Skip to comments.How Likely Is an Electoral Vote/Popular Vote Split?
Posted on 10/15/2012 5:16:38 PM PDT by KerryOnNoMore
How likely is this, really? History suggests not very, unless the race is extremely close. This is because the Electoral College and the popular vote almost always line up reasonably well.
It lists presidential races going back to 1952 (prior to 1952, the ensuing exercise is difficult to apply because of the Solid South). The second column lists the state from which the candidate who won the popular vote received his 270th electoral vote.
Thats a bit abstract, but think of it this way: In 2008, Barack Obama won Washington, D.C., by 86 percentage points, his largest margin of victory anywhere. That gave him his first three electoral votes. The next largest margin was in his home state of Hawaii, which he won by 45 points. That gave him four more electoral votes, for a total of seven.
Continuing this exercise (Obama won Vermont by 37 points for a total of 10; he won Rhode Island by 28 for a total of 14 . . .), we come to Colorado as the state that gave him the clinching electoral vote -- number 270.
The third column is the national margin for the candidate who won the popular vote. The fourth column is that candidates margin of victory in the state that provided him electoral vote number 270 (or would have, in the case of Al Gore).
The fifth column is the most important one. It is the bias of the Electoral College that year, which is the difference between the winning candidates popular vote margin and his margin in the state that gave him 270 electoral votes. Why does this matter? Because if tells us how far off the popular vote was from the Electoral College.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
What is very likely is if Romney wins Ohio to clinch the EC and he wins by less than 100,000 votes, will be such a S**t storm of lawyers and law suits descending on Ohio that it will make Florida ‘2000 look like a Papal election.
Romney wins popular vote by 7-8% and rout in EC.
I saw its more likely the declared winner will be delayed due to numerous filed lawsuits.
If there is a split or even a tie, there is no crisis; the Constitution provides for both.
It is a shame that most Americans think the President is or should be popularly elected.
It depends on whether the Obama campaign feels that it needs to cheat in places where they have it sewn up as well as the ones they need.
Vote fraud is the demholes last hope. Anything close enough to steal, they will steal. OH, MO, NV, CO.......
Exactly. I’ve been telling my mom - who is worried sick - “Don’t worry: Romney by 7.”
My prediction is R 53.5 to O 46.5.
And that’s WITH the dastardly last minute BS that the Obama campaign/MSM pulls. (who knows what yet, but they will.)
obamao can’t win so he plants stories about this crap.
I don’t care.The only thing that’s important to me is either 269 plus control of the House or 270 without.