Gallup Election 2012 Likely Voters Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney (Romney leads by 6)

Gallup ^ | 10/17/2012

[SeekAndFind]

All registered voters are asked: "Suppose the presidential election were held today, and it included Barack Obama and Joe Biden as the Democratic Party's candidates and Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan as the Republican Party's candidates. Who would you vote for [ROTATED: Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats (or) Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, the Republicans]?" Those who are undecided are further asked if they lean more toward Obama and Biden or Romney and Ryan and their leanings are incorporated into the results.

These results are for likely voters, who are the respondents Gallup deems most likely to vote based on their responses to a series of questions asking about current voting intentions, thought given to the election, and past voting behavior. Each seven-day rolling average is based on telephone interviews with approximately 2,700 likely voters; margin of error is ±2 percentage points.

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[LS]

And we’re supposed to believe that CO and OH are close, when OH outperforms national average by half a point? LOL.

[2ndDivisionVet]

So Gov. Mitt Romney is up outside the margin of error for the first time, leading 51-45? Even though Eric Holder is suing Gallup? Think what the real numbers must be!!

[InterceptPoint]

LOL. Looks like Gallup needed some margin in there to justify the BIG OBAMA COMEBACK that started today and will show in tomorrows polls.

I’m sticking with Rasmussen.

[MuttTheHoople]

And with Gallup oversampling Dems +6 when the election will be Republicans +3, that means Romney is 60-36 over Obama right now.

[Colonel Kangaroo]

The problem is the Electoral College which is going to make it hard for Romney. It looks like Mitt is going to win red states by huge margins but Obama winning blue states by smaller margins is going to run up a large number of electoral votes.

[Gumdrop]

So, how’s that for post 2 POTUS debates and post 1 VP debate? Looks like Romney/Ryan team is still surging.

[Truth is a Weapon]

There has never been an election in history (I think I am correct) where a candidate won 51% of the vote and did not get an electoral victory. In Bush vs. Gore, Gore won the popular vote and Bush won the electoral college but neither candidate got 49% of the vote.

The current margin is 51 to 45 with 4% undecided or other. If 0bama gets all the undecideds he cannot win. And he won’t get all the undecideds.

The question is, is Gallup accurate?

[AndyTheBear]

And with Gallup oversampling Dems +6 when the election will be Republicans +3, that means Romney is 60-36 over Obama right now.

I have been wondering what party break down was in this sample, are you sure it was a D+6?

[MrB]

2 to 1 repudiation would be sweet.

[SDShack]

This will probably tighten over the coming days given the media spin for 0zer0 on Debate #2. But I am heartened about one thing. I looked at the Gallup poll yesterday that had Romney up by 5. The internals showed 0zer0 doing worse in EVERY demographic in 2012 compared to 2008, many be double digits. EVERY ONE! Even minorities and youth. This just confirms that it will be very hard for 0zer0 to get as many votes in 2012 as he did in 2008, which basically says this is Romney’s to lose.

[CaptainK]

1876, Rutherford B. Hayes won 47.9% of the vote and 185 electoral votes to defeat Samuel J. Tilden with 51% of the popular vote and 184 electoral votes.