The Rs, I'm told, only need to make up 60,000 votes, or basically flip 30,000 or have a bunch of Ds stay home. Ham and Warren alone will probably turn out close to that 60,000.
Looking at the Cuyahoga numbers so far, about 47,000 Democrats have returned absentee ballots out of 123,000 issued to Democrats (approx. 38%). Republicans have returned 16,700 out of approximately 49,000 issued to Rs (approx. 34%). So right now the D’s are slightly ahead in Cuyahoga County.
Keep in mind that according to the George Mason website, in 2008, about 265,000 were early votes. As of today, a total of 240,000 absentee ballots have been issued. Presumably, a percentage of those absentee ballots are never returned (I don’t know how much).
Basically, the Ds are going to have to make up some ground in Cuyahoga County to keep pace statewide.