Skip to comments.PPP polls: Romney ahead in NH, IA
Posted on 10/19/2012 10:33:30 AM PDT by cdchik123
-Mitt Romney leads our new New Hampshire poll 49-48. Obama had led by 6-8 pts in our polling before the first debate
-Romney has a 52/45 advantage over Obama in New Hampshire on the economy
-NH voters think Obama won debate by 8 pts, still support Romney by 1. Democrats need to accept debate this week was not a big game changer
-Romney leads Obama 49-48 in Iowa as well, although Obama does have a 66/32 early vote lead there
-Iowa voters think Obama won this week's debate 45/36, similar to New Hampshire, but not having a big impact on the head to head
-We've found most of Obama's October drop has been with white voters, so makes sense he's had a particularly big decline in IA and NH
” A claim that the “early vote” is 66/32 Obama/Romney would probably be based on the number of Democrat vs Republican ballots returned”
No, those numbers, which happened in 2 polls now, one in Ohoi and one in Iowa, is based on the subsample of the poll, they polls and a fraction of those polled in that voted early ... and because it is a SMALL subsample the margin of error is huge. example: if 5% of the 500 voter sample voted early, then that is 25 people... so if 15 people said they voted O, 10 people voted R, then its a ‘huge Obama lead in early voting ... but switch just 5 votes and its the opposite!
The margin of error in a sample size of 25 is 15-20%!
In short the polls that were reporting that were reporting garbage. You cant conclude anything from such small samples.
If you want REAL DATA ON EARLY VOTING ... It would look like this:
“Colorado Republicans have so far cast more than 2,000 more ballots than Democrats since voting by mail began in the state.
Voting by mail began Monday and the Secretary of State’s office said Friday that so far 25,377 people have cast ballots. Of those, 10,884 are Republicans, and 8,516 are Democrats. Another 5,727 are unaffiliated voters.
Most of the mailed ballots so far come from conservative Douglas County, where 4,495 people have already voted. In competitive Larimer County, 3,899 voters have mailed their ballots.”
In the real world, the early voting is looking good for the GOP in Virginia, Colorada, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Man, a blowout win would be sweet. A COMPLETE TOTAL DEFEAT FOR SOCIALISM!!! That is what we need. Then dismantle Obamacare. We need the senate also. What are the current numbers for taking it back?
I want what you are smoking.
So, your claim of consistency is a false one.