Skip to comments.The Anatomy of an Electoral College Tie (Mapping out the possible scenarios)
Posted on 10/17/2012 5:05:08 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
By: Atlas Research Team
What happens if the Electoral College ends up in a tie? Several people have written about it recently, and while the chances are relatively low, its helpful to know what happens if it occurs.
In the event of a 269 to 269 tie, the newly elected House of Representatives would be responsible for deciding the outcome of the presidential election. Each states delegation in the U.S. House would vote once for President and each U.S. Senator would cast a vote for Vice President. At least in the House, one vote per state means that smaller states have an enormous amount of influence when compared to larger states: California receives one total vote, as does Wyoming.
There are over 32 tie combination scenarios using the 11 swing states. Even if you take out Pennsylvania and Michigan, which many no longer consider swing states, there are still five possible tie scenarios.
Using Cook Political Report ratings as a basis to project the outcome of a tie, the math does not look promising for Democrats. Twenty-five states have a majority Republican congressional delegation and are essentially guaranteed to vote Republican. Democrats have eleven states (CA, CT, DE, HI, MA, MD, NM, NY, OR, VT, ME) solidly in their corner. The remaining fourteen states are electoral battleground states, meaning the outcome of this years House races will determine the partisanship of the state and, therefore, the delegations vote if there is a tie. Three states delegations (IL, RI, WA) will likely end up voting Democrat; two states (FL, MT) will likely vote Republican, and eight states (AZ, CO, IA, MI, MN, NV, NH, WI) can be considered toss-ups.
One state, New Jersey, has the distinction of very likely ending deadlocked, although Democrats will win the state should they score an upset in NJ-03, currently rated as Lean Republican.
Without a strong coattails effect from President Obama (and a subsequent wave election where Democrats capture almost all the seats considered in-play), it is unlikely that Democrats will capture the seats they need in order to control twenty-six state delegations. A tied electoral college would provide interesting political theater, especially among states with potentially deadlocked delegations, but the overall outcome would be a foregone conclusion.p>
This exercise underscores the success Republicans have had in gerrymandering states. Of the eleven safe Democratic delegations, President Obama is almost assured of carrying all of them. Republicans, however, have a better shot at locking up delegations in such swing states as Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Pennsylvania. Furthermore, solid blue states like Rhode Island, Washington, Illinois, Michigan, and Minnesota have delegations that are ostensibly up for grabs.
Mitt Romney wins Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin, while Barack Obama wins Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire and Virginia.
ANOTHER DEADLOCK SCENARIO:
Romney wins in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, and Virginia; Obama carries New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin.
EDIT TO ADD:
If you add Michigan and Pennsylania to the mix, neither of which are considered core swing states but both of which are within 4-5 points according to the RCP averages, there are 32 tie combination scenarios.
Worst case scenario...Romney is President and Plugs is VP.
Civil War 2.0 .....
Nice picture to dream about. Ain’t going to happen again in our lifetimes ( I think ).
Come on New Mexico... get with it (must be too many immigrants from California)
PS That is what happened to Oregon and Washington
“If you add Michigan and Pennsylania to the mix, neither of which are considered core swing states ....”
Therein lies the problem with the Rasmussen analysis of the overall Swing State poll numbers—they are counting MI and PA as swing states. Take away those two very populous states, which are going to be very difficult for Romney to win, and the Swing State percentages would be very different.
Really, how about Romney as president and Barry or Hillary as VP?
Mitt will not be able to sleep in the same bed two nights in a row and start hiring food tasters.
Add PA, OH and WI to Romneys column. Now where are we at?
Do Senators have the right to vote for whomever they wish?
Not that I think it will be close. Mitt needs more foreign policy prep before Monday's final debate so he cleanly hits all those easy targets. That will clinch his race. Then he should start making appearances with any Senate candidates he can help, such as ND. Bring home every such race possible. Some may be tricky to strategize. Would a Mitt appearance hurt or help in MA, ME or CT senate races? How to help in MO without mentioning the candidate? But for Pres. Mitt to succeed he'll need as many GOP senators as he can get. And the more conservative GOP senators we can elect the less the RINOs can hold us back. The more of both we gain this time the easier it will be to reach 60, for the really heavy lifting, in 2014.
POTUS could make Biteme actually do something productive instead of just sloppin at the gubmit trough, which would so stress the Gaffer out that he’d soon resign.
Second, even the blue States are probably so un-enamered by biden that they would vote against him.
The House elects the President and the Senate chooses the Vice President. This hasn’t happened since 1824 and I don’t expect it to happen this year.
RE: Add PA, OH and WI to Romneys column. Now where are we at?
If Romney wins both PA and OH, then it is a landslide.
Nope. A tie goes to the House, with each state getting an equal vote. There are a lot more red states than blue states. Romney wins.
You heard it here first.
Just curious...what if that House vote ends up in a 25-25 tie? Who would break the tie in that scenario? I assume the sitting VP would break a tie in the Senate.