Posted on 10/16/2012 3:53:35 AM PDT by My Favorite Headache
President Obama now holds only a narrow lead over Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania, a state thought only a month ago to be safely in the incumbent’s corner, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac University released on Tuesday.
The survey of likely voters conducted from Oct. 12-14, reports the president is ahead of the GOP presidential nominee in the Keystone State by just 4 percentage points, 50 percent to 46 percent. Romney has gained 8 points on Obama since a late-September Quinnipiac poll, when the president led, 54 percent to 42 percent.
The latest survey is representative of national polls that show the race shifting in Romney’s favor since the first presidential debate. As in those polls, his gains correlate with increased favorability ratings. In September, just 41 percent of likely voters saw Romney favorably, while 50 percent saw him unfavorably. Now, a plurality of likely voters in the state see the former governor positively, 46 percent to 44 percent.
Obama’s number remain mostly unchanged: 52 percent see him favorably, while 45 percent don’t. A month ago, 54 percent saw him favorably and 43 percent who didn’t.
The survey also squares with another recent Pennsylvania survey that reported Romney gains. A Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll of likely voters, conducted from Oct. 10 through Oct. 14 with a margin of error of 5 percentage points, found Obama leading Romney by only 4 points, 49 percent to 45 percent. That was down from an 7-point advantage for the president from the same survey taken in late September.
But another poll conducted on the Philadelphia Inquirer’s behalf by the Democratic firm Global Strategy Group and Republican group National Research, reported Obama held a far more comfortable edge among likely voters. He led by 8 points there, 50 percent to 42 percent, according to the Inquirer survey, taken from Oct. 4-8.
The Quinnipiac poll reported a gargantuan gender gap between support of the two candidates. Romney led among men in the state, 54 percent to 43 percent, while Obama led among women, 57 percent to 39 percent. That’s a net 29-point difference.
Pennsylvania has traditionally been among the country’s most fiercely contested presidential battlegrounds, even as Democrats have won every quadrennial battle there since George H.W. Bush’s victory in 1988. But it has largely been ignored by both campaigns this cycle, who have shifted their focus to new swing states such as Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, and Virginia. TV-ad spending by either campaign, tracked and compiled by The Hotline, shows Obama’s campaign hasn’t spent a dollar over the air there since July; Romney’s campaign has yet to make a single ad buy in Pennsylvania in the general election.
However, Ann Romney told Philadelphia radio station WPHT on Monday: "You know, the debate was huge and we’ve seen our numbers move all across the country, but in particular, Pennsylvania is in play, so we’re here and we’re fighting."
It’s not surprising that if the general-election race is close, Pennsylvania would be competitive. Obama won the state by 10 points four years ago, but George W. Bush lost it narrowly by just over 2 points in 2004.
Whether the Romney campaign will make a last-ditch effort to win the state remains unclear. Obama’s lead has shrunk, but it remains larger in the Keystone State than in battlegrounds such as Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia. And advertising in Pennsylvania is both expensive and inefficient, particularly in the sprawling Philadelphia media market. An investment capable of moving numbers would likely cost millions of dollars, and advertising in Philadelphia means paying for voters in southern New Jersey and Delaware to see the ads (each part of the city’s media market), both of which are safe Democratic seats.
The Romney campaign has already calculated it can reach 270 electoral votes by winning some combination of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Making a late play for Pennsylvania would siphon money from efforts in each of them — although it’s possible that, for strategic reasons, Romney’s campaign decides to make Obama’s campaign put up ads of its own there.
Quinnipiac University's latest poll surveyed 1,519 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. The poll used live interviewers, who called land lines and cell phones.
Sadly, Pennsylvania’s vote is dictated by democrat controlled Philadelphia. Here in the west, a few Obama signs have popped up, but I have seen a TON Of “stop the war on coal, fire Obama” signs and a TON of Romney/Ryan signs. During a weekend trip to the central part of the state, the same thing, the coal miner won’t be fooled again. I think the vote will be closer this year, and everyone in the central part of the state needs to vote!!!! That didn’t happen in 2008. However, I can’t get too excited or too optomistic about an outcome different than 2008, just a closer contest.
The pubbies were going to change the electoral college distribution along the lines of Nebraska, according to congressional district with the additional two votes going to the overall gross vote winner.
They had the votes but not the balls {didn't want to be called racists}.
