Posted on 10/17/2012 2:24:21 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
The IBD tracking polls have been shifting in and out when it comes to the Jewish vote, but over the last week it’s been a close race between Romney and Obama. And in the last week, Romney has been consistently ahead of Reagan’s share of the Jewish vote. And in some polls, even the share of every Republican in the last 100 years.
While Reagan did receive the highest share of the Jewish vote in the last 50 years, Eisenhower did better in 1956. Hughes and Harding pulled in 43-45 percent in the 1916-1920 elections, but that was before Eastern European immigration processed through the educational systems of the burgeoning liberal state transformed the American Jewish community from a conservative Spanish-German group into what it is now.
New Deal fanaticism gave FDR and Truman a tremendous share of the Jewish vote that began to fall off in the 50s as depression and war gave way to prosperity and suburbanization. Stevenson’s hostility to Israel may have helped bring Eisenhower to nearly Hughes and Harding levels, but it’s likely that comfort and stability played a larger role with Eisenhower picking up 4 percent more in his second election.
Jews chose the JFK/LBJ dynasty over Nixon, but drifted away from McGovern and back to Nixon, so that Nixon in 72 had a higher percentage of the Jewish vote than any Republican until Reagan, giving him the 2nd highest share of the Jewish vote in the last 50 years. Carter had the lowest share of the Jewish vote for a Democrat, so there’s no doubt that his anti-Israel attitude hurt him, but so did the economy. And it’s important to remember that most of Reagan’s 39 percent were also part of Nixon’s 35 percent.
The Jewish vote, like the national vote, is somewhat cyclical. There’s a liberal share of the pie that is unwinnable, but also has no long term future for simple demographic reasons that are already taking hold in New York City. And there is a share that is up for grabs.
The cycle now appears to be shifting away from the Democrats who have blown the economy and the Middle East, both issues of concern to Jewish voters and all voters.
Romney may not beat Reagan’s share of the Jewish vote in the actual election, but right now he’s polling ahead of him. And often ahead of every Republican in the last 100 years.
A shift this major might have all sorts of implications for the future.
Jews with skin in the game are the rep supporters
the truth is that there are Jewish Jews and there are JInos.
Because of the Holocaust the latter has dominated the last 75 years, but since Jewish Jews have larger families with Jewish children , the demographics are with us.
Catholics have made up the backbone of the Big City Democrat machines for over a century.
Fraud only works at the margins it cannot stop a landslide.
The switch was made in 1936, 1932 was the last time they voted republican, then in 1936 they instantly became what they are today, an overwhelmingly democrat voting block.
Going by that logic, since Irish-Americans in big cities were staunch Democrat bosses for a century, then Americans of Irish ancestry as a whole in the United States are "wholly owned by the Democratic Party"
In the cities that has been the case.
Democrat control of Chicago has been possible because they control the Irish vote, the Italian vote and the Polish vote.
Certainly enough Protestants vote Democrat to give the machine big victories but I would guess that they do make up the majority of the opposition. You could probably say for sure.
In all honesty, I've never heard anything about Adlai Stevenson being hostile to Israel.
Perhaps Eisenhower's good showings - for a Republican - with Jewish voters had more to do with the association of him with defeating Nazi Germany in WWII and the liberation of some of the Nazi concentration camps.
