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Poll Shows Romney Gaining Ground in Pennsylvania
National Journal ^ | 10/16/2012

Posted on 10/16/2012 3:53:35 AM PDT by My Favorite Headache

President Obama now holds only a narrow lead over Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania, a state thought only a month ago to be safely in the incumbent’s corner, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac University released on Tuesday.

The survey of likely voters conducted from Oct. 12-14, reports the president is ahead of the GOP presidential nominee in the Keystone State by just 4 percentage points, 50 percent to 46 percent. Romney has gained 8 points on Obama since a late-September Quinnipiac poll, when the president led, 54 percent to 42 percent.

The latest survey is representative of national polls that show the race shifting in Romney’s favor since the first presidential debate. As in those polls, his gains correlate with increased favorability ratings. In September, just 41 percent of likely voters saw Romney favorably, while 50 percent saw him unfavorably. Now, a plurality of likely voters in the state see the former governor positively, 46 percent to 44 percent.

Obama’s number remain mostly unchanged: 52 percent see him favorably, while 45 percent don’t. A month ago, 54 percent saw him favorably and 43 percent who didn’t.

The survey also squares with another recent Pennsylvania survey that reported Romney gains. A Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll of likely voters, conducted from Oct. 10 through Oct. 14 with a margin of error of 5 percentage points, found Obama leading Romney by only 4 points, 49 percent to 45 percent. That was down from an 7-point advantage for the president from the same survey taken in late September.

But another poll conducted on the Philadelphia Inquirer’s behalf by the Democratic firm Global Strategy Group and Republican group National Research, reported Obama held a far more comfortable edge among likely voters. He led by 8 points there, 50 percent to 42 percent, according to the Inquirer survey, taken from Oct. 4-8.

The Quinnipiac poll reported a gargantuan gender gap between support of the two candidates. Romney led among men in the state, 54 percent to 43 percent, while Obama led among women, 57 percent to 39 percent. That’s a net 29-point difference.

Pennsylvania has traditionally been among the country’s most fiercely contested presidential battlegrounds, even as Democrats have won every quadrennial battle there since George H.W. Bush’s victory in 1988. But it has largely been ignored by both campaigns this cycle, who have shifted their focus to new swing states such as Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, and Virginia. TV-ad spending by either campaign, tracked and compiled by The Hotline, shows Obama’s campaign hasn’t spent a dollar over the air there since July; Romney’s campaign has yet to make a single ad buy in Pennsylvania in the general election.

However, Ann Romney told Philadelphia radio station WPHT on Monday: "You know, the debate was huge and we’ve seen our numbers move all across the country, but in particular, Pennsylvania is in play, so we’re here and we’re fighting."

It’s not surprising that if the general-election race is close, Pennsylvania would be competitive. Obama won the state by 10 points four years ago, but George W. Bush lost it narrowly by just over 2 points in 2004.

Whether the Romney campaign will make a last-ditch effort to win the state remains unclear. Obama’s lead has shrunk, but it remains larger in the Keystone State than in battlegrounds such as Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia. And advertising in Pennsylvania is both expensive and inefficient, particularly in the sprawling Philadelphia media market. An investment capable of moving numbers would likely cost millions of dollars, and advertising in Philadelphia means paying for voters in southern New Jersey and Delaware to see the ads (each part of the city’s media market), both of which are safe Democratic seats.

The Romney campaign has already calculated it can reach 270 electoral votes by winning some combination of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Making a late play for Pennsylvania would siphon money from efforts in each of them — although it’s possible that, for strategic reasons, Romney’s campaign decides to make Obama’s campaign put up ads of its own there.

Quinnipiac University's latest poll surveyed 1,519 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. The poll used live interviewers, who called land lines and cell phones.


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; obama; pa2012; polls; romney
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To: LeonardFMason

Giving Philadelphia away has my vote!

I hope for a terrible weather day as well. Here in the western part of the state, we do not identify with Philadelphia at ALL. We here (other than the Obama voting city dwellers) are good, hard working, morale people.

I’m not willing to concede PA, but I will remain realistic.


21 posted on 10/16/2012 6:00:41 AM PDT by swpa_mom
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To: swpa_mom
I'd say Montgomery County is the real “swing” county in PA. Philly is going Dem. A big chunk of the center will go Republican. Montgomery County has been going Dem for the past several presidential cycles — the last time it was solidly Republican was the 1980s.

I did notice two people who had Obama signs in 2008 have Romney signs now but in my area, there strangely aren't nearly as many signs as there were in 2008. Perhaps that is a good thing. Perhaps it means all the 2008 Obama voters just aren't enthusiastic this time.

22 posted on 10/16/2012 6:11:44 AM PDT by Opinionated Blowhard ("When the people find they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.")
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To: My Favorite Headache

The “bitter clingers” voted for Hildebeast in the primary, not Obama. No, we did’t go for McLame...no surprise. This is the year we go for Romney.


23 posted on 10/16/2012 6:12:56 AM PDT by jdsteel (Give me freedom, not more government.)
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To: My Favorite Headache; All

Just checked to see the results of the Scholastic school vote.

I don’t like it: Obama won 51 percent to 45 percent, a large victory.

http://magazines.scholastic.com/Election-2012/Vote

This is normally right.

