Skip to comments.Gallup: R51/045
Posted on 10/17/2012 10:06:03 AM PDT by tatown
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I wonder if they have some internal polling showing a problem for Obama in California?
Well, if it’s a setup, in order to begin inflating zero’s numbers for a fictitious comeback, then Gallup can kiss their credibility good-bye. These final couple of weeks of the campaign are when pollsters need to start putting out the real numbers, or they’ll be a laughingstock.
No way Obama won over any undecideds last night. Undecideds needed to hear from Obama why another four years under him would be any different than the last four. Obama did not even attempt to make that case last night. Thus, undecideds will break this year they way the traditionally do — heavily in favor of the challenger.
I’ve been saying Romney would get 55%. Looks like he’s homing in...
“Obama did not even attempt to make that case last night. Thus, undecideds will break this year they way the traditionally do heavily in favor of the challenger.”
I think you’re right and certainly hope so. But I gotta say I’m sick of this “undecided voter”, at least the ones portrayed in the town hall and in the media in general. Like they are so above the rest of us who actually have a philosophy and long thought out ideas. Like the putz in the first question whining that one of the candidates needs to give him a job, and afterwards said that Romney looked right at him and that made him feel good and Obama’s answer comforted him. What a puss.
They are so proud of the fact they have been clueless for four years and now everyone is begging them for their opinion and their vote.
Yeah I know we need these folks but had to vent.
I think they’re giving up. I haven’t even been getting the please for the $3 dollar donations for the last week or so.
Oops, scratch that. Come to think of it, I have been getting the deadline letters. “Just think, we wanted to raise $100,000 by midnight tonight. We’re just $4187.00 from the goal. Can’t you help us to defeat Sata... er Romney?”
They’re using every scam in the book to raise quarters for the children...
I remember you thinking that Obama would struggle in PA in 2008, but I have to agree with you this go round about the enthusiasm for Obama. It’s just not there. I live in a fairly liberal college town and it was literally plastered wall to wall with Obama crap in 2008—signs, stickers, you name it.
I can honestly say I have seen more Romney signs here than Obama this year. It is night and day different. Obama isn’t winning Missouri anyway, but even in the liberal leaning area I am in he is getting remotely the public support he did in 2008. Not even close.
My guess is OH is breaking towards Romney, hard. But if it is not then the reasons would be:
Unemployment 1 point lower than national average - thank you governor Kasich
And public employees still angry over attempts at curtailing collective bargaining - again, thank you governor Kasicn.
Gallup is the best to compare to past elections as they are the oldest. They show a trend, which is for Romney. I keep reading about other polls which show Obama doing (relatively) poorly in ALL groups compared to 2008, and in some groups he is doing terribly in comparison. I will be shocked if Obama doesn’t lose by at least 5 points.
If only a more reliable polling group duplicated those results.
Call me a a conspiracy theorist, but could they be setting the table for the first president ever to come back from this big of a Gallup deficit in 3 weeks kind of scenario?
I know it’s a bit of a stretch, but could they be trying to cement him as the true “comeback kid” and therefore, all of America will need to bow down to him? I dunno...seeing this and seeing the Rasmussen just doesn’t make a lot of sense to me.
I trust Rasmussen a lot more as he has historically been very accurate. I just think that there are too many freeloaders who want to keep this guy around for four (or more) years.
Woo Hoo and this is pre-drama.......er debate! LOL
Ohio is Romneys...I guarantee it. I lived here forever, I can feel it...
Anecdotal: Every once in awhile when I’m out on appointments I’ll decide to start counting Obama/Romeny yard signs for the next 10 miles of driving. Today it was R-12 O-zero This sounds nuts, but I swear Obama signs are actually decreasing.
As far as Gallup, I’m a bit skeptical and also wonder about the ‘comeback kid’ scenario being set up. Either way it doesn’t matter. The table has been set and debate #3 is going to BURY Obama and put him neatly away. I don’t see how it can’t.
Just keep telling yourself that Rasmussen is the most accurate pollster for some time now.
This poll raises the question of over-confidence in the same way as other polls raised the question of demoralization, despondency, and depression.
Both are strategies designed to prevent voting.
These numbers are encouraging. Let’s do some more numbers crunching. Even if you pull out 1% for all of the 3rd-party candidates combined, Romney & Obama are fighting over the other 99%. 50-46 leaves 3%. History shows undecideds will ultimately choose the challenger over the incumbent. 2-2½ for Romney puts him at 52%+. That’s a win in my book!
Are you sure those arent just national ads?
This is excellent news, even though it’s only one poll. I’ll be looking at others hoping to find simiilar results. I’ve been critical of Mitt Romney and still am, but he’s our only shot at saving the nation from a second Obama term.
alternate universe. Like Fringe
52% is the target planning factor for a Republican, to overcome the expected democrat fraud factor.
My guess has been a 53% win. Every point above that will bring in a lot of coattails further down the ticket.
There is still time to effect the action with contributions and volunteering. Get out there and join we happy few who fought on St Crispins Day...
Obama Must Be Defeated!
We are getting too worked up over this. The pollsters and the media are always our enemies.
Does anyone seriously think that the media and the polls are incapable of simply printing a positive number for Obama a few days before the election?
They’ll make up whatever numbers are necessary to have a “comeback kid” moment. It will make the loser look slightly less loser to encourage the dems to go vote. And to hide all the voter fraud that will happen.
