Posted on 10/18/2012 8:46:11 PM PDT by Arthurio
Partisans still hoping that their candidate will build a clear lead in the presidential contest are likely to be disappointed. The race seems destined to be a close one, with the outcome remaining in doubt to the very end. President Obama won the second debate, but not by nearly enough to make up for his devastating loss in the first one. Obama was on the verge of putting the race away heading into the first debate, but his weak performance and Mitt Romney’s commanding effort effectively changed the race’s trajectory. Although Obama’s poll numbers are no longer dropping, he is locked in a tight contest: He trails Romney by 1 to 4 percentage points in national polling, yet he still holds a fragile lead in the Electoral College.
Romney entered the first debate with an edge arguably in only one battleground state: North Carolina. Going into the second debate, the former Massachusetts governor also led narrowly in Florida and Virginia, putting him ahead in three of 11 battleground states. Obama now holds small leads in Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin, with a slightly wider advantage in Nevada. He still leads, in my judgment, in Ohio by about 4 points (although going into the second debate, one senior Romney strategist claimed that the two men were essentially tied at 47 percent in the Buckeye State). Romney is polling far back in Michigan and Pennsylvania, states that are effectively noncompetitive.
Although history and this column have argued that the popular vote and the electoral vote usually go in the same direction (that’s what happened in 53 of 56 presidential elections), today, Romney’s national popular-vote situation is different than his Electoral College challenge.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationaljournal.com ...
Obama is guaranteed to win a minimum of 180 to 200 electoral votes.
That he can do that with the lousy economy we have says much about how many Americans still are under his spell.
I don’t know what hold he has over them. Any other guy would lose big!
a good political outcome predictor you are not
Please don’t be an eeyore...
Everyone needs to calmly proceed confident in the outcome - go out and vote, make sure your friends do to - and this will be an epic repudiation of Zero and his attempt to dump our republic into the trash bin of fascism.
This is going to be an epic landslide. Lefty talkers heads will start to explode by 10pm on election night as the scope becomes clear...
Maybe not. Here is a highly likely outcome in my optinion...
See who I think wins the 2012 election on RealCearPolitics.com http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_create_your_own_electoral_college_map.html?map=HI_1,AK_5,FL_5,NH_7,MI_7,VT_1,ME_7,RI_1,NY_1,PA_7,NJ_4,DE_1,MD_1,VA_5,WV_5,OH_6,IN_6,IL_3,CT_2,WI_7,NC_5,DC_1,MA_1,TN_5,AR_5,MO_5,GA_5,SC_5,KY_5,AL_5,LA_5,MS_5,IA_5,MN_7,OK_5,TX_6,NM_7,KS_5,NE_5,SD_6,ND_6,WY_5,MT_6,CO_6,ID_5,UT_5,AZ_6,NV_6,OR_7,WA_2,CA_1
Charlie’s drinking again....
What’s not to get? I believe the “safe” Hussein states aren’t even safe. PA for example. And before you get to voter fraud, look at the reaction to UE going down to 7.8%; nothing but head shaking disbelief. Wait until they try a Franken type game..
Just my opinion..
Read the comments from libs who write to the paper and you will see they still blame Bush and the “mess he inherited, when he took office the economy was shedding jobs, blah, blah blah,
Funny thing is that business people knew he was a Communist Socialist and started laying off people right and left because they were scared to death of Obama. That is the truth and it was a sever crisis of confidence.
Things appear more optimistic to some because businesses see the end to this Socialist nightmare of a regime.
Read the comments from libs who write to the paper and you will see they still blame Bush and the “mess he inherited, when he took office the economy was shedding jobs, blah, blah blah,
Funny thing is that business people knew he was a Communist Socialist and started laying off people right and left because they were scared to death of Obama. That is the truth and it was a severe crisis of confidence.
Things appear more optimistic to some because businesses see the end to this Socialist nightmare of a regime.
I'm not; it's just that... well, the party's at the point where in trying to appeal to everyone they appeal to no-one, they are so 'big-tent' that they stand for nothing, the only thing they've got going for their guy is "he's not the other guy."
Everyone needs to calmly proceed confident in the outcome - go out and vote, make sure your friends do to - and this will be an epic repudiation of Zero and his attempt to dump our republic into the trash bin of fascism.
You must not be familiar with me; I'm not voting for Romney. Period.
He's a socialist and a statist (I've never heard him say "that's not government's job" on anything), neither of which will I vote for. I'll vote for Goode (Constitution), Johnson (Libertarian) or Hoefling (America's Party) depending on who's on the ballot when it comes around -- if the Republican party wanted my vote they wouldn't have pushed Romney on everyone.
This is going to be an epic landslide. Lefty talkers heads will start to explode by 10pm on election night as the scope becomes clear...
I don't care if it is or not; as far as I'm concerned the Democrat/Republican choice this time around is a Morton's fork: on one hand there's Obama who's a Marxist-socialist, on the other Romney who's a Fabian-socialist, electing either means I can expect implementation of socialistic policies.
Too bad they don't realize Romney's a socialist.
Yep - in Maine we will be donating at least 1 for the cause.
Unfortunately, liberals are neither sensible nor decent; they want the rules rewritten after the fact. I expect them to riot if they win the popular vote but lose the election (they'll riot no matter what, but that excuse will be like the trashy movie in Libya, their justification for the violence that thugs initiate simply because they are thugs). Conversely, if they lose the popular vote but win the election, the split outcome will not concern them at all - hypocrites. Personally, I find the popular vote an interesting footnote to history, but I do not want that statistic considered at all in deciding the election.
Charlie stop smoking that stuff! You are making a fool of yourself.
Yawn....
Cook is smoking some good s#%t!
More and more evidence that the looney left is giving up on winning the popular vote. An EV rabbit out of the hat trick is about all they have left.
My long prediction is that Obama will be lucky to get 40%.
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