Skip to comments.Obama’s New Firewall: Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada(goodbye N Carolina, Va, Florida)
Posted on 10/17/2012 5:46:51 PM PDT by drewh
Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obamas team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has significant leads in all four places.
It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obamas position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obamas leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling.
Chalk one up for Suffolk University Political Research Centers David Paleologos, which said they would stop polling North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida last week.
Fascinatingly, the description of Plouffes comments puts New Hampshire in the firewall pile, when the last three polls have Romney up by 4 (ARG) a tie (Suffolk) and Obama ahead by 1 (Rasmussen).
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
A shame New York and California are lock Dem states. Heck of a lot of electoral votes to spot the Rats.
Ohio might be this election’s decoding state (like Florida in 2000).
We march onward until the conquest is complete. These shall fall to us too.
trust me my state si gong well for Romney but sadly Mack needs help and as well as we need ot beat wassermann carpet bagger big mouth liar
I think Iowa is where the dam breaks. The nubmers there are close
it’s a shame that they have two of the biggest states locked in, shame PA does not not wake the hell up and turn GOP
It is beginning to look like PA might just be the dam breaker. If it goes Red, Obama is done by 10 pm EST.
They are simply trying to hold back a tsunami with a sippy cup. They are merely attempting to make Obama’s loss less embarrassing than Carter’s and Mondale’s.
That they are trying to hold on to states that they normally get on their side speaks volumes......Iowa? come on, this is gonna get really funny on November 6th..........
Is PA really in reach?
How does Jax look?.....
To be honest with you, I never envisioned an election where Romney wins Virginia but loses Iowa. I would have considered Virginia the tougher battle simply because there are so many Federal workers there who keep the economy on solid footing.
Sure, I think Romney should sweep all kinds of states, but Ohio still is looking like the big enchilada.
Obama has no business winning Ohio. The state economy has been in shambles over the last four years. I was out there on a business trip earlier this year and saw some things that I have never seen before outside of urban sh!t-holes like Detroit, Gary, East St. Louis, etc. I’m talking about highway interchanges between cities, where 1-2 fast food joints and 1-2 gas stations are all closed up. I couldn’t believe it ... those are the kinds of places that never seem to disappear in semi-rural and rural areas along interstate highways.
Drop the Democrat polling firm PPP out of the average and the trend is our friend in PA. With three weeks to go and NJ turning from Like Obama to Leans Obama, PA is not out of reach.
I am seeing very few of the 2x1 Romney signs that people would typically put in their yards. I still think Iowa will go Romney, but it is going to be close.
The economy locally is pretty good. Farmers are making the big bucks because farm commodity prices are so high. And that trickles down (yeah, that really works) to the rest of us.
Ohio = Republican Voter Registrations have significantly outpaced Dem’s this year.
NH = Obama is so desperate he’s back there campaigning for their 4 Electoral votes....
Iowa = Strong trend Romney’s direction!
Nevada = Frank Luntz had a group largely made up of former Obama supporters and 70% of them are now inclined to vote for Romney.
I also can’t imagine a scenario where Romney wins NH but loses Ohio. That seems @ss-backwards to me, but I guess Romney’s New England background plays well among the semi-conservative folks of the Granite State.
If NH-NC-VA-FLA-OH are red, Iowa will be the cherry on top. If PA is red, we don’t need OH
Coal country to the immediate north and especially to the east of Pittsburgh is FURIOUS -- I've seen many "Fire 0bama" signs on the US 22 and PA Turnpike corridors. This includes the areas that were Murtha's stomping grounds around Johnstown. This should take some of the usual support that might otherwise have come from the blue dog Dems around Pittsburgh.
I'll let some of the Eastern PA FReepers verify this, but other posters have been saying that the counties surrounding Philadelphia, which have shifted heavily Dem in the last 20 years, seem also to be less supportive of 0bama than they have been of other Dems lately.
The degree of Philly vote fraud is always a question... I think they're going to have to work overtime this year if they want to manufacture this one.
Also, Casey is up this year... hopefully Romney will have some coattails and help deliver a victory for Smith.
Farmers have become some of the biggest recipients of government largess. Corn farmers look at things like the ethanol mandate as key to their survival, while many Federal workers could make it in the private sector — and many use Federal jobs as a stepping stone to higher-paid private sector jobs.
That, and there’s something in the water near the Mississippi river. The western part of Wisconsin, most of Minnesota and Iowa are just full of liberals who are resistant to reality.
As for yard signs , well I have not seen one and most of the stickers I see which are rare are by blacks driving\\My county St Johns, well that goes nearly 70% republican anyway and we outnumber Dems and nonparty combined
Flagler county went to oabma last time due to all the yankee liberals moving there years ago.
I see about 3 to one for Romney and still no obama yard signs.
Clay and Putnam county just like JAX
I'm on I-95 every day and still Romney out numbers obama stickers with FL plates.
It's looking good here but lets nor forget the voter fraud though we have Scott as our GOV now and not Crist
This election has always been about Ohio. The Buckeye state holds the key to the 2012 election. Be on the lookout for cars parked near election locations for a few days, positioned with mysterious boxes filled with ballots. I expect a few “ooops, look what we found, a few thousand ballots. Even though this district is already at 102%, we should make sure that these get counted too”
if we take NH, FL, VA, NC then the midwest will see those results while they are still open and maybe help us to get out our votes and keep them at home.
