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The Possibility of a Popular, Electoral Vote Split is Very Real
National Journal ^ | Charlie Cook

Posted on 10/18/2012 8:46:11 PM PDT by Arthurio

Partisans still hoping that their candidate will build a clear lead in the presidential contest are likely to be disappointed. The race seems destined to be a close one, with the outcome remaining in doubt to the very end. President Obama won the second debate, but not by nearly enough to make up for his devastating loss in the first one. Obama was on the verge of putting the race away heading into the first debate, but his weak performance and Mitt Romney’s commanding effort effectively changed the race’s trajectory. Although Obama’s poll numbers are no longer dropping, he is locked in a tight contest: He trails Romney by 1 to 4 percentage points in national polling, yet he still holds a fragile lead in the Electoral College.

Romney entered the first debate with an edge arguably in only one battleground state: North Carolina. Going into the second debate, the former Massachusetts governor also led narrowly in Florida and Virginia, putting him ahead in three of 11 battleground states. Obama now holds small leads in Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin, with a slightly wider advantage in Nevada. He still leads, in my judgment, in Ohio by about 4 points (although going into the second debate, one senior Romney strategist claimed that the two men were essentially tied at 47 percent in the Buckeye State). Romney is polling far back in Michigan and Pennsylvania, states that are effectively noncompetitive.

Although history and this column have argued that the popular vote and the electoral vote usually go in the same direction (that’s what happened in 53 of 56 presidential elections), today, Romney’s national popular-vote situation is different than his Electoral College challenge.

(Excerpt) Read more at nationaljournal.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: election2012; obama; romney

1 posted on 10/18/2012 8:46:13 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

Charlie Cook’s info is dated - every one agrees FL, NC, VA, CO are now solid Romney states.

He’ll probably win OH, WI and IA as well.

Its not going to be close at all.

Sorry, Charlie - you’re dead wrong!


2 posted on 10/18/2012 8:49:58 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Arthurio

Not really. It’s going to be a landslide. Romney is already ahead of where Reagan was in 1980. Mitt would have to praise Hitler to lose this at this point.


3 posted on 10/18/2012 8:50:18 PM PDT by TheRhinelander
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To: Arthurio

President Obama won the second debate


No, he didn’t. Next...


4 posted on 10/18/2012 8:51:05 PM PDT by NewJerseyGOP
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To: Arthurio

The article was written on October 11th. It is crap.


5 posted on 10/18/2012 8:52:22 PM PDT by kabar
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To: Arthurio

Charlie Cook wrote this article to try to convince himself as much as anyone else that his Obamessiah still has hope. Fail.


6 posted on 10/18/2012 8:56:20 PM PDT by kevao (Is your ocean any lower than it was four years ago?)
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To: kabar

I also thought the article was dated but check again. It was written this afternoon. He must have been locked in a closet all day, away from current events, as his statement that Obama “still holds a fragile lead in the Electoral College” has long since gone!


7 posted on 10/18/2012 8:58:24 PM PDT by StarFan
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To: TheRhinelander
Not really. It’s going to be a landslide. Romney is already ahead of where Reagan was in 1980. Mitt would have to praise Hitler to lose this at this point.

Never underestimate the ability of the Republican party to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

8 posted on 10/18/2012 9:08:44 PM PDT by OneWingedShark (Q: Why am I here? A: To do Justly, to love mercy, and to walk humbly with my God.)
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To: goldstategop

From your keyboard to God’s ears!


9 posted on 10/18/2012 9:09:32 PM PDT by TheBattman (Isn't the lesser evil... still evil?)
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To: goldstategop

There’s a poll out tonight showing Romney up 4 in Pennsylvania.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=b4_cJc-WYhI


10 posted on 10/18/2012 9:12:04 PM PDT by rdl6989 (January 20, 2013 The end of an error.)
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To: TheRhinelander

“Not really. It’s going to be a landslide.”

I concur.


11 posted on 10/18/2012 9:16:10 PM PDT by Bshaw (A nefarious deceit is upon us all!)
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To: goldstategop

I believe that’s correct; Michigan and PA are coming too.


12 posted on 10/18/2012 9:18:14 PM PDT by One Name (Ultimately, the TRUTH is a razor's edge and no man can sit astride it.)
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To: StarFan

It was updated but still stale.


13 posted on 10/18/2012 9:21:37 PM PDT by kabar
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To: Bshaw

Does everyone agree we are beyond the range of ‘rat voter fraud yet?!?


