Skip to comments.PPP polls: Romney ahead in NH, IA
Posted on 10/19/2012 10:33:30 AM PDT by cdchik123
-Mitt Romney leads our new New Hampshire poll 49-48. Obama had led by 6-8 pts in our polling before the first debate
-Romney has a 52/45 advantage over Obama in New Hampshire on the economy
-NH voters think Obama won debate by 8 pts, still support Romney by 1. Democrats need to accept debate this week was not a big game changer
-Romney leads Obama 49-48 in Iowa as well, although Obama does have a 66/32 early vote lead there
-Iowa voters think Obama won this week's debate 45/36, similar to New Hampshire, but not having a big impact on the head to head
-We've found most of Obama's October drop has been with white voters, so makes sense he's had a particularly big decline in IA and NH
No surprise there.
And Romney will carry WI as well.
Here’s something else that was just posted on Twitter. (if you like it and think it deserves its own thread feel free to post it)
AWESOME VIDEO! 5 REASONS NOT TO VOTE FOR OBAMA
The wheels are coming off!
Doesn’t seem like that firewall thingy is working very good.
They are racist, talking about no Black voters in NH.
When I lived there in 1988, there was a black guy. I remember it clearly. Because they would not allow him into the American Legion in Manchester. And yes...they told him it was because he was black.
But there were black folk there.
Could someone explain how it is known who leads in early voting? Are the counted and released or is the estimate by party voted? I know a number of Dims who are voting for Romney.
The PPP national poll has O winning today.
We all agree the poll is garbage.
For consistency sake I will consider this garbage as well.
no one knows. It’s probably based on who returned absentee ballots. Not sure what else it could be. saying that Obama has that lead also makes me wonder how they are counting independents.
Twitter ? this needs to get out to Rush, Drudge, Mark Levin, all the new Media.
Party affiliation of Dims and Indies may not show anything if how they vote is unknown. Thanks.
“Could someone explain how it is known who leads in early voting?”
A couple of Elections officials talked about that on Fox. Nobody actually knows who leads. They do know who has cast ballots — it’s public information. They then match those names (voter info is also public information) to the declared parties and do a WAG. They assume voters cast ballots for the guy in their declared party.
A tiny sample of their polled people who said they already voted.
But, it’s ridiculous to assume anything based upon such a tiny sample no matter what it says. And furthermore, they are way off considering the fact that all the polls show huge numbers of “already voted” compared to what state records actually show.
Did F Chuck admit to this? He always seems to be over sampling.
Were up to three now.
Do Red Sox and Celtics players count ?
In other news:
Liberal heads explode, unexpectedly, all over the country and especially in DC......................
That’s actually on average a pretty reasonable guess.
They can't know the actual vote, because those ballots aren't opened and counted until election day.
However, there are counts of a.) how many absentee (or early vote) ballots have been sent out to voters registered with a given party and b.) how many of these ballots have been returned.
A claim that the "early vote" is 66/32 Obama/Romney would probably be based on the number of Democrat vs Republican ballots returned.
Obama is only winning buy a point with a voter breakdown of:
Dem 41/Rep 37/Ind 22.
I think that bodes well for Romney.
h was on Morning Joe saying the early voting is throwing the polls off.
https://twitter.com/adrian_gray analyzed NBC’s polls and said the early vote is screwed up in their poll, and Todd responded he agreed.
And yet F Chuck always says that his polls are the gold standard.
The mechanism to determine this is fairly straight-Forward:
Noticed when Hillary was making her video speech when she came to “ we had nothing to do with this video “ she had that Chester Cat smile on her face ? she cracked a smile while saying that line... watch the video again... she’s lying.
Hillary : can we have a re-set button here please ?
Red Sox? Did Boston have a baseball team this year. I recall hearing something about in April, but then nothing.
strange, just a day or two ago there was a poll saying Obama was up by 7 in Iowa
She looks very familiar. She looks just like a woman I worked with in Tucson. She came from the great lakes part of the country and we were politically on the same side. I think her name was Janet or Janice too. Most likely just a coincidence.
Not trying to start anything, but PPP isn’t known for reliability, are they?
Everyone knows Boston sports figures go to Rhode Island for leisure activities.
NH— R34 D28 I38
Iowa- R45 D43 I13
Well, she did a nice job. Thanks for the mention.
There are enough black people in IA that they showed up en masse in Des Moines for “Kill Whitey Night” at the Fair.
They live in NH but go to Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun for fun in CT.
So they skewed R this time. It may be a rope-a-dope.
Yes, they play in Pawtucket, RI.
” A claim that the “early vote” is 66/32 Obama/Romney would probably be based on the number of Democrat vs Republican ballots returned”
No, those numbers, which happened in 2 polls now, one in Ohoi and one in Iowa, is based on the subsample of the poll, they polls and a fraction of those polled in that voted early ... and because it is a SMALL subsample the margin of error is huge. example: if 5% of the 500 voter sample voted early, then that is 25 people... so if 15 people said they voted O, 10 people voted R, then its a ‘huge Obama lead in early voting ... but switch just 5 votes and its the opposite!
The margin of error in a sample size of 25 is 15-20%!
In short the polls that were reporting that were reporting garbage. You cant conclude anything from such small samples.
If you want REAL DATA ON EARLY VOTING ... It would look like this:
“Colorado Republicans have so far cast more than 2,000 more ballots than Democrats since voting by mail began in the state.
Voting by mail began Monday and the Secretary of State’s office said Friday that so far 25,377 people have cast ballots. Of those, 10,884 are Republicans, and 8,516 are Democrats. Another 5,727 are unaffiliated voters.
Most of the mailed ballots so far come from conservative Douglas County, where 4,495 people have already voted. In competitive Larimer County, 3,899 voters have mailed their ballots.”
In the real world, the early voting is looking good for the GOP in Virginia, Colorada, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Man, a blowout win would be sweet. A COMPLETE TOTAL DEFEAT FOR SOCIALISM!!! That is what we need. Then dismantle Obamacare. We need the senate also. What are the current numbers for taking it back?
I want what you are smoking.
So, your claim of consistency is a false one.