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Obama’s New Firewall: Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada(goodbye N Carolina, Va, Florida)
National Review ^ | October 17, 2012 5:05 P.M | By Jim Geraghty

Posted on 10/17/2012 5:46:51 PM PDT by drewh

Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama’s team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has “significant leads” in all four places.

It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling.

Chalk one up for Suffolk University Political Research Center’s David Paleologos, which said they would stop polling North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida last week.

Fascinatingly, the description of Plouffe’s comments puts New Hampshire in the “firewall” pile, when the last three polls have Romney up by 4 (ARG) a tie (Suffolk) and Obama ahead by 1 (Rasmussen).

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Florida; US: Iowa; US: Nevada; US: New Hampshire; US: North Carolina; US: Ohio; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: davidplouffe; firewall; iowa; nevada; new; newhampshire; obama; obamas; ohio; plouffe
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1 posted on 10/17/2012 5:47:00 PM PDT by drewh
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To: drewh

A shame New York and California are lock Dem states. Heck of a lot of electoral votes to spot the Rats.

Ohio might be this election’s decoding state (like Florida in 2000).


2 posted on 10/17/2012 5:49:38 PM PDT by TigerClaws
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To: drewh

We march onward until the conquest is complete. These shall fall to us too.


3 posted on 10/17/2012 5:50:11 PM PDT by DarthVader (Politicians govern out of self interest, Statesmen govern for a Vision greater than themselves)
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To: TigerClaws

trust me my state si gong well for Romney but sadly Mack needs help and as well as we need ot beat wassermann carpet bagger big mouth liar


4 posted on 10/17/2012 5:53:00 PM PDT by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: DarthVader

I think Iowa is where the dam breaks. The nubmers there are close


5 posted on 10/17/2012 5:54:14 PM PDT by drewh
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To: TigerClaws

it’s a shame that they have two of the biggest states locked in, shame PA does not not wake the hell up and turn GOP


6 posted on 10/17/2012 5:56:14 PM PDT by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: drewh

It is beginning to look like PA might just be the dam breaker. If it goes Red, Obama is done by 10 pm EST.


7 posted on 10/17/2012 5:59:45 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: drewh

They are simply trying to hold back a tsunami with a sippy cup. They are merely attempting to make Obama’s loss less embarrassing than Carter’s and Mondale’s.

That they are trying to hold on to states that they normally get on their side speaks volumes......Iowa? come on, this is gonna get really funny on November 6th..........


8 posted on 10/17/2012 6:01:36 PM PDT by Red Badger (Is it just me, or is Hillary! starting to look like Benjamin Franklin?.................)
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To: MNJohnnie

Is PA really in reach?


9 posted on 10/17/2012 6:02:01 PM PDT by rdl6989 (January 20, 2013 The end of an error.)
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To: manc

How does Jax look?.....


10 posted on 10/17/2012 6:03:12 PM PDT by Red Badger (Is it just me, or is Hillary! starting to look like Benjamin Franklin?.................)
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To: rdl6989

yes


11 posted on 10/17/2012 6:03:55 PM PDT by eartotheground
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To: Red Badger

To be honest with you, I never envisioned an election where Romney wins Virginia but loses Iowa. I would have considered Virginia the tougher battle simply because there are so many Federal workers there who keep the economy on solid footing.


12 posted on 10/17/2012 6:04:24 PM PDT by Alberta's Child ("If you touch my junk, I'm gonna have you arrested.")
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To: Alberta's Child

Sure, I think Romney should sweep all kinds of states, but Ohio still is looking like the big enchilada.


13 posted on 10/17/2012 6:07:18 PM PDT by Williams (No Obama)
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To: drewh

Obama has no business winning Ohio. The state economy has been in shambles over the last four years. I was out there on a business trip earlier this year and saw some things that I have never seen before outside of urban sh!t-holes like Detroit, Gary, East St. Louis, etc. I’m talking about highway interchanges between cities, where 1-2 fast food joints and 1-2 gas stations are all closed up. I couldn’t believe it ... those are the kinds of places that never seem to disappear in semi-rural and rural areas along interstate highways.


14 posted on 10/17/2012 6:08:00 PM PDT by Alberta's Child ("If you touch my junk, I'm gonna have you arrested.")
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To: rdl6989

Drop the Democrat polling firm PPP out of the average and the trend is our friend in PA. With three weeks to go and NJ turning from Like Obama to Leans Obama, PA is not out of reach.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html


15 posted on 10/17/2012 6:08:32 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: MNJohnnie
Iowa polls don't close until 9PM Central. So we won't know that one for awhile. Not to be a negative Nellie, but I am seeing a lot of 0bama signs here in Iowa, or at least in Central Iowa, where I tend to travel around. Of course I get a little foggy over 4 years, but I think I'm seeing about as many as I did back then.