14 posted on 10/18/2012 9:23:29 PM PDT by Dr. Pritchett
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To: Dr. Pritchett

The only way there won’t be riots and upheaval in this country is if Obama loses resoundingly.

If not, the only people to get any pleasure out of an election aftermath will be the lawyers.


15 posted on 10/18/2012 9:27:04 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Arthurio

Every election they say this.. But it never happens.


16 posted on 10/18/2012 9:29:32 PM PDT by Hildy (F"When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser." - Socrates)
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To: goldstategop

17 posted on 10/18/2012 9:31:07 PM PDT by GeorgeWashingtonsGhost
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To: Arthurio

Nope, Romney by a landslide..


18 posted on 10/18/2012 9:33:30 PM PDT by cardinal4
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To: goldstategop
I read the other day that Romney might swipe an EV in Maine's 2nd District. Maine's election laws allow for split results, kind of like Nebraska in 2008 and Virginia in 1972.

According to the latest poll, Obama has the overall lead in Maine, 48-44; but in the 2nd District, Romney has a 49-44 lead.

19 posted on 10/18/2012 9:35:02 PM PDT by Stonewall Jackson ("I must study politics and war that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy.")
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To: cardinal4

I don’t get the landslide talk. There is nothing that Obama can do that will prevent him from winning at least 200 EVs.


20 posted on 10/18/2012 9:59:00 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: CatOwner

Obama is guaranteed to win a minimum of 180 to 200 electoral votes.

That he can do that with the lousy economy we have says much about how many Americans still are under his spell.

I don’t know what hold he has over them. Any other guy would lose big!


21 posted on 10/18/2012 10:04:25 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Arthurio
The race seems destined to be a close one

a good political outcome predictor you are not

22 posted on 10/18/2012 10:30:00 PM PDT by paul51 (11 September 2001 - Never forget)
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To: OneWingedShark

Please don’t be an eeyore...

Everyone needs to calmly proceed confident in the outcome - go out and vote, make sure your friends do to - and this will be an epic repudiation of Zero and his attempt to dump our republic into the trash bin of fascism.

This is going to be an epic landslide. Lefty talkers heads will start to explode by 10pm on election night as the scope becomes clear...


23 posted on 10/18/2012 10:32:03 PM PDT by monkeypants (It's a Republic, if you can keep it.)
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To: CatOwner
many, including me, consider 338 - 200 a wipeout
24 posted on 10/18/2012 10:33:06 PM PDT by paul51 (11 September 2001 - Never forget)
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To: CatOwner
many, including me, consider 338 - 200 a wipeout
25 posted on 10/18/2012 10:34:18 PM PDT by paul51 (11 September 2001 - Never forget)
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To: goldstategop

Maybe not. Here is a highly likely outcome in my optinion...

See who I think wins the 2012 election on RealCearPolitics.com http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_create_your_own_electoral_college_map.html?map=HI_1,AK_5,FL_5,NH_7,MI_7,VT_1,ME_7,RI_1,NY_1,PA_7,NJ_4,DE_1,MD_1,VA_5,WV_5,OH_6,IN_6,IL_3,CT_2,WI_7,NC_5,DC_1,MA_1,TN_5,AR_5,MO_5,GA_5,SC_5,KY_5,AL_5,LA_5,MS_5,IA_5,MN_7,OK_5,TX_6,NM_7,KS_5,NE_5,SD_6,ND_6,WY_5,MT_6,CO_6,ID_5,UT_5,AZ_6,NV_6,OR_7,WA_2,CA_1


26 posted on 10/18/2012 10:42:25 PM PDT by monkeypants (It's a Republic, if you can keep it.)
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To: Arthurio

Charlie’s drinking again....


27 posted on 10/18/2012 10:48:23 PM PDT by Nifster
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To: CatOwner

What’s not to get? I believe the “safe” Hussein states aren’t even safe. PA for example. And before you get to voter fraud, look at the reaction to UE going down to 7.8%; nothing but head shaking disbelief. Wait until they try a Franken type game..
Just my opinion..


28 posted on 10/18/2012 10:48:52 PM PDT by cardinal4
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To: goldstategop

Read the comments from libs who write to the paper and you will see they still blame Bush and the “mess he inherited, when he took office the economy was shedding jobs, blah, blah blah,

Funny thing is that business people knew he was a Communist Socialist and started laying off people right and left because they were scared to death of Obama. That is the truth and it was a sever crisis of confidence.

Things appear more optimistic to some because businesses see the end to this Socialist nightmare of a regime.