THAT SAID, I am still thinking it is wrong this year and we will win BECAUSE much of the voting occurred prior to Romney’s surge. I am thinking and hoping this year it will be wrong again.


24 posted on 10/16/2012 6:37:27 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: rwfromkansas; All

Re: my Scholastic post. I will add the Scholastic vote appears screwy this year anyway because it has Obama only one point behind in Texas.

The theory is that the kid polls show what parents are saying, but frankly, that is not reflective of Texas.

Other school elections this year in schools have pointed to a Romney victory as well.


25 posted on 10/16/2012 6:39:20 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: My Favorite Headache

"...A friend from the western part of the state (Pittsburgh area), says he’s seen Obama commercials running already."

26 posted on 10/16/2012 6:46:29 AM PDT by Qbert ("The best defense against usurpatory government is an assertive citizenry" - William F. Buckley, Jr.)
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To: windsorknot

Yes, PA and Murtha: “To death do us part.”


27 posted on 10/16/2012 7:06:21 AM PDT by Theodore R. (Annoy the Establishment! Vote for Akin!)
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To: rwfromkansas
I don’t like it: Obama won 51 percent to 45 percent, a large victory.

I looked at the page and saw that it projected Obama would win FL, NC, SC and AZ.

Ain't happenin'.

28 posted on 10/16/2012 7:39:12 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Record high turnout is our hope for sending 0bama home. Pray hard!!!)
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To: randita

Thanks for the ping.


29 posted on 10/16/2012 7:39:24 AM PDT by GOPJ (Candy picks ALL questions to ask from the hundreds submitted - Citizens are stage props.)
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To: swpa_mom

I live on Long Island, but I was recently on a road trip through NEPA (Pike, Wayne, and Lackawanna Counties). Romney/Ryan lawn signs outnumbered Obama signs by 5:1.

Glad to hear the same seems to be true in SWPA.

Regards,


30 posted on 10/16/2012 7:42:54 AM PDT by VermiciousKnid (Sic narro nos totus!)
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To: AU72

If RR can get close in PA without spending a lot of time and money going after it then it will be a blowout win elsewhere IMO.
I firmly believe that a popular vote win of more than 1.5 points will be plenty to carry the electoral college.
Unless Ohio has recently had a dramatic demographic change I just don’t see RR losing it if PA is close.


31 posted on 10/16/2012 8:12:18 AM PDT by Clump ( the tree of liberty is withering like a stricken fig tree)
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To: rwfromkansas

The “Scholastic” vote is heavily weighted by demographics toward the lower class and the dispossessed, many of whom do not vote.


32 posted on 10/16/2012 8:12:29 AM PDT by Theodore R. (Annoy the Establishment! Vote for Akin!)
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To: LeonardFMason
What is the fraudulent method used in Filthadelphia?
I know of several types but the numbers out of there are just ungodly and they happen the same in every presidential election.
It's like they do it right out in the open because they have always done it that way and they never get called on it.
It is so frustrating!
33 posted on 10/16/2012 8:27:34 AM PDT by Clump ( the tree of liberty is withering like a stricken fig tree)
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To: My Favorite Headache

Sadly, I’ve been to this dance before and the pretty girl always rejects me. I’ll believe it when I see it, but we need to consider PA lost for the foreseeable future.


34 posted on 10/16/2012 8:36:21 AM PDT by CPONuke
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To: Eleutheria5

If BO goes under 50%, then only is PA in play. But otherwise, it would be nice to make him work for it.


35 posted on 10/16/2012 8:43:53 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: swpa_mom

All we can do is do our own small part within our sphere of influence.

Convince five or six neighbors to vote against Obama, and you’ve won a victory.

The state will go as it goes. As long as this clown gets removed, that’s the main thing. If we can get Casey out as well, that’s better.


36 posted on 10/16/2012 8:45:14 AM PDT by NFHale (The Second Amendment - By Any Means Necessary.)
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To: My Favorite Headache

Philadelphia can NOT swing PA by itself, so lets stop worrying about the machine there. It’s the suburban counties of Philadelphia: Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery that will swing the election.

The last time PA went Republican was in 1988 when Bush Sr. won those counties. GOP voters here are primarily fiscal conservatives first, social issues last.

IMO, Romney is doing the best in the suburbs since 2000, because he’s making the economy first and doesn’t come off as “a Jesus freak” as people liked to call Bush.


37 posted on 10/16/2012 8:47:34 AM PDT by Shadow44
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To: ScottinVA

I am skeptical as well because of the Texas result. It appears this year’s poll just makes no sense.


38 posted on 10/16/2012 9:36:06 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: My Favorite Headache

Please. This election would have to be a monstrous blowout for Romney to take PA. It hasn’t been competitive since 1988 even with GOP senators and governors.


39 posted on 10/16/2012 11:21:43 AM PDT by newzjunkey (Osama's dead... and so is our ambassador - Coulter.)
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To: My Favorite Headache

It’s sad that this won’t be a 50 state sweep for the GOP. It’s, even, sadder that it won’t be a 57 state sweep for the GOP, either. It’s saddest of all that a very small government conservative won’t win the ‘12 POTUS race.


40 posted on 10/16/2012 2:11:01 PM PDT by johnthebaptistmoore (The world continues to be stuck in a "all leftist, all of the time" funk. BUNK THE FUNK!)
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