I am seeing very few of the 2x1 Romney signs that people would typically put in their yards. I still think Iowa will go Romney, but it is going to be close.

The economy locally is pretty good. Farmers are making the big bucks because farm commodity prices are so high. And that trickles down (yeah, that really works) to the rest of us.

16 posted on 10/17/2012 6:08:35 PM PDT by Pappy Smear (Steve King for Congress!)
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To: drewh

“Firewall”???

Let’s see:

Ohio = Republican Voter Registrations have significantly outpaced Dem’s this year.

NH = Obama is so desperate he’s back there campaigning for their 4 Electoral votes....

Iowa = Strong trend Romney’s direction!

Nevada = Frank Luntz had a group largely made up of former Obama supporters and 70% of them are now inclined to vote for Romney.


17 posted on 10/17/2012 6:09:59 PM PDT by G Larry (Which of Obama's policies do you think I'd support if he were white?)
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To: Williams

I also can’t imagine a scenario where Romney wins NH but loses Ohio. That seems @ss-backwards to me, but I guess Romney’s New England background plays well among the semi-conservative folks of the Granite State.


18 posted on 10/17/2012 6:10:38 PM PDT by Alberta's Child ("If you touch my junk, I'm gonna have you arrested.")
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To: Pappy Smear

If NH-NC-VA-FLA-OH are red, Iowa will be the cherry on top. If PA is red, we don’t need OH


19 posted on 10/17/2012 6:10:45 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: rdl6989
I'll say PA is in reach, but not certain.

Coal country to the immediate north and especially to the east of Pittsburgh is FURIOUS -- I've seen many "Fire 0bama" signs on the US 22 and PA Turnpike corridors. This includes the areas that were Murtha's stomping grounds around Johnstown. This should take some of the usual support that might otherwise have come from the blue dog Dems around Pittsburgh.

I'll let some of the Eastern PA FReepers verify this, but other posters have been saying that the counties surrounding Philadelphia, which have shifted heavily Dem in the last 20 years, seem also to be less supportive of 0bama than they have been of other Dems lately.

The degree of Philly vote fraud is always a question... I think they're going to have to work overtime this year if they want to manufacture this one.

Also, Casey is up this year... hopefully Romney will have some coattails and help deliver a victory for Smith.

20 posted on 10/17/2012 6:14:05 PM PDT by GCC Catholic
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To: Alberta's Child

Farmers have become some of the biggest recipients of government largess. Corn farmers look at things like the ethanol mandate as key to their survival, while many Federal workers could make it in the private sector — and many use Federal jobs as a stepping stone to higher-paid private sector jobs.

That, and there’s something in the water near the Mississippi river. The western part of Wisconsin, most of Minnesota and Iowa are just full of liberals who are resistant to reality.


21 posted on 10/17/2012 6:14:05 PM PDT by MediaMole
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To: Red Badger
go there quite often and I see nothing but Romney signs every day I am there, there is also 3 huge banners in different places at 3 different businesses.
One says Romney
another is we built this we fixed it you broke it and you're fired and the another saying about socialism.

As for yard signs , well I have not seen one and most of the stickers I see which are rare are by blacks driving\\My county St Johns, well that goes nearly 70% republican anyway and we outnumber Dems and nonparty combined
Flagler county went to oabma last time due to all the yankee liberals moving there years ago.

I see about 3 to one for Romney and still no obama yard signs.

Clay and Putnam county just like JAX

I'm on I-95 every day and still Romney out numbers obama stickers with FL plates.

It's looking good here but lets nor forget the voter fraud though we have Scott as our GOV now and not Crist

22 posted on 10/17/2012 6:19:18 PM PDT by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: All

This election has always been about Ohio. The Buckeye state holds the key to the 2012 election. Be on the lookout for cars parked near election locations for a few days, positioned with mysterious boxes filled with ballots. I expect a few “ooops, look what we found, a few thousand ballots. Even though this district is already at 102%, we should make sure that these get counted too”


23 posted on 10/17/2012 6:21:11 PM PDT by newnhdad (Where will you be during the Election Riots of 2012/2013?)
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To: MNJohnnie

if we take NH, FL, VA, NC then the midwest will see those results while they are still open and maybe help us to get out our votes and keep them at home.

