Skip to comments.Obama only at 44% in auto-bailout Michigan? (By a Democrat-linked pollster, no less)
Posted on 10/18/2012 8:53:13 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Usually, an incumbent who can't get to 50% in pre-election polling is in trouble. An incumbent who can't get to 45% is almost certain to lose, especially with less than three weeks to go, as undecideds are already disinclined to support the candidate they know best. What does it mean when a poll from a firm linked to Democrats in a key Democratic state can't produce anything better than 44% for a Democratic incumbent and a virtual tie with a Republican challenger?
Released Wednesday, the poll of 600 likely voters showed Obama leading Romney in Michigan, 44.2 percent to 40.5 percent, but Romney also within the sampling error of 4 percentage points meaning its a tight race. ...
The research also revealed a significant swelling of support among Republicans for Romney. In the latest survey, 44 percent of Republicans said they were very excited to vote for the Michigan native, compared to 16 percent in the June survey, before Romney was formally nominated by his party.
By contrast, 48 percent of Democrats reported being very excited to vote for Obama, up from 39 percent in June.
Who conducted the poll? That's also an interesting story, emphasis mine:
The poll was conducted by the Michigan polling firm Denno Research and commissioned by Grand Rapids-based Lambert, Edwards & Associates, which also has offices in Lansing. Dennis Denno, president of Denno Research, also is chief of staff to state Sen. Virgil Smith Jr., D-Detroit.
In other words, this isn’t exactly an independent firm.
The gap in this case is about in line with previous polling in Michigan, where Obama has a 4.4-point lead in the Real Clear Politics average. However, it’s the lowest level of committed support for Obama in the past three weeks. Prior to that, Obama had a double-digit lead in RCP’s Michigan average for a good part of September. This could therefore be an outlier — but if so, then the Democrat for whom the pollster works should find himself another chief of staff.
There is another telling point in the data. Romney leads among independents by six points at 36/30, although a third remain undecided. Undecideds usually break sharply away from the incumbent in the final weeks of an election, especially when the incumbent isn’t providing any real case for a second term in the midst of economic stagnation. In 2008, Obama won Michigan by 16 points, 57/41, and won independents by ten, 52/42. If Republicans pick up most of the independents still undecided and reduce the 12-point turnout advantage Democrats had in 2008, Romney could win this state — and that would all but close out Obama’s hopes for a second term.
So where will he be after the forthcoming Gloria Allred/Purloined Tax Forms slime attack on Romney?
Most people won’t buy it, I don’t think.
Could be they’ve figured out...
Government moving towards leftism =
Ever higher regulations and taxes =
Business in retreat =
Fewer jobs all over America =
Broke Consumers =
Lower Auto Sales =
Layoffs at Auto Companies
If this is happening and government props up auto companies with borrowed dollars, it’s only prolonging the inevitable.
Perhaps they’ve figured this out.
Obama has given billions to Government Motors, but he has also managed to kill it as a going concern. The money went to the union stooges, not to cleaning up the company or making it more successful. So, apart from Ford, the Detroit auto industry is dying faster than ever.
And don’t let’s get started on the Chevy Volt.
I suspect that people have started to notice all that. More money spent; fewer jobs. It’s the story of everything Obama touches.
Ping for the MI list.
I'm sure "Candy of CNN" has proof GM is doing just great and that Detroit is the second best city to live in - after Chicago...
I see very few romney signs out..
but, i see ZERO signs for fubo....
Good the good people of Michigan also tow Stabenow to the junkyard. Now THAT would be awesome.
I wonder how much of that 6 Billion that GM has lost since the bailout went to unions and Obama’s 2012 Campaign ?
I wouldn’t put a Romney yard sign out or a bumper sticker on my car if I still lived in MI..Way too many Union and/or black thugs to mess with your property when you’re not looking.
I have lived in both cities. Chicago is a great place to live; Detroit is a shite hole.
If you are in certain places in Michigan, having a
Romney yard sign would be like painting a target on your back.
I don’t even know the name of the democrat challenging for my district’s house seat in Michigan. He appears to be a place holder with no chance of winning.
Looks to me like the democrats are mostly trying to hold the seats they have without challenging for new ones.
I lived in Chicago too... I loved living there. But that doesn’t mean Chicago isn’t one of the most corrupt violent cities in the United States - and getting worse every day...
I’d choose to walk in a Detroit blackout before traveling many Chicago neighborhoods during the day. Detroit has concealed and open carry.
It is fitting that the Jimmy Carter Legacy is nailed to the kenyan in Benghazi with an attack on our diplomatic staff there. It is not far geographically from Iran and very close ideologically.
Around here, at least in my to work and shopping orbit, Romney has half the signs that Mccain had but the kenyan has one sign. Three months ago in the same area there were half a dozen kenyan yard signs and a dozen or so Romneys. he Romney yardsignage has increased by a multibple, though still al ot less than McC but the kenyan has almost disappeared. Hereabouts trashing of signs or stealing them is extremely rare. Interesting is the total lack of the 0 in front of any of the black inhabited dwellings on my route.
If I’m the ROMNEY CAMPAIGN I hold a massive event right in the HEART of DETROIT...... I ask the people look around you at the failed policies of the left and do you want 4 more years of what Obama has done for your city..... Show the rest of America what liberalism gone wild creates....
Actually, it is not getting more violent or corrupt. I arrived here 50 yrs ago and the murder rate was a lot higher than now. And most of the crime is limited to certain areas. My neighborhood is probably safer than yours. I don’t worry about leaving my door unlocked.
If you look at the history of the city you will find that the corruption after the Great Fire was FAR worse than now. Then the city government was controlled by gamblers, saloon keepers and brothel owners (in fact, politics started in the bars).
The biggest gambler in the area was head of the Cook County Democrat Party, Mike McDonough. Crime was so rampant that judges would admonish victims for going INTO certain areas. There were whole areas given over to prostitutes and whore houses.
Politicians were interfering to get the crooks associated with their political organizations out of jail. At one point people on the North side actually hired private police forces to protect the residents from roving gangs of thieves. Mickey Finn was drugging and robbing men from his bar. They would wake up in the alley nude, broke and addled after being robbed.
You might like the book, “Gangs of Chicago” (Gem of the Prairie) by Herbert Ashbury. Hilarious and tragic all at the same time.
It is amazing that it is as great a city as it is considering all the crap that has gone down here.
Obama’s running the most peculiar reelection campaign I’ve seen. In contrast to Clinton or Reagan he’s not running on first term successes he can build on. He’s running as the alternative to Romney, as if he’s the challenger.
Joe......Romney signs are hard to come across here in the west side of the state. The national campaign has not poured lots of money into yard signs and I have been stealing them with the help from other county chairs and robbing peter to pay paul at other Republican headquarters. I am in Ottawa County. I was in Kalamazoo last week and while cruising through the north end of kzoo I found maybe two signs. Last election cycle, it was a fortress of obama signs......it made me sick. Also, I drive a lot for work and am in the Grand Rapids downtown (obama stronghold area) and there are very very few signs for him. One would think the dem party has placed more money into getting rid of Justin Amash than trying to get Obama reelected. I believe we will TAKE MICHIGAN BACK AND TURN IT RED IN NOVEMBER!!!!
I helped put together Romney/Ryan signs a couple of weeks ago. My understanding is that they were very late in arriving to Michigan...I was asking repeatedly where the heck they were (”patience, grasshopper”). Also, number of available Romney/Ryan signs is waaaayyy down from McCain/Palin; they just didn’t print as many for whatever reason. At the Victory Center, they allow one sign per address.