My state senator, Kim Ward, was pushing it but Gleason, the pubbie state chairman, fought against it.
He should be booted.
If they passed that distribution model, Romney would have won at least 15 electoral college votes with the other 6 probably going to obummer.
PA is always a tease for republicans but forcing Obama to spend more time and resources there is a win.
4 of last 5polls before this one had it 2-3. I think PA Is really, really close and could POSSIBLY go our way with another bad Zero debate.
Given the state of the economy and the utter mismanagement by Obama how can Romney be losing here?
It’s not part of the rust belt for nothing. Is there nothing that will loosen the screw?
Even if he wins Pennsylvania, make him work for it. The more effort he expends keeping states previously thought safe, the less he can spare for the battleground states. But by all means, do all you can to make him lose Pennsylvania.
Well, Pennsylvania, do you mean it this time, or are you just giving us yet another Lucy-yanking-the-football moment?
Oh, I am doing my part. I want to see Obama be forced to spend millions in PA he didn’t expect to spend. Let those liberal 1%’ers, you know, the ones who NEVER donate to the free phone crowd, spend their money here. There is a definite tide turning, but..........Philadelphia and its corruption and its democrat machine is very hard to defeat. Bob Casey is being forced to spend lots of money in an election the experts said was his without any effort.
Just get out there and vote!
“Is there nothing that will loosen that screw?”
Considering Keystoners looked the other way in 2008 when 0bama insulted them (”bitter clingers”) and openly stated his intent to cripple the coal industry, not to mention John Murtha`s deriding his constituents as “rednecks,” it`s clear that screw is in there rather tightly.
While I’m not an expert, I’m a life long resident of Pennsylvania.......It’s the union machine and the welfare crowd. The union machine is convinced the steel mills will reopen if ONLY the rich people stop making a profit. Union bosses tell them that all of the time, while the union bosses vacation in the Cayman Islands. Well, except the coal miners who voted for Obama in 2008 and are not going to make that mistake this year. The central part of PA is filled with hard working people. Miners. Farmers. Small Business owners. The city of Pittsburgh is filled with the welfare crowd who, sadly, are killing each other, we hear about a shooting every day and the rich liberals living in the trendy urban areas who “feel good” that the poor people are being given more. Of course, they don’t give them anything, they just “Feel good” about it. Some of the more conservative bedroom communites have been inundated with East Coasters, moving here because of our growing medical industry and trying to bring with them their insane liberal politics. Central PA (it was James Carville who referred to central PA as Alabama) didn’t turn out so well to vote for McCain in 2008. I think it will be different this year but enough to overcome the “dead” vote in Philly? Not so sure. But, give it a try. Just vote!
Let’s not get crazy over Pa. Remember this is the State Obama used as ‘bible reading and gun clutching’ AND THEY STILL VOTED FOR HIM. Too many liberals..Pa. can stuff it!
They even supported John Murtha, despite the insults he fired at his constituents.
Internals, internals and trends.
Everyone needs to look at the internals and weighting. The internals show a negative trend for the Democrats and especially against Casey. Here are the weigthings;
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 31% 508
Democrat 39 573
Independent 26 393
Other/DK/NA 4 45
Actual Voter Registration - current
Republican 37%
Democrat 50
NPA 13
Now consider all those coal miners and others who are democrats who are against this regime in addition to the very lopsided numbers going against Obama. One other tidbit was that the percentage of registered voters voting in 2004 was more than 2008.
The Philly dems threatened to use their "get out the vote" resources to go after Republicans in neighboring Repub-held districts. Since under the new rules, they would have needed just 50%+1 in the Philly area, the Dems could have afforded to spend ALL their resources in districts they thought they could take.
The PA Repubs thought more about any risk to their seats, than about the nation.
Another October Surprise? Romney Ahead In Penn. & New Jersey?
Can we give Philadelphia to New Jersy? If we could PA would be one of the brightest RED states in the country.
Until a Republican has the balls to question the 100% PLUS turnout that typically occurs in Philadelphia it will be hard to win a national election. Somehow, despite the population of Philadelphia decreasing dramatically over the years, the vote total out of Philly remains constant!?
The only hope, pray for a nasty, stormy, day on election day.
Quinnipiac doesn’t weight its poll results.
Thus, if they make their calls during the day, they will heavily sample democrats.