You know, “He won fairly, after all look at that comeback he had right before the election!”
The media is doing their damndest to keep this a horse race. If the poll shows that O is 6 points down, it’s gotta be downright horrid for him. Even Jimmuh Karter was shown to be ahead at this point in the election. O has been hanging around 43-47% (depending on the poll) for the last 3 years even though the news has been nothing but bad for the job that he’s doing. Where did they get this 45%? San Fran or Connecticut I’ll bet!
The only consolation for O on election day is that he won’t be beaten as bad as McGovern. It won’t mean much when he’s slinking back to Chicago with the ole ball’n’chain telling him everything he did wrong. The wife will return to her $360,000/yr each no-show jobs on various corporate boards. O will be mob boss and be hitting the gay clubs again (hitting the back door in more ways that one).
Liberals staying home doesn't affect our party but don't tell them that.
It would be fun to see a debate where the candidates just said exactly what they really thought.
Funny that you mention that. At night, I can listen to KFI 640AM out of LA. They were saying that an unusual number of Californians were turning away from 0. This is the state that allows Jerry Brown to hang around and keep drawing a paycheck, mind you, so I don’t have much faith in enough of them turning to make much difference. I wish I could’ve heard the rest of the radio show but I arrived at work and couldn’t sit and listen to it.
Lucky you, I received two today -- Debbie Wasserman Schultz wanting $5.00 and Bill Clinton boasting about the job Obama did last night...adding "he knows the feeling" ugh.
Have you seen this?
Yes, liberals, I whole-heartedly agree with your strategy!!! In fact, I urge you to spread your message of boycottting both parties across the country. If you are running ads, I would even consider contributing to your boycott of both parties! Go for it!!! Git er done!!! /s
I had the exact same reaction. Ras has R with a 2 point lead, which is probably about right. I was actually a bit worried by his swing state tracking, which today had Filth up by 2.
Heard Ras was ignoring his own weighting and went to a Dem +5. He does factor in cheating from what I remember...
What does that mean, “best for Dems”?
He weights his polls.
For what it's worth, I've been spending this week in Maui (Hawaii) with my wife and we've run into some couples from LA at some of the events we are doing. On the dinner cruise, we sat with a couple from Glendale who said they were voting for Romney and he will be the first Republican since Reagan they voted for president.
At a luau last night, we met another couple from Van Nuys and they too are for Romney. They saw me surfing Free Republic on my cellphone and perked right up. They were asking me how the debate went because they missed it.
Then today, we were on a van taking a tour of the Road to Hana and had a long discussion with another couple from LA and a couple from Seattle and they both were stating how we need a change in Washington and that they were impressed with how Romney has handled himself during this campaign.
In all cases, they brought up politics first. Maybe it's a function of the fact that people who can afford Hawaii trips tend to be conservative but I'm feeling pretty good about this election. Watch the results in California and prepare to be pleasantly surprised.
“Just keep telling yourself that Rasmussen is the most accurate pollster for some time now.”
A big AMEN to that!
Like I posted a while back, I have yet to find The Gospel According to St. Scott in ANY Bible.
If so many polls, which are over sampled toward the Democrats in pretty close to a 2008 elect model are showing Obama down like this, then the reality, which I believe is going to be closer to the 2010 model, is going to be breathtaking.
If it keeps up like this...and we have to work hard to make sure that it does...we may be looking at a 58%/43%, or even a 60%/40% victory and a landslide in the electoral college.
I pray it is so. It is precisely what we need to definitively put this madness to rest.
At the debate this Monday, prior to the debate, I hope Romney smiles, shakes Obama’s hand, and then leans in, sort of like Obama did to the Russian PM, and say,
After this election, youre going to have all of that flexability you talked to Medvedev about...because youre going to be looking for a new job...playing even more golf. Im going to bury you tonight.
Obamas False Narratives
An American Lament in 2012
Yes, in ‘08 I completely blew it, I just underestimated entirely how bad the Anti-Bush sentiment was, and how depressed the republican vote would be that year.
Obama swamped in Philly and republican and overall vote numbers were down across much of the T. I of course saw through Obamas flim flam nonsense from get go, but far too many others did not.
4 years later its not remotely the same dynamic... people can’t project on him things that aren’t there, now he has a record, and its one of complete failure and he can’t run or hide from it.
His entire campaign was nothing more than try to paint Romney as too extreme, and that was never going to work. For a Politician Romney is about as boy scout as you can get. He’s not perfect, but trying to paint him as some boogie man extremist was a doomed proposition from the start, but given Obamas record, it was only option they had so they went with it.
And like everything else Obama has done since entering the White House... Failed Miserably.
I hope to GOD that I am wrong, but I fully expect Gallup etc to tank for Obama the rest of the way, starting Today/Thursday
I pray I am wrong, but highly doubt it.
Also Fox is talking about it`s poll that comes out Friday, unfortunately I see Fox poll tankking for Obama as well as the others...Will be all lies for sure, designed to sway election to ZERO.
Fox has had the wool pulled over their eyes, first for years with Opinion Dynamics, now by another liberal polling firm they use... Pretty disgraceful on Fox part I must say
I would love nothing more than to be proven wrong on all counts...Here`s hoping
While it is ok to pretend that this is neck and neck and that Romney has not sealed the deal, the reality is that The Disaster has no chance. He is going to lose in a landslide and it will be bigger after Monday.
its not over...