If Ras is using a +3 D model for NH he is probably out of bounds. He should be using a +2 R model w/44 I for NH.
In 2008 it was D +2 (Dem 29, Rep 27, Ind 45) and in 2004 it was R+7 (Dem 25, Rep 32, Ind 44).
What were the NH percentages in the 2010 mid-terms, and why weren’t those used for this sample?
Then Ras can be off by about 10%, or in other words, Romney is winning the state by 10% with MoE included.
I think about two weeks ago Ras was bypassed by the other pollsters because of his adherence to the “+D” model. No matter. We know what’s going on and what the likely numbers are, and they aren’t pretty for Zero.