I still find it hard to see why OH and IO would go Dem but then they have a big union in one state and farmers milking the money from the feds


24 posted on 10/17/2012 6:23:19 PM PDT by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: MNJohnnie

Any new polling or evidence for this?


25 posted on 10/17/2012 6:24:43 PM PDT by STJPII
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To: Alberta's Child
Plouffe apparently can't read basic spreadsheets. Ds START OH down 175,000 votes from their 08 levels in the absentees alone . . .NET.

The Rs, I'm told, only need to make up 60,000 votes, or basically flip 30,000 or have a bunch of Ds stay home. Ham and Warren alone will probably turn out close to that 60,000.

26 posted on 10/17/2012 6:29:31 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: manc

Driving around the Dayton/Montgomery County (OH) area, it’s 3:1 Romney, but further south, it gets to be 10 or 12:1. The only Obama signs I see are in ritzy old-money Oakwood, white liberal guilt territory. Even there, it’s 50/50.


27 posted on 10/17/2012 6:31:44 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: drewh
I think Iowa is where the dam breaks. The nubmers there are close

Iowa is where this nightmare started - it would only be fitting that that is where it ends as well.

28 posted on 10/17/2012 6:33:38 PM PDT by Mygirlsmom (People on stage at 2nd debate: 1 Romney 2 Eye Candy 3 Lie Candy)
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To: TigerClaws

You would have to cut off everything that touches Route 87 from Manhattan to Albany in order to unshackle the rest of us.


29 posted on 10/17/2012 6:51:28 PM PDT by printhead (Standard & Poor - Poor is the new standard.)
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To: rdl6989

I live just to the east of Pittsburgh. An area that leans Democrat. I have a Democratic house member Jason Altmire. He is gone now because of redistricting. I drive around Pittsburgh and I see 20 Romney signs for every one Obama sign. I have talked to total strangers and we feel each other out by discussing the economy. Once that is complete, we confide in each other that we want Romney to win. This has happened over and over again. I have not met one stranger or someone I knew that wants Obama to win. I think Romney wins PA on the way to a landslide victory. I have fireworks ready. If Romney wins or Romney wins PA before 10 pm, I will set them off in my yard. I new Independence day. I have a retired school teacher that told me her and her husband and her family in Fl changed from Democrats to Republicans this year to vote for Mitt in the Primaries. A SCHOOL TEACHER! The people get it. We are seeing as many Fire Obama save coal signs as Romney signs. I count them as Romney signs.


30 posted on 10/17/2012 6:56:13 PM PDT by Plumres
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To: LS

Did you see this? LOL

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10/17/obama-3-in-ohio-surveyusa/comment-page-1/#comment-11735


31 posted on 10/17/2012 7:06:51 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: drewh

look at the electoral numbers. If Obambi loses OH and NH ... it seems impossible for him.

So NH becomes Romney’s firewall. Take OH and NH and he’s got it, even without NV CO IA WI. NH could be this year’s deciding state, assuming a 50/50 election.


32 posted on 10/17/2012 7:11:36 PM PDT by campaignPete R-CT (campaigning for local conservatives)
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To: Williams

Your right. As of now it all hangs on OH. Like to see a trend in the polling data.


33 posted on 10/17/2012 7:19:54 PM PDT by Lou Budvis (I'm voting AB0/RYAN)
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To: MNJohnnie

I find it very difficult to believe that Romney will win nationally and not it Ohio. It will defy history.


34 posted on 10/17/2012 7:21:24 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Perdogg

If Romney wins the popular vote nationally by more than 2 percent, he should win Ohio.


35 posted on 10/17/2012 7:27:21 PM PDT by mrs9x
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To: drewh
pictures of Romney crowd in VA today......10,000

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10/17/10000-rally-for-romney-in-leesburg-virginia/

Obamam crowd was 2000 today in Iowa according to Iowa Gazette newspaper:)

36 posted on 10/17/2012 7:28:21 PM PDT by TornadoAlley3 (Obama is everything Oklahoma is not.)
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To: Perdogg

Winning campaigns never speak of firewalls. Instead, they seek to expand the playing field.

Obama’s minions writing off Florida and Virginia speak volumes. Obama is losing.


37 posted on 10/17/2012 7:28:52 PM PDT by mrs9x
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To: LS

LS -

Looking at the Cuyahoga numbers so far, about 47,000 Democrats have returned absentee ballots out of 123,000 issued to Democrats (approx. 38%). Republicans have returned 16,700 out of approximately 49,000 issued to Rs (approx. 34%). So right now the D’s are slightly ahead in Cuyahoga County.

