, gravity can do the rest.
Update: A few swing-state odds and ends for you as gravy. A Romney aide told Byron York that their internal polls show Ohio dead even; ARG sees a dead heat in Iowa too. Meanwhile, PPP found Romney up two points in North Carolina — based on a D+10 sample. As Tony Lee says, lights out.
RE: I won’t even start to get my hopes up until I hear that Romney is ahead in Ohio.
As goes Ohio, so goes the Presidency.
RE: Isn’t this debate supposed to be on foreign policy?
No. Tomorrow is Townhall so you can’t have all foreign policy. The 3rd debate is about foreign policy.
Exactly!
I don’t trust this. It sounds like a set-up for the new “comeback kid”.. They have four days to set the narrative for the weekend talkers where they will once again declare the race over, after Obama gains back all the ground he lost and he has the Navy or the AF light up a few aspirin factories or some school filled with kids the week before the election.
The third debate will been seen as pointless.
“The Republican nominee now ties the president among women who are likely voters, 48%-48%”
Could that be the Joe Biden effect? Hahahahaha.
I’ve been alive 63 years and I’ve never met a woman who responds positvely to “flip” men.
On the other hand, Ryan came across as a very bright, sincere gentleman trying to outline the things that might be done to improve the economic condition of the nation.
The three top issues are
JOBS JOBS JOBS!
Many women are unemployed. They Used to make good money and still remember
The stuff they used to afford.
Their husbands, brothers, sisters, daughters, sons, parents, nieces , nephews, aunts, uncles, friends and their family are Unemployed
And they see the devastating effects it has.
Every other issue can wait. It’s not as important. Stop wasting time talking about any other issue!
Fix the Damn Economy! No! Seriously!
And plenty of states that he easily won by 15+ points last time with single digit leads now.
“The states are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin...”
He’s up by 5 points in each and every one of these states?
Romney IS ahead in Ohio. If Romney is ahead in national polls 4 or 5, no way Obama is ahead in Oio.
No. Gallup says he is up by five overall in those states.
There are some he likely trails in (New Mexico, Michigan, Pennsylvania), which makes an overall five point lead all the more impressive.
you’re forgetting that the polls have to account for their voter fraud and the miltiary being denied their right to vote.
I;m here in NE FL and trust me I have nor my wife has seen one oabma yard sign , not one, my wife went down a road called Rosco BLvd today and counted 30 Romney yard sgns and not one oama sign, I go to Flagler county , Duval nad my town St Augustine and not one yard sign is up yet.
I see about 15 Romney stcikers to one obamas.
The key now is to get OH, though honestly why anyone who is working or wretired wuld vote for obama aftwr these last 4 years or the military after this cover up is beyond me.
COME ON OH, NM AND IOWA, love to get NH and we need CO , hopefully my state FL gets it right.
Here in my neighborhood in Phoenix, 4 years ago there was a block nearby consisting of 13 homes and they almost all had Obama signs on the front lawn. Today nothing there. Not a single sign. Very odd indeed.
Mitt’s loving relationship with his wife of many year and helping her face her often devastating illness will have to be considered by The Disaster in bringing up the “War” on women. He can easily turn this on The Disaster to devastating effect without being seen as being too opportunistic.
There is not anything which Team Disaster can spring on Mitt that is of the slightest concern.
The Disaster is dead in the water, the bubble has burst.
That all might be a legitimate concern if we were speaking of someone like Clinton but not this clueless doofus.
Once the bubble bursts it cannot be put back together again and Mitt burst it two weeks ago.
I mean look at these polls now even the slanting towards the RATs and women can’t produce a lead for him though they still mislead with the headlines. And now they are hiding the D/R/I ratios better.
R/R is going to win by 10%.
Ryan looked like the son you would want to have.
If women cancel each other out, as this poll suggests in Swing States, then Romney will have a comfortable victory.
I think this is a game. The media has “Setup” Romney for tomorrow night. He going to have a heck of time with what they have waiting for him. If his performance under that rigged debate is anything but spectacular then Obama is going to be declared the big winner. Gallop is going to now be able to say Obama gained something like 10 points from the debate. The sheeple will jump on that bus because they are too stupid to see they have been had. And a lot of them just want to be on the winning side. They follow the Mob.
Ryan looked like the son you would want to have.
Damn straight......this election is really getting to me.
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