Skip to comments.The Possibility of a Popular, Electoral Vote Split is Very Real
Posted on 10/18/2012 8:46:11 PM PDT by Arthurio
Partisans still hoping that their candidate will build a clear lead in the presidential contest are likely to be disappointed. The race seems destined to be a close one, with the outcome remaining in doubt to the very end. President Obama won the second debate, but not by nearly enough to make up for his devastating loss in the first one. Obama was on the verge of putting the race away heading into the first debate, but his weak performance and Mitt Romneys commanding effort effectively changed the races trajectory. Although Obamas poll numbers are no longer dropping, he is locked in a tight contest: He trails Romney by 1 to 4 percentage points in national polling, yet he still holds a fragile lead in the Electoral College.
Romney entered the first debate with an edge arguably in only one battleground state: North Carolina. Going into the second debate, the former Massachusetts governor also led narrowly in Florida and Virginia, putting him ahead in three of 11 battleground states. Obama now holds small leads in Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin, with a slightly wider advantage in Nevada. He still leads, in my judgment, in Ohio by about 4 points (although going into the second debate, one senior Romney strategist claimed that the two men were essentially tied at 47 percent in the Buckeye State). Romney is polling far back in Michigan and Pennsylvania, states that are effectively noncompetitive.
Although history and this column have argued that the popular vote and the electoral vote usually go in the same direction (thats what happened in 53 of 56 presidential elections), today, Romneys national popular-vote situation is different than his Electoral College challenge.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationaljournal.com ...
Charlie Cook’s info is dated - every one agrees FL, NC, VA, CO are now solid Romney states.
He’ll probably win OH, WI and IA as well.
Its not going to be close at all.
Sorry, Charlie - you’re dead wrong!
Not really. It’s going to be a landslide. Romney is already ahead of where Reagan was in 1980. Mitt would have to praise Hitler to lose this at this point.
President Obama won the second debate
No, he didn’t. Next...
The article was written on October 11th. It is crap.
Charlie Cook wrote this article to try to convince himself as much as anyone else that his Obamessiah still has hope. Fail.
I also thought the article was dated but check again. It was written this afternoon. He must have been locked in a closet all day, away from current events, as his statement that Obama “still holds a fragile lead in the Electoral College” has long since gone!
Never underestimate the ability of the Republican party to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
From your keyboard to God’s ears!
There’s a poll out tonight showing Romney up 4 in Pennsylvania.
“Not really. Its going to be a landslide.”
I believe that’s correct; Michigan and PA are coming too.
It was updated but still stale.
Does everyone agree we are beyond the range of ‘rat voter fraud yet?!?
The only way there won’t be riots and upheaval in this country is if Obama loses resoundingly.
If not, the only people to get any pleasure out of an election aftermath will be the lawyers.
Every election they say this.. But it never happens.
Nope, Romney by a landslide..
According to the latest poll, Obama has the overall lead in Maine, 48-44; but in the 2nd District, Romney has a 49-44 lead.
I don’t get the landslide talk. There is nothing that Obama can do that will prevent him from winning at least 200 EVs.
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