Skip to comments.Poll Shows Romney Gaining Ground in Pennsylvania
Posted on 10/16/2012 3:53:35 AM PDT by My Favorite Headache
President Obama now holds only a narrow lead over Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania, a state thought only a month ago to be safely in the incumbents corner, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac University released on Tuesday.
The survey of likely voters conducted from Oct. 12-14, reports the president is ahead of the GOP presidential nominee in the Keystone State by just 4 percentage points, 50 percent to 46 percent. Romney has gained 8 points on Obama since a late-September Quinnipiac poll, when the president led, 54 percent to 42 percent.
The latest survey is representative of national polls that show the race shifting in Romneys favor since the first presidential debate. As in those polls, his gains correlate with increased favorability ratings. In September, just 41 percent of likely voters saw Romney favorably, while 50 percent saw him unfavorably. Now, a plurality of likely voters in the state see the former governor positively, 46 percent to 44 percent.
Obamas number remain mostly unchanged: 52 percent see him favorably, while 45 percent dont. A month ago, 54 percent saw him favorably and 43 percent who didnt.
The survey also squares with another recent Pennsylvania survey that reported Romney gains. A Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll of likely voters, conducted from Oct. 10 through Oct. 14 with a margin of error of 5 percentage points, found Obama leading Romney by only 4 points, 49 percent to 45 percent. That was down from an 7-point advantage for the president from the same survey taken in late September.
But another poll conducted on the Philadelphia Inquirers behalf by the Democratic firm Global Strategy Group and Republican group National Research, reported Obama held a far more comfortable edge among likely voters. He led by 8 points there, 50 percent to 42 percent, according to the Inquirer survey, taken from Oct. 4-8.
The Quinnipiac poll reported a gargantuan gender gap between support of the two candidates. Romney led among men in the state, 54 percent to 43 percent, while Obama led among women, 57 percent to 39 percent. Thats a net 29-point difference.
Pennsylvania has traditionally been among the countrys most fiercely contested presidential battlegrounds, even as Democrats have won every quadrennial battle there since George H.W. Bushs victory in 1988. But it has largely been ignored by both campaigns this cycle, who have shifted their focus to new swing states such as Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, and Virginia. TV-ad spending by either campaign, tracked and compiled by The Hotline, shows Obamas campaign hasnt spent a dollar over the air there since July; Romneys campaign has yet to make a single ad buy in Pennsylvania in the general election.
However, Ann Romney told Philadelphia radio station WPHT on Monday: "You know, the debate was huge and weve seen our numbers move all across the country, but in particular, Pennsylvania is in play, so were here and were fighting."
Its not surprising that if the general-election race is close, Pennsylvania would be competitive. Obama won the state by 10 points four years ago, but George W. Bush lost it narrowly by just over 2 points in 2004.
Whether the Romney campaign will make a last-ditch effort to win the state remains unclear. Obamas lead has shrunk, but it remains larger in the Keystone State than in battlegrounds such as Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia. And advertising in Pennsylvania is both expensive and inefficient, particularly in the sprawling Philadelphia media market. An investment capable of moving numbers would likely cost millions of dollars, and advertising in Philadelphia means paying for voters in southern New Jersey and Delaware to see the ads (each part of the citys media market), both of which are safe Democratic seats.
The Romney campaign has already calculated it can reach 270 electoral votes by winning some combination of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Making a late play for Pennsylvania would siphon money from efforts in each of them although its possible that, for strategic reasons, Romneys campaign decides to make Obamas campaign put up ads of its own there.
Quinnipiac University's latest poll surveyed 1,519 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. The poll used live interviewers, who called land lines and cell phones.
Giving Philadelphia away has my vote!
I hope for a terrible weather day as well. Here in the western part of the state, we do not identify with Philadelphia at ALL. We here (other than the Obama voting city dwellers) are good, hard working, morale people.
I’m not willing to concede PA, but I will remain realistic.
I did notice two people who had Obama signs in 2008 have Romney signs now but in my area, there strangely aren't nearly as many signs as there were in 2008. Perhaps that is a good thing. Perhaps it means all the 2008 Obama voters just aren't enthusiastic this time.
The “bitter clingers” voted for Hildebeast in the primary, not Obama. No, we did’t go for McLame...no surprise. This is the year we go for Romney.
Just checked to see the results of the Scholastic school vote.
I don’t like it: Obama won 51 percent to 45 percent, a large victory.
This is normally right.
THAT SAID, I am still thinking it is wrong this year and we will win BECAUSE much of the voting occurred prior to Romney’s surge. I am thinking and hoping this year it will be wrong again.
Re: my Scholastic post. I will add the Scholastic vote appears screwy this year anyway because it has Obama only one point behind in Texas.
The theory is that the kid polls show what parents are saying, but frankly, that is not reflective of Texas.
Other school elections this year in schools have pointed to a Romney victory as well.
Yes, PA and Murtha: “To death do us part.”
I looked at the page and saw that it projected Obama would win FL, NC, SC and AZ.
Thanks for the ping.
I live on Long Island, but I was recently on a road trip through NEPA (Pike, Wayne, and Lackawanna Counties). Romney/Ryan lawn signs outnumbered Obama signs by 5:1.
Glad to hear the same seems to be true in SWPA.
If RR can get close in PA without spending a lot of time and money going after it then it will be a blowout win elsewhere IMO.
I firmly believe that a popular vote win of more than 1.5 points will be plenty to carry the electoral college.
Unless Ohio has recently had a dramatic demographic change I just don’t see RR losing it if PA is close.
The “Scholastic” vote is heavily weighted by demographics toward the lower class and the dispossessed, many of whom do not vote.
Sadly, I’ve been to this dance before and the pretty girl always rejects me. I’ll believe it when I see it, but we need to consider PA lost for the foreseeable future.
If BO goes under 50%, then only is PA in play. But otherwise, it would be nice to make him work for it.
All we can do is do our own small part within our sphere of influence.
Convince five or six neighbors to vote against Obama, and you’ve won a victory.
The state will go as it goes. As long as this clown gets removed, that’s the main thing. If we can get Casey out as well, that’s better.
Philadelphia can NOT swing PA by itself, so lets stop worrying about the machine there. It’s the suburban counties of Philadelphia: Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery that will swing the election.
The last time PA went Republican was in 1988 when Bush Sr. won those counties. GOP voters here are primarily fiscal conservatives first, social issues last.
IMO, Romney is doing the best in the suburbs since 2000, because he’s making the economy first and doesn’t come off as “a Jesus freak” as people liked to call Bush.
I am skeptical as well because of the Texas result. It appears this year’s poll just makes no sense.
Please. This election would have to be a monstrous blowout for Romney to take PA. It hasn’t been competitive since 1988 even with GOP senators and governors.
It’s sad that this won’t be a 50 state sweep for the GOP. It’s, even, sadder that it won’t be a 57 state sweep for the GOP, either. It’s saddest of all that a very small government conservative won’t win the ‘12 POTUS race.