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Obama’s New Firewall: Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada(goodbye N Carolina, Va, Florida)
National Review ^ | October 17, 2012 5:05 P.M | By Jim Geraghty

Posted on 10/17/2012 5:46:51 PM PDT by drewh

Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama’s team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has “significant leads” in all four places.

It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling.

Chalk one up for Suffolk University Political Research Center’s David Paleologos, which said they would stop polling North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida last week.

Fascinatingly, the description of Plouffe’s comments puts New Hampshire in the “firewall” pile, when the last three polls have Romney up by 4 (ARG) a tie (Suffolk) and Obama ahead by 1 (Rasmussen).

(Excerpt) Read more at ...

TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Florida; US: Iowa; US: Nevada; US: New Hampshire; US: North Carolina; US: Ohio; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: davidplouffe; firewall; iowa; nevada; new; newhampshire; obama; obamas; ohio; plouffe
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To: drewh
a few weeks ago it was hard to see a way to 270 without ohio, now it just looks like icing on the cake. i think nc is already in the bag
41 posted on 10/17/2012 7:57:36 PM PDT by paul51 (11 September 2001 - Never forget)
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To: paul51

I still think R/R need Ohio... that one won’t get called until the wee hours of the morning after. Things to look for are the margins in FL, NH (if R/R win), and NC. VA will be a very late call. I think CO and NV are also key here. PA is fool’s gold - big time trap - so glad R/R aren’t spending money there. If PA goes R/R it will be part of a larger tidal wave.

42 posted on 10/17/2012 8:10:25 PM PDT by Tuxedo (Drink Tea - not Kool-Aid.)
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To: Tuxedo
they can win without ohio. VA, NC,FL,CO, NH, and WS is one way
43 posted on 10/17/2012 9:05:06 PM PDT by paul51 (11 September 2001 - Never forget)
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To: paul51

sorry WS sB WI

44 posted on 10/17/2012 9:06:05 PM PDT by paul51 (11 September 2001 - Never forget)
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To: Red Badger

But I thought McRomney was McLame II, just happy to be the nominee, not trying to win?

45 posted on 10/17/2012 9:13:59 PM PDT by karnage
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To: LS

Out in the West San Fernando Valley, I see three or four Obama bumper stickers every day, maybe one or two Romney...

46 posted on 10/17/2012 9:17:24 PM PDT by karnage
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To: drewh

I grew up in Iowa, but moved away in 2001. Lived there 38 years. Iowa tends to flip back and forth between Rep & Dem in Pres cycles. 0zer0 carried it big in 2008. In fact, Iowa gave 0zer0 his start by winning the first caucus big. I think Iowa is anxious to undo its mistake. I predict Iowa flips to Romney this cycle.
Also, I was on vacation in Reno a week or so ago. Surprised to see several Anti-0zer0 billboards around town. Not just little yard signs...I’m talking big full size interstate billboards. That gives me hope that Nevada may really be in play and could also flip.
I don’t know about NH. But agree with others that think maybe Romney has some coattails left from his time in MA.
Ohio is the real prize. I pray it goes to Romney, otherwise we have to run the tables just about everywhere else.
If Romney takes IA, NV, NH, but loses OH, there could be a 269-269 tie in the electorial college. That means the House votes for Pres, and if the GOP controls it.. it means Romney. Romney better have won the popular vote big, or else it will be Florida 2000 all over again... this time with several states. If Romney wins by GOP votes in the house. I shudder to think of the race riots that will happen.

47 posted on 10/17/2012 9:59:06 PM PDT by SDShack (0zer0care = "The Final Solution" - Socialized Euthanasia Healthcare)
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To: karnage

“Out in the West San Fernando Valley, I see three or four Obama bumper stickers every day, maybe one or two Romney...”

There’s a reason for that disparity! The RATS key your car’s paint if you have any Republican campaign stuff on it in CA.

48 posted on 10/17/2012 10:23:47 PM PDT by vette6387
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To: rdl6989

I would think that Killadelphia is an Obama stronghold, but I also have hope that the Pennsylvania coal miners rally together and turn the state bright red.

49 posted on 10/17/2012 10:35:26 PM PDT by Prole (Please pray for the families of Chris and Channon. May God always watch over them)
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To: vette6387

Saw a “Mitt” window sticker today. First Romney sticker on a car that I have seen. I have seen a few Obama stickers. (CA).

50 posted on 10/17/2012 11:14:31 PM PDT by married21 (As for me and my house, we will serve the Lord.)
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To: Lou Budvis

Want to feel better about OH?

Ohio was more like +5 D in 2008 instead of +8 D. So any polls weighted to more than +5 D are wrong. I think it’s going to be more like +1 D with a whole lot of crossovers for Romney.

51 posted on 10/17/2012 11:58:26 PM PDT by UltraV (I use the term Leftist not liberal, because a true liberal would not support government censorship.)
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To: drewh

I always thought the states of the Old Confederacy would go to Mitt. Nevada is a strange state—my bet—it will go for Mitt as well.

52 posted on 10/18/2012 12:26:02 AM PDT by Forward the Light Brigade (Into the Jaws of H*ll)
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To: drewh

An Ad if I were Mitt Romney and the Only Ad I would Show in Every Swing state until Election day Is one showing Obama at a Town Hall Meeting when he ran in 2008,Obama States the George W Bush Took out a Credit Card from the Bank Of China In the Name of your Children and Grand Children and Increased the Nations Debt in 8 years by 4.9 trillion dollars,It Is Irresponsible and Unpatriotic.
Well after 4 years, Obama has increased that Debt by 6 trillion dollars,4 more years and it will be 22 trillion,if we are still here

53 posted on 10/18/2012 4:55:28 AM PDT by ballplayer
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To: drewh
Very interesting.

After the first debate, Romney actually returned to Iowa. Obama isn't doing as well here as he once was, and I have seen places where the signs switched.

54 posted on 10/18/2012 5:13:42 AM PDT by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: drewh
I see no reason why Romney won't carry Iowa. Granted, I live in western Iowa which is Republican territory but still, I was in DM yesterday--tons of Romney signs, no Obama signs.

The last polling I knew of had Iowa in a dead heat.

55 posted on 10/18/2012 5:41:06 AM PDT by Conservativegreatgrandma
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To: manc

It’s about the same here, 3-1 R-R yard signs vs O-B. In 2008 it was the other way around. But this is Okaloosa County, home of Eglin AFB, so we are quite conservative area, as is Santa Rosa County. Walton County to the east is about half Dem, but rural not metro, and so is Escambia/Pensacola county.
Haven’t seen a lot of O-B support in either of those counties like in 2008 when that’s all you could see was O’bummer stickers and yard signs everywhere.......But you have to remember Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Orange Counties are very heavy Dem/liberal.........

56 posted on 10/18/2012 6:14:02 AM PDT by Red Badger (Is it just me, or is Hillary! starting to look like Benjamin Franklin?.................)
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Comment #57 Removed by Moderator

To: drewh
If ANY swing state goes for ObaMao, that will say all I care to know about this formerly-great nation:

We're ****ing DOOMED. It's just a matter of time. One or two generations, tops. Count on it.

58 posted on 10/18/2012 2:38:07 PM PDT by newgeezer (It is [the people's] right and duty to be at all times armed. --Thomas Jefferson)
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Drop the Democrat polling firm PPP out of the average and the trend is our friend in PA. With three weeks to go and NJ turning from Like Obama to Leans Obama, PA is not out of reach.

59 posted on 10/18/2012 6:23:41 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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