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To: Gay State Conservative; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; ...

If Ras is using a +3 D model for NH he is probably out of bounds. He should be using a +2 R model w/44 I for NH.

In 2008 it was D +2 (Dem 29, Rep 27, Ind 45) and in 2004 it was R+7 (Dem 25, Rep 32, Ind 44).


5 posted on 10/17/2012 7:35:51 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Perdogg

What were the NH percentages in the 2010 mid-terms, and why weren’t those used for this sample?


6 posted on 10/17/2012 7:44:02 AM PDT by Arm_Bears (Re-distribute my work ethic, not my wealth.)
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To: Perdogg

Then Ras can be off by about 10%, or in other words, Romney is winning the state by 10% with MoE included.


12 posted on 10/17/2012 8:27:50 AM PDT by Red Steel
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To: Perdogg

I think about two weeks ago Ras was bypassed by the other pollsters because of his adherence to the “+D” model. No matter. We know what’s going on and what the likely numbers are, and they aren’t pretty for Zero.


14 posted on 10/17/2012 9:10:18 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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