Chicago was about 65% Democrat in Kennedy's day, today it's over 80% Democrat (I think Gore got 81% of the Chicago vote when he ran against Bush in 2000, and won 49 out of 50 wards. Obama won all 50 but he's "from" Chicago so his numbers weren't typical) The non-Hispanic white population is now less than 32% of Chicagoans, so the Irish/Italian/Polish don't "control" much anymore except for elections in heavily white communities (it really helps to have an Irish last name if you're running for judge in Crook County, and a Polish last name if you're running for a legislative office in a white majority district). The south side is heavily black and protestant (usually Baptist), and overwhelmingly Democrat... they routinely get over 90% of the vote in most of those wards, far more than in the Irish-Catholic wards, where Republicans still get 20-30% of the vote typically. Then there's the hispanic wards, they're pretty heavily Catholic and also strongly Democrat, moreso than the non-hispanic white Catholic wards, but not as much as the black wards. The white protestants in Chicago don't have large enough numbers where anyone has really studied their demographics, though they tend to be from very liberal denominations (United Methodist Church, ELCA, there's a heavy Unitarian presence in the 19th ward although I wouldn't count them as "Christian", let alone protestant) Probably the non-religious secular whites have a bigger influence in Chicago than white protestants, and they also uniformly vote Democrat
I imagine the situation is similar in New York, St. Louis, Nashville (which has very few Catholics), Atlanta, Seattle, Boston (which is extremely Catholic), Philadelphia, San Francisco, Detroit, etc. Basically the Democrats have turned EVERY demographic in those cities in loyal Democrat voters. It's not like they just took over the Catholic communities but non-Catholics in urban cities are voting GOP. If that was the case, the Dems wouldn't be able to swing states like Illinois and Pennsyvania into the Dem column by winning HUGE in the cities.
And since Catholics in the suburbs and rural areas are NOT wedded to the Democratic Party (though sadly the suburbs in Chicago, Pennsyvania, Ohio, etc.), the overall "Catholic vote" nationally is now 50% Republican. Quite different from the "Jewish vote" where they typically vote overwhelmingly Democrat no matter where they're living. The division there is Orthodox Jew vs. all the other types of Jews, rather than urban vs. rural.
(I despise Ike. He helped the Muslims Brotherhood and Arab Socialists and the USSR with this. He also supported the lunatic idea of "Atoms for peace". As far as I know, the only competent thing he did after 1946, was Operation Wetback.)
But pro-Israeli activists haven`t forgotten Stevenson`s legislative record. As a senator, Stevenson had sharp differences with the Israeli lobby on issues concerning the Mideast, including a 1979 vote to cut military assistance to Israel by 10 percent and support of a 1978 weapons sale to Saudi Arabia. Stevenson also met with PLO leader Yasser Arafat, which rankled the senator`s pro-Israeli critics. Stevenson`s photograph was recently featured on the dust jacket of a book critical of the Israeli lobby and written by former U.S. Rep. Paul Findley (R., Ill.).
Wrong Stevenson. This was his son, Adlai Stevenson, III, a total leftist smuck. He was hated by most of those in Washington, including some Democrats.
His father was a gentleman (1950’s, candidate for president, 1952, UN representative, etc.).
The Jews I know, even in my synagogue, are quietly turning away from Obama though our rabbi is a big Obama supporter and White House visitor.
No predictions but Romney is going to get a significant amount of the Jewish vote. Even liberal Jews have seen Obama betray one ally after another - Colombia; Honduras; the peoples protests in Iran 2-3 years ago; Iraq; and now Afghanistan.
His Moslem ties are troublesome with a capital “T”. The fact that Obama is a lying, narcistic, delusional marxist is also not not on my religious brethern.
Michele “Miss Yeti of 2012” Obama is not your typical “Jewish mothers”. She has none of the warmth of a “Mrs. Goldberg” or even a “Mrs. Seinfeld”. More like the “Wicked Witch of the West” or the witch in “Sleeping Beauty.”
Gonna be fun voting on Nov. 6th.
Yes, expat1000, the Adlai Stevenson who was the losing Dem candidate for President in 1952 and again in 1956 died suddenly and unexpectedly some time in the 1960s. I knew he had been long gone by 1979, because I recall seeing his grave site in his home town of Bloomington, Ill. in 1970.
IIRC, Adlai Stevenson was never a US Senator. He was the governor of Illinois before or at the time he ran for president.
OK thanks for the correction. I had a vague memory of hearing about some ill feeling from relatives towards “Adlai Stevenson” so did a quick search and that is what I came up with.
Good to see there are historical experts here as well as on just about everything else under the sun. ;-)
Nope. Nixon got over 30% of AA vote in 1960 but by the time of his landslide victort in 72, AA support for Nixon dropped below 14%.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/139880/Election-Polls-Presidential-Vote-Groups.aspx#6
Well dang, I got that one completely wrong!
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They hate Republicans because they think we're all Christian.....and they aren't the least bit afraid of the Muslims like they are Christians!
You can't fix stupid.
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