I still find it hard to see why OH and IO would go Dem but then they have a big union in one state and farmers milking the money from the feds
Any new polling or evidence for this?
The Rs, I'm told, only need to make up 60,000 votes, or basically flip 30,000 or have a bunch of Ds stay home. Ham and Warren alone will probably turn out close to that 60,000.
Driving around the Dayton/Montgomery County (OH) area, it’s 3:1 Romney, but further south, it gets to be 10 or 12:1. The only Obama signs I see are in ritzy old-money Oakwood, white liberal guilt territory. Even there, it’s 50/50.
Iowa is where this nightmare started - it would only be fitting that that is where it ends as well.
You would have to cut off everything that touches Route 87 from Manhattan to Albany in order to unshackle the rest of us.
I live just to the east of Pittsburgh. An area that leans Democrat. I have a Democratic house member Jason Altmire. He is gone now because of redistricting. I drive around Pittsburgh and I see 20 Romney signs for every one Obama sign. I have talked to total strangers and we feel each other out by discussing the economy. Once that is complete, we confide in each other that we want Romney to win. This has happened over and over again. I have not met one stranger or someone I knew that wants Obama to win. I think Romney wins PA on the way to a landslide victory. I have fireworks ready. If Romney wins or Romney wins PA before 10 pm, I will set them off in my yard. I new Independence day. I have a retired school teacher that told me her and her husband and her family in Fl changed from Democrats to Republicans this year to vote for Mitt in the Primaries. A SCHOOL TEACHER! The people get it. We are seeing as many Fire Obama save coal signs as Romney signs. I count them as Romney signs.
Did you see this? LOL
look at the electoral numbers. If Obambi loses OH and NH ... it seems impossible for him.
So NH becomes Romney’s firewall. Take OH and NH and he’s got it, even without NV CO IA WI. NH could be this year’s deciding state, assuming a 50/50 election.
Your right. As of now it all hangs on OH. Like to see a trend in the polling data.
I find it very difficult to believe that Romney will win nationally and not it Ohio. It will defy history.
If Romney wins the popular vote nationally by more than 2 percent, he should win Ohio.
Obamam crowd was 2000 today in Iowa according to Iowa Gazette newspaper:)
Winning campaigns never speak of firewalls. Instead, they seek to expand the playing field.
Obama’s minions writing off Florida and Virginia speak volumes. Obama is losing.
Looking at the Cuyahoga numbers so far, about 47,000 Democrats have returned absentee ballots out of 123,000 issued to Democrats (approx. 38%). Republicans have returned 16,700 out of approximately 49,000 issued to Rs (approx. 34%). So right now the D’s are slightly ahead in Cuyahoga County.
Keep in mind that according to the George Mason website, in 2008, about 265,000 were early votes. As of today, a total of 240,000 absentee ballots have been issued. Presumably, a percentage of those absentee ballots are never returned (I don’t know how much).
Basically, the Ds are going to have to make up some ground in Cuyahoga County to keep pace statewide.
Romney is going to take Ohio. I don’t think its even going to be close. Ohio has had enough of the liar-in-chief.
I’m on business in the area, right now in Springboro. My business involves significant travel and I agree all I’m seeing are Romney/Ryan signs.
I still think R/R need Ohio... that one won’t get called until the wee hours of the morning after. Things to look for are the margins in FL, NH (if R/R win), and NC. VA will be a very late call. I think CO and NV are also key here. PA is fool’s gold - big time trap - so glad R/R aren’t spending money there. If PA goes R/R it will be part of a larger tidal wave.
sorry WS sB WI
But I thought McRomney was McLame II, just happy to be the nominee, not trying to win?
Out in the West San Fernando Valley, I see three or four Obama bumper stickers every day, maybe one or two Romney...
I grew up in Iowa, but moved away in 2001. Lived there 38 years. Iowa tends to flip back and forth between Rep & Dem in Pres cycles. 0zer0 carried it big in 2008. In fact, Iowa gave 0zer0 his start by winning the first caucus big. I think Iowa is anxious to undo its mistake. I predict Iowa flips to Romney this cycle.
Also, I was on vacation in Reno a week or so ago. Surprised to see several Anti-0zer0 billboards around town. Not just little yard signs...I’m talking big full size interstate billboards. That gives me hope that Nevada may really be in play and could also flip.
I don’t know about NH. But agree with others that think maybe Romney has some coattails left from his time in MA.
Ohio is the real prize. I pray it goes to Romney, otherwise we have to run the tables just about everywhere else.
If Romney takes IA, NV, NH, but loses OH, there could be a 269-269 tie in the electorial college. That means the House votes for Pres, and if the GOP controls it.. it means Romney. Romney better have won the popular vote big, or else it will be Florida 2000 all over again... this time with several states. If Romney wins by GOP votes in the house. I shudder to think of the race riots that will happen.
“Out in the West San Fernando Valley, I see three or four Obama bumper stickers every day, maybe one or two Romney...”
There’s a reason for that disparity! The RATS key your car’s paint if you have any Republican campaign stuff on it in CA.
I would think that Killadelphia is an Obama stronghold, but I also have hope that the Pennsylvania coal miners rally together and turn the state bright red.
Saw a “Mitt” window sticker today. First Romney sticker on a car that I have seen. I have seen a few Obama stickers. (CA).
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