29 posted on 10/18/2012 10:50:20 PM PDT by lone star annie
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To: goldstategop

Read the comments from libs who write to the paper and you will see they still blame Bush and the “mess he inherited, when he took office the economy was shedding jobs, blah, blah blah,

Funny thing is that business people knew he was a Communist Socialist and started laying off people right and left because they were scared to death of Obama. That is the truth and it was a severe crisis of confidence.

Things appear more optimistic to some because businesses see the end to this Socialist nightmare of a regime.


30 posted on 10/18/2012 10:51:01 PM PDT by lone star annie
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To: monkeypants
Please don’t be an eeyore...

I'm not; it's just that... well, the party's at the point where in trying to appeal to everyone they appeal to no-one, they are so 'big-tent' that they stand for nothing, the only thing they've got going for their guy is "he's not the other guy."

Everyone needs to calmly proceed confident in the outcome - go out and vote, make sure your friends do to - and this will be an epic repudiation of Zero and his attempt to dump our republic into the trash bin of fascism.

You must not be familiar with me; I'm not voting for Romney. Period.
He's a socialist and a statist (I've never heard him say "that's not government's job" on anything), neither of which will I vote for. I'll vote for Goode (Constitution), Johnson (Libertarian) or Hoefling (America's Party) depending on who's on the ballot when it comes around -- if the Republican party wanted my vote they wouldn't have pushed Romney on everyone.

This is going to be an epic landslide. Lefty talkers heads will start to explode by 10pm on election night as the scope becomes clear...

I don't care if it is or not; as far as I'm concerned the Democrat/Republican choice this time around is a Morton's fork: on one hand there's Obama who's a Marxist-socialist, on the other Romney who's a Fabian-socialist, electing either means I can expect implementation of socialistic policies.

31 posted on 10/18/2012 11:04:19 PM PDT by OneWingedShark (Q: Why am I here? A: To do Justly, to love mercy, and to walk humbly with my God.)
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To: lone star annie
Things appear more optimistic to some because businesses see the end to this Socialist nightmare of a regime.

Too bad they don't realize Romney's a socialist.

32 posted on 10/18/2012 11:07:15 PM PDT by OneWingedShark (Q: Why am I here? A: To do Justly, to love mercy, and to walk humbly with my God.)
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To: Stonewall Jackson

Yep - in Maine we will be donating at least 1 for the cause.


33 posted on 10/19/2012 1:44:22 AM PDT by HannibalHamlinJr
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To: Arthurio
I don't know why people find a popular/electoral split disturbing. In the 1997 World Series, Cleveland won games two, four, and six by 5, 7, and 3 points respectively. Florida won games one, three, five, and seven by 3, 3, 1, and 1 points respectively. Florida appropriately won the Series because they won more games than Cleveland, even though Cleveland outscored Florida by 44 to 37 overall. Games and elections have rules, and no sensible person would argue with an outcome that follows the rules.

Unfortunately, liberals are neither sensible nor decent; they want the rules rewritten after the fact. I expect them to riot if they win the popular vote but lose the election (they'll riot no matter what, but that excuse will be like the trashy movie in Libya, their justification for the violence that thugs initiate simply because they are thugs). Conversely, if they lose the popular vote but win the election, the split outcome will not concern them at all - hypocrites. Personally, I find the popular vote an interesting footnote to history, but I do not want that statistic considered at all in deciding the election.

34 posted on 10/19/2012 2:48:15 AM PDT by Pollster1 (Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. - Ronald Reagan)
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To: Arthurio

Charlie stop smoking that stuff! You are making a fool of yourself.


35 posted on 10/19/2012 2:56:28 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: OneWingedShark

Yawn....


36 posted on 10/19/2012 3:54:03 AM PDT by Codeflier (Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama - 4 democrat presidents in a row and counting...)
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To: goldstategop

Cook is smoking some good s#%t!


37 posted on 10/19/2012 4:08:01 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Arthurio

More and more evidence that the looney left is giving up on winning the popular vote. An EV rabbit out of the hat trick is about all they have left.


38 posted on 10/19/2012 4:31:30 AM PDT by catfish1957 (My dream for hope and change is to see the punk POTUS in prison for treason)
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To: Arthurio
All these stories, ie New Hampshire important, tight race, and this one are all trying to re-inflate the popped balloon. The preference cascade is just starting to roll. The wave is building, water's coming through the dam, bandwagon is rolling down hill, pick your metaphor, IT AIN'T GONNA BE CLOSE.

My long prediction is that Obama will be lucky to get 40%.

39 posted on 10/19/2012 4:57:27 AM PDT by Jabba the Nutt (.Are they stupid, malicious or evil?)
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