They say they are sampling cell phones. Who owns cell phones with listed numbers? Obamaphone owners.
And Quinnipiac was not in the top 25 most accurate polling firms for the 2008 election.
Quinnipiac polls are next-to-meaningless. Having said that, other more reliable polls have PA quite close.
PA Ping!
If you want on/off the PA Ping List, please freepmail me.
If you see posts of interest to Pennsylvanians, please ping me.
Thanks!
Giving Philadelphia away has my vote!
I hope for a terrible weather day as well. Here in the western part of the state, we do not identify with Philadelphia at ALL. We here (other than the Obama voting city dwellers) are good, hard working, morale people.
I’m not willing to concede PA, but I will remain realistic.
I did notice two people who had Obama signs in 2008 have Romney signs now but in my area, there strangely aren't nearly as many signs as there were in 2008. Perhaps that is a good thing. Perhaps it means all the 2008 Obama voters just aren't enthusiastic this time.
The “bitter clingers” voted for Hildebeast in the primary, not Obama. No, we did’t go for McLame...no surprise. This is the year we go for Romney.
Just checked to see the results of the Scholastic school vote.
I don’t like it: Obama won 51 percent to 45 percent, a large victory.
http://magazines.scholastic.com/Election-2012/Vote
This is normally right.
THAT SAID, I am still thinking it is wrong this year and we will win BECAUSE much of the voting occurred prior to Romney’s surge. I am thinking and hoping this year it will be wrong again.
Re: my Scholastic post. I will add the Scholastic vote appears screwy this year anyway because it has Obama only one point behind in Texas.
The theory is that the kid polls show what parents are saying, but frankly, that is not reflective of Texas.
Other school elections this year in schools have pointed to a Romney victory as well.
Yes, PA and Murtha: “To death do us part.”
I looked at the page and saw that it projected Obama would win FL, NC, SC and AZ.
Ain't happenin'.
Thanks for the ping.
I live on Long Island, but I was recently on a road trip through NEPA (Pike, Wayne, and Lackawanna Counties). Romney/Ryan lawn signs outnumbered Obama signs by 5:1.
Glad to hear the same seems to be true in SWPA.
Regards,
If RR can get close in PA without spending a lot of time and money going after it then it will be a blowout win elsewhere IMO.
I firmly believe that a popular vote win of more than 1.5 points will be plenty to carry the electoral college.
Unless Ohio has recently had a dramatic demographic change I just don’t see RR losing it if PA is close.
The “Scholastic” vote is heavily weighted by demographics toward the lower class and the dispossessed, many of whom do not vote.
Sadly, I’ve been to this dance before and the pretty girl always rejects me. I’ll believe it when I see it, but we need to consider PA lost for the foreseeable future.
If BO goes under 50%, then only is PA in play. But otherwise, it would be nice to make him work for it.
All we can do is do our own small part within our sphere of influence.
Convince five or six neighbors to vote against Obama, and you’ve won a victory.
The state will go as it goes. As long as this clown gets removed, that’s the main thing. If we can get Casey out as well, that’s better.
Philadelphia can NOT swing PA by itself, so lets stop worrying about the machine there. It’s the suburban counties of Philadelphia: Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery that will swing the election.
The last time PA went Republican was in 1988 when Bush Sr. won those counties. GOP voters here are primarily fiscal conservatives first, social issues last.
IMO, Romney is doing the best in the suburbs since 2000, because he’s making the economy first and doesn’t come off as “a Jesus freak” as people liked to call Bush.
I am skeptical as well because of the Texas result. It appears this year’s poll just makes no sense.
Please. This election would have to be a monstrous blowout for Romney to take PA. It hasn’t been competitive since 1988 even with GOP senators and governors.
It’s sad that this won’t be a 50 state sweep for the GOP. It’s, even, sadder that it won’t be a 57 state sweep for the GOP, either. It’s saddest of all that a very small government conservative won’t win the ‘12 POTUS race.
I like the idea of donating Philly to Camden, lol. We could have the Great Wall of Pennsylvania built around it.
I am here in Pa around the Reading area. I have seen one Obama sign, and the Romney signs are next to impossible to get because of demand. An empty chair in the yard will have to do.
If the United State of American needed an enema they would put the tube in Filthadelphia....and New Jersey is what would come out.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.