Keep in mind that according to the George Mason website, in 2008, about 265,000 were early votes. As of today, a total of 240,000 absentee ballots have been issued. Presumably, a percentage of those absentee ballots are never returned (I don’t know how much).

Basically, the Ds are going to have to make up some ground in Cuyahoga County to keep pace statewide.


38 posted on 10/17/2012 7:43:21 PM PDT by mrs9x
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To: Williams

Romney is going to take Ohio. I don’t think its even going to be close. Ohio has had enough of the liar-in-chief.


39 posted on 10/17/2012 7:52:51 PM PDT by A message
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To: LS

LS

I’m on business in the area, right now in Springboro. My business involves significant travel and I agree all I’m seeing are Romney/Ryan signs.


40 posted on 10/17/2012 7:56:21 PM PDT by A message
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To: drewh
a few weeks ago it was hard to see a way to 270 without ohio, now it just looks like icing on the cake. i think nc is already in the bag
41 posted on 10/17/2012 7:57:36 PM PDT by paul51 (11 September 2001 - Never forget)
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To: paul51

I still think R/R need Ohio... that one won’t get called until the wee hours of the morning after. Things to look for are the margins in FL, NH (if R/R win), and NC. VA will be a very late call. I think CO and NV are also key here. PA is fool’s gold - big time trap - so glad R/R aren’t spending money there. If PA goes R/R it will be part of a larger tidal wave.


42 posted on 10/17/2012 8:10:25 PM PDT by Tuxedo (Drink Tea - not Kool-Aid.)
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To: Tuxedo
they can win without ohio. VA, NC,FL,CO, NH, and WS is one way
43 posted on 10/17/2012 9:05:06 PM PDT by paul51 (11 September 2001 - Never forget)
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To: paul51

sorry WS sB WI


44 posted on 10/17/2012 9:06:05 PM PDT by paul51 (11 September 2001 - Never forget)
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To: Red Badger

But I thought McRomney was McLame II, just happy to be the nominee, not trying to win?


45 posted on 10/17/2012 9:13:59 PM PDT by karnage
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To: LS

Out in the West San Fernando Valley, I see three or four Obama bumper stickers every day, maybe one or two Romney...


46 posted on 10/17/2012 9:17:24 PM PDT by karnage
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To: drewh

I grew up in Iowa, but moved away in 2001. Lived there 38 years. Iowa tends to flip back and forth between Rep & Dem in Pres cycles. 0zer0 carried it big in 2008. In fact, Iowa gave 0zer0 his start by winning the first caucus big. I think Iowa is anxious to undo its mistake. I predict Iowa flips to Romney this cycle.
Also, I was on vacation in Reno a week or so ago. Surprised to see several Anti-0zer0 billboards around town. Not just little yard signs...I’m talking big full size interstate billboards. That gives me hope that Nevada may really be in play and could also flip.
I don’t know about NH. But agree with others that think maybe Romney has some coattails left from his time in MA.
Ohio is the real prize. I pray it goes to Romney, otherwise we have to run the tables just about everywhere else.
If Romney takes IA, NV, NH, but loses OH, there could be a 269-269 tie in the electorial college. That means the House votes for Pres, and if the GOP controls it.. it means Romney. Romney better have won the popular vote big, or else it will be Florida 2000 all over again... this time with several states. If Romney wins by GOP votes in the house. I shudder to think of the race riots that will happen.


47 posted on 10/17/2012 9:59:06 PM PDT by SDShack (0zer0care = "The Final Solution" - Socialized Euthanasia Healthcare)
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To: karnage

“Out in the West San Fernando Valley, I see three or four Obama bumper stickers every day, maybe one or two Romney...”

There’s a reason for that disparity! The RATS key your car’s paint if you have any Republican campaign stuff on it in CA.


48 posted on 10/17/2012 10:23:47 PM PDT by vette6387
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To: rdl6989

I would think that Killadelphia is an Obama stronghold, but I also have hope that the Pennsylvania coal miners rally together and turn the state bright red.


49 posted on 10/17/2012 10:35:26 PM PDT by Prole (Please pray for the families of Chris and Channon. May God always watch over them)
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To: vette6387

Saw a “Mitt” window sticker today. First Romney sticker on a car that I have seen. I have seen a few Obama stickers. (CA).


50 posted on 10/17/2012 11:14:31 PM PDT by married21 (As for me and my house, we will serve